re: Most underrated week 3 matchup… State v USC

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If you cant move the ball against Towson, you arent going to move it against any SEC team

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Interestingly, the total on this game opened at 54.5 and has moved to 58.5, which is nearly the highest on the conference slate this week.

The line has fallen to USC -3.5, So I guess someone thinks this will be a high-scoring affair.

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The more people that pick State in this game, the more confident I get in SC. SC always chokes when they have high expectations or they are the favorite. They play much better as a team with an underdog attitude.

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I mean they’re still a 4 point favorite and I believe the line has moved half a point in their favor since Monday.

It’s a true toss up. I think both sides have valid reasons for thinking their team can win.

I think the Lebby offense this year is more functional than it’s ever been since he arrived at State. Probably significantly more functional. And he finally seems to have a defense that while maybe not great, they do seem to have a pulse and do a lot of little things well. They’ll give up yards but haven’t given up big plays and have clamped down when the ball gets in or near the red zone,

I think the game will be decided by which side can run the ball best with its RB’s. I think both QB’s will have their moments, but I think you will know a lot just from who has the better day between Bothwell and Fuller.

I have State winning this one by 3 or 4 simply because I trust Kamario as a passer a little bit more than I trust Sellers as a passer and I think that’s the difference in the end.

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I mean you downvoted the post

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I did no such thing; I don't know who did the 1 downvote.

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so you clearly didn't agree with the term "sneak" by

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Not entirely; I said we could do more than sneak by.

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8 of 9 isn't the only factor

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True, but it's not a predictor of future performance. Hardly a factor.

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hence why I also stated Taylor's first road SEC start

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This could matter; to what degree remains to be seen.

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and that SC is favored.

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by -3.5 to -4; barely better than homefield advantage.

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They're all factors.

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I give real weight to one out of the three. That one could diminish quickly if (and I emphasize "if") State's offense can keep doing what it is doing.

I think there are a number of ways this game could go beside USC by 10+ or State sneaking by.

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2. Go on the road and beat a mid level Big 10 team in Minnesota. Handled them handily, check

I think Minnesota is near bottom of big ten. There's a massive investment drop off after Nebraska, usc, osu, Mich, Indiana, ucla and Penn st in the big ten. Good win but usce should be a good bit more talented than the gophers. Likewise the gamecocks haven’t seen anything that could resemble a threat to them. In a nine game sec this is a must win for both schools. Loser probably goes on to have a disappointing season.

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I mean, mid Big 10 isn't saying much, but I'm basing that on their record last season. They finished 5-4 in the conference last season and won their bowl game against New Mexico. Conference wins were Rutgers, Purdue, Nebraska, Mich St, and Wisconsin. How they finish this year is anybody's guess, but I expect about the same.

They mainly represent a step up in competition over ULM and a limited indicator of a positive trend though that could sharply change as the season progresses. A team like South Carolina is another incremental step up in competition. How much of a step remains to be seen for both teams, but I'll agree it's a must win in the sense of the schedule doesn't get any easier so wins will be hard to come by.

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think the Lebby offense this year is more functional than it’s ever been since he arrived at State. Probably significantly more functional. And he finally seems to have a defense that while maybe not great, they do seem to have a pulse and do a lot of little things well. They’ll give up yards but haven’t given up big plays and have clamped down when the ball gets in or near the red zone,

I think the game will be decided by which side can run the ball best with its RB’s. I think both QB’s will have their moments, but I think you will know a lot just from who has the better day between Bothwell and Fuller.

I have State winning this one by 3 or 4 simply because I trust Kamario as a passer a little bit more than I trust Sellers as a passer and I think that’s the difference in the end.

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This is fair. The inverse is true for SC. The defense has traditionally been rock solid under White/Beamer, but wears down cos the offense has always been shite. 2024 the offense was *decent*, and as a result, SC won a lot of games.

This defense isn't quite as good as 2024, but it's solid, and the offense looks like it has a lot of life. Towson game was a mess all the way around because the WRs looked like they didn't want to be there, and 3 TDs were dropped. Will that get better on Saturday? Dunno. Looked like effort, so probably. Sellers looked sharp, and took over in ways he stopped doing for most of 2025; Shula may be a war criminal.

I will point out that SC has a handful of backs that they're rotating through. Fuller has been the starter, but Howell, Augustave, and the kid from Penn State have all played a good bit, and have all looked competent.

I'm pulling for Bothwell the rest of the year. Kid comes from a great family (I've gotten to know a few over the years), and has a bright future.

To me, the real match up is State's WRs and SC's secondary.

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didn't watch that game, but someone else mentioned a number miscues that contributed to his lack of stats. Maybe those get ironed out.

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The All22 is painfully clear that Sellers played very well against Towson, but his receivers utterly failed him. He hit Harbor 2x in the hands, in the end zone. Both were dropped. He hit Bennett on a perfect pass, Bennett just ran the wrong route, also in the end zone. Sellers chewed his arse out immediately afterwards.

He had 4 other drops that hit receivers directly in the hands. The lack of focus from the WRs was concerning, especially in that it wasn't just one that was off, it was several.

2025, the offense was a disaster, and it was plain to anyone watching SC football that the ingredients and the cook weren't working together. Two games is too small a sample size, but Briles and Sellers appear to be in much, much better shape than Shula and Sellers were.

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Brother he struggled against Towson.

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9 dropped passes including two in the EZ - the WRs were terrible last Saturday night - Sellers threw 19 completions in 23 attempts but unfortunately for Sellers only 10 were caught -

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I see KJ Jefferson 2.0 with a slightly stronger arm.

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Jefferson played 19 SEC games with Briles as his OC - he threw 26 TD and 2 INT those 19 SEC games with Briles - https://cfbstats.com/2022/player/31/1102597/passing/split.html

251 / 373 .672% in the 19 games 2020-2022 -

231 / 332 .695% as full time starter in 2021 & 2022 -

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I do not get the Sellers hype.

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FWIW, this is the 4th Lebby/Briles head-to-head match up.

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not Sellers fault, but maybe this isn't a good thing either given it was Towson

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It's not a good thing. Only thing I can figure is that the WRs were loafing and not taking the game seriously. Conversely, the offense was dialed in against Kent St. Regardless, the lack of production is a concern.

Much has been written about Sellers in 2025. All I'll say conclusively is that the offense was a poor fit for his skillset. Briles is his 3rd OC in 3 years. Sellers looked like dynamite in 2024. Like poo in 2025. Looks good, albeit small sample size, in 2026. We'll know more Saturday.