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My NCAA Tournament Projection as of 5/15
Posted on 5/15/26 at 10:43 am
Posted on 5/15/26 at 10:43 am
1. UCLA hosting 32. Kentucky
2. Georgia Tech hosting 31. Jax St.
3. Georgia hosting 30. UCF
4. N. Carolina hosting 29. Oklahoma
5. Texas hosting 28. Boston College
6. Auburn hosting 27. Miami
7. Florida St. hosting 26. Arkansas
8. Alabama hosting 25. Oklahoma St.
9. Miss. St. hosting 24. Coastal Carolina
10. Florida hosting 23. Virginia
11. Southern Miss hosting 22. Cincy
12. Texas A&M hosting 21. Oregon
13. W. Virginia hosting 20. Tennessee
14. Nebraska hosting 19. Kansas
15. USC hosting 18. Wake Forest
16. Oregon St. hosting 17. Ole Miss
The SEC getting all 12 teams in as 1 or 2 seeds might be a stretch, but Kentucky deserves a 2-seed with the win last night… RPI of #27. DSR and KPI both at #26. There’s no reason to have Kentucky as a 3-seed like most projections have them.
Georgia is a lock for a national seed. If they lose the next two they’ll fall down to #7 or #8 but they should still be a lock.
Texas needs to win one more to lock up a National Seed only because losing a series to Missouri at home would be detrimental. But a series win will do it.
Auburn needs to win one this weekend to lock up a national seed. Two wins would move them up ahead of Georgia and Texas into the 4-spot. One win would probably put us anywhere from 6-8 depending on if Bama sweeps or not. If Auburn were to get swept we’d move down to #9 or #10 but should stay in front of Miss St and Florida no matter what.
Alabama needs just one more win to lock up a national seed.
Miss St and Florida are locks to host now but I think moving up into the top 8 is very unlikely barring a sweep this weekend and a very deep run in Hoover.
Texas A&M needs to win one this weekend to ensure they host. Two to be completely safe but one should do it.
Ole Miss is going to have to win their next 2 games in Tuscaloosa to host, IMO.
Tennessee and Arkansas are locked in as 2-seeds.
Oklahoma and Kentucky need to each win one more to lock themselves into a 2-seed.
All of the above are in the Tournament no matter what.
I really don’t see a path for LSU or Vandy short of winning the SEC Tourney.
One non-SEC note: I actually think Georgia Tech has an outside shot of passing UCLA for the overall #1 seed if they sweep Boston College and then win the ACC Tournament. It’s closer than many of the prognosticators out there want to believe.
2. Georgia Tech hosting 31. Jax St.
3. Georgia hosting 30. UCF
4. N. Carolina hosting 29. Oklahoma
5. Texas hosting 28. Boston College
6. Auburn hosting 27. Miami
7. Florida St. hosting 26. Arkansas
8. Alabama hosting 25. Oklahoma St.
9. Miss. St. hosting 24. Coastal Carolina
10. Florida hosting 23. Virginia
11. Southern Miss hosting 22. Cincy
12. Texas A&M hosting 21. Oregon
13. W. Virginia hosting 20. Tennessee
14. Nebraska hosting 19. Kansas
15. USC hosting 18. Wake Forest
16. Oregon St. hosting 17. Ole Miss
The SEC getting all 12 teams in as 1 or 2 seeds might be a stretch, but Kentucky deserves a 2-seed with the win last night… RPI of #27. DSR and KPI both at #26. There’s no reason to have Kentucky as a 3-seed like most projections have them.
Georgia is a lock for a national seed. If they lose the next two they’ll fall down to #7 or #8 but they should still be a lock.
Texas needs to win one more to lock up a National Seed only because losing a series to Missouri at home would be detrimental. But a series win will do it.
Auburn needs to win one this weekend to lock up a national seed. Two wins would move them up ahead of Georgia and Texas into the 4-spot. One win would probably put us anywhere from 6-8 depending on if Bama sweeps or not. If Auburn were to get swept we’d move down to #9 or #10 but should stay in front of Miss St and Florida no matter what.
Alabama needs just one more win to lock up a national seed.
Miss St and Florida are locks to host now but I think moving up into the top 8 is very unlikely barring a sweep this weekend and a very deep run in Hoover.
Texas A&M needs to win one this weekend to ensure they host. Two to be completely safe but one should do it.
Ole Miss is going to have to win their next 2 games in Tuscaloosa to host, IMO.
Tennessee and Arkansas are locked in as 2-seeds.
Oklahoma and Kentucky need to each win one more to lock themselves into a 2-seed.
All of the above are in the Tournament no matter what.
I really don’t see a path for LSU or Vandy short of winning the SEC Tourney.
One non-SEC note: I actually think Georgia Tech has an outside shot of passing UCLA for the overall #1 seed if they sweep Boston College and then win the ACC Tournament. It’s closer than many of the prognosticators out there want to believe.
This post was edited on 5/15/26 at 10:46 am
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Posted on 5/15/26 at 10:58 am to AUTiger789
Interesting how UGA jumped from 9 to 3 after beating AU in game one.
Posted on 5/15/26 at 11:02 am to Porter Osborne Jr
quote:
Interesting how UGA jumped from 9 to 3 after beating AU in game one.
Who had them 9th?
Posted on 5/15/26 at 11:03 am to AUTiger789
quote:
Kentucky deserves a 2-seed with the win last night… RPI of #27. DSR and KPI both at #26. There’s no reason to have Kentucky as a 3-seed like most projections have them.
If Kentucky loses the next 2 to Arkansas they'll be 13-17 in the SEC with an RPI around 30
They'll have series losses to:
South Carolina
LSU
Vandy
Missouri
Auburn
Ole Miss
Florida
Arkansas
wins:
Alabama
Tennessee
I'm not sure they'd be a lock to get in the NCAAT with that resume, much less get a 2 seed somewhere. They'd have series losses to the bottom 4 teams in the SEC and would have only won 2 out of their 10 SEC series.
Posted on 5/15/26 at 11:12 am to lsufball19
quote:
I'm not sure they'd be a lock to get in the NCAAT with that resume, much less get a 2 seed somewhere.
Well the projection is as of this morning, and I said they’d have to win one more game this weekend if they want to be a 2-seed.
Three series wins all against Tournamant teams along with 14 or more SEC wins should be enough to get a 2-seed… especially with a Top 27 rating in all 3 metrics. If they were to fall to a 3-seed with those numbers, it’s only because the committee felt they had to move an SEC team down to a 3. It would be a travesty
Posted on 5/15/26 at 11:13 am to AUTiger789
Pretty good projection imo
likely Super Matchups
Florida vs FSU
book it
Texas vs A&M
book it
Miss State vs X or UVA
I think they’ll put UVA in State’s regional or SR path if possible, so small change on this one
4 UNC vs OU or ARK
13 WVU vs TN
this group makes a lot of sense
6 Auburn vs 11 USM
makes sense to me, unless they can justify an Iron Bowl SR and make it work for everyone else
A lot of the rest falls into place once you figure out the above. Could maybe see a USC Vs UCLA SR to guarantee a southern cali school in Omaha
likely Super Matchups
Florida vs FSU
book it
Texas vs A&M
book it
Miss State vs X or UVA
I think they’ll put UVA in State’s regional or SR path if possible, so small change on this one
4 UNC vs OU or ARK
13 WVU vs TN
this group makes a lot of sense
6 Auburn vs 11 USM
makes sense to me, unless they can justify an Iron Bowl SR and make it work for everyone else
A lot of the rest falls into place once you figure out the above. Could maybe see a USC Vs UCLA SR to guarantee a southern cali school in Omaha
This post was edited on 5/15/26 at 11:18 am
Posted on 5/15/26 at 11:15 am to BigBro
quote:
makes sense to me, unless they can justify an Iron Bowl SR and make it work for everyone else
That would be absolute hell. Let’s hope not.
Posted on 5/15/26 at 11:22 am to AUTiger789
quote:
If they were to fall to a 3-seed with those numbers, it’s only because the committee felt they had to move an SEC team down to a 3. It would be a travesty
LSU missed the tournament entirely in 2011 with a top 25 RPI. I think calling Kentucky being a 3 seed a travesty is a bit much.
series losses to Vandy, South Carolina, LSU, and Missouri is just not good. Basically what Kentucky did this year was a good job of avoiding getting swept. They swept their first SEC series and have only won one series since. Their non conference SOS is 181. Only Missouri and UGA have a lower overall SOS than Kentucky. They had the easiest SEC schedule they could have asked for. Played the 4 worst teams and avoided UGA, Texas, State, and A&M (4 of the top 5)
D1 had Kentucky has one of the last 4 in coming into the weekend FWIW
This post was edited on 5/15/26 at 11:27 am
Posted on 5/15/26 at 11:32 am to Porter Osborne Jr
quote:
Interesting how UGA jumped from 9 to 3 after beating AU in game one.
If Georgie isn’t a top 3 seed then the committee needs to be fired. All of them. Who the hell had them at 9?
Posted on 5/15/26 at 11:37 am to AUTiger789
quote:
Who had them 9th?
You did with your formula in your previous thread.
Posted on 5/15/26 at 11:44 am to lsufball19
quote:
Only Missouri and UGA have a lower overall SOS than Kentucky. They had the easiest SEC schedule they could have asked for.
I get all that, but compare the alternatives for the last 2-seed.
Missouri State? RPI of #24 but DSR is just #49 and KPI is #39. They have 3 fewer Quad 1 wins than Kentucky and two fewer Q 1+2 wins. Their SOS is worse than Kentucky (#39 vs UK at #33). They haven’t won a series against a Top 100 team since the first half of March.
Mercer? They have an RPI of #29 but DSR is #44 and KPI is #51. They have only one Quad 1 win… six fewer than Kentucky.
UCSB? They seem to be a trendy pick to be paired with UCLA. Their RPI is #34, DSR #37, and KPI #38. They have three fewer Quad 1 wins than UK. Their SOS is way down there at #72. They have zero series wins against Top 75 opponents. They have series losses to #114 Hawaii, #115 Cal St Fullerton, and #142 UC Davis.
Kentucky will probably land as a 3-seed because of pressure to penalize the lower rated SEC teams and prop up mid-majors… particularly West Coast mid-majors. But no sane person can say that any of those resumes are better than Kentucky’s.
Posted on 5/15/26 at 11:51 am to Porter Osborne Jr
quote:
You did with your formula in your previous thread.
That was where the formula spit them out. That’s not where I said they would be seeded.
And I hate to break it to you, but using only metrics and paying no attention to conference record, the metrics still rate Georgia at #9 but the committee is going to reward them for 22+ SEC wins.
Right now I have Georgia at #3. If they win the series this weekend they should land at #3 or #4 depending on whethet they go 2-1 on the weekend or 3-0… also depends on what North Carolina does. If Georgia loses the next two, they’ll fall back behind Auburn and Texas if Texas sweeps Mizzou this weekend… likely landing in the 6, 7, or 8 spot again depending on how other teams do.
#8 is the floor for Georgia now IMO and the only way that happens is if they lose the next two and Texas, North Carolina, FSU, and Bama all sweep their series this weekend, which is highly unlikely to happen.
This post was edited on 5/15/26 at 11:53 am
Posted on 5/15/26 at 11:51 am to AUTiger789
As an, Arkansas fan I would rather be a 2 seed somewhere rather than host as a 15-16 seed. Not to put the cart before the horse, but I like our chances better going away in a Super against an 8 seed rather than going to UCLA or Georgia Tech.
Luckily, I think our loss last night locked us out of hosting contention.
Luckily, I think our loss last night locked us out of hosting contention.
Posted on 5/15/26 at 11:57 am to AUTiger789
quote:
And I hate to break it to you, but using only metrics and paying no attention to conference record, the metrics still rate Georgia at #9
Which metrics?
Posted on 5/15/26 at 12:02 pm to Porter Osborne Jr
quote:
Which metrics?
The metrics the committee will use.
RPI is their main driver and Georgia is still just #14. SOS is only #38. NC SOS is abysmal at #238.
DSR looks pretty good at #4 but KPI is only #7.
Georgia is #10 in Quad 1 wins and #14 in Quad 1+2 wins.
If you covered up the SEC W/L record, most anyone would look at those numbers and say you were looking at a team that was right around #10 or so in the country. Fortunately for Georgia the committee will reward them for 22+ conference wins in the nation’s best conference. But there’s no disputing the actual metrics on their own in no way point to a Top 3 national seed.
This post was edited on 5/15/26 at 12:04 pm
Posted on 5/15/26 at 12:32 pm to AUTiger789
Arkansas going to Hattisburg baw.
Posted on 5/15/26 at 12:36 pm to lsufball19
quote:
They'll have series losses to:
South Carolina
LSU
Vandy
Missouri
Auburn
Ole Miss
Florida
Arkansas
A series loss to LSU this year should be an automatic disqualifier from the post season.
Posted on 5/15/26 at 12:40 pm to TDsngumbo
quote:
A series loss to LSU this year should be an automatic disqualifier from the post season.
But its not womp womp
As your new coach would say “get your popcorn ready”
This post was edited on 5/15/26 at 12:41 pm
Posted on 5/15/26 at 12:42 pm to VFL67
quote:
As your new coach would say “get your popcorn ready”
Your coach would eat it
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