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Miss State Vs Bama 3rd down conversion
Posted on 9/29/26 at 4:43 pm
Posted on 9/29/26 at 4:43 pm
Its kind of interesting, if you take the average of the teams each has played, find the % difference that each defense held those teams below their average 3rd down conversion rate, and then take that average negative number difference for each team and apply it to their 3rd down conversion rate, then bama can expect to have a 38% conversion rate and Miss St can expect a 37% (rounding to the closest %). Very close
Bama on average holds teams 12.75% below their 3rd down conversion rate
Miss St on average holds teams 7.75% below their 3rd down conversion rate
Miss St averages 50% 3rd down conversion rate, Bama averages 45.83 3rd down conversion rate.
The florida state game is really skewing the numbers on this with only 4 games played, they converted 53% against bama but only average 41% on the season. We played terribly against them on defense.
Bama on average holds teams 12.75% below their 3rd down conversion rate
Miss St on average holds teams 7.75% below their 3rd down conversion rate
Miss St averages 50% 3rd down conversion rate, Bama averages 45.83 3rd down conversion rate.
The florida state game is really skewing the numbers on this with only 4 games played, they converted 53% against bama but only average 41% on the season. We played terribly against them on defense.
Posted on 9/29/26 at 5:11 pm to narddogg81
I just hope we keep it close. I feel like reality is gonna catch up this weekend.
I’ve seen this movie before
I’ve seen this movie before
Posted on 9/29/26 at 6:40 pm to narddogg81
quote:
Its kind of interesting
I’ll find it more interesting if we are somehow able to keep Kamario upright and healthy with our OL.
Posted on 9/29/26 at 8:56 pm to narddogg81
What’s the weather looking like?
Posted on 9/29/26 at 10:12 pm to Gifman
quote:
I just hope we keep it close. I feel like reality is gonna catch up this weekend. I’ve seen this movie before
Posted on 9/29/26 at 10:13 pm to narddogg81
State’s defense is not flashy whatsoever outside of the two starting corners that might be the best CB duo in the SEC. But the one thing they’ve done really well so far is tackle, and they’ve also limited teams once they get in plus territory.
So far I think this has been Arnett’s best coaching job in all the years he has been DC at State. I don’t think they’re especially talented overall but have they played sound football when they’ve needed to so far. Better against the run than I expected, too.
They are probably a good pass rusher away from being one of the better defenses in the league. That’s definitely the concern for me though, they haven’t gotten very much pressure and at times opposing QB’s have been able to sit back and pick them apart.
So far I think this has been Arnett’s best coaching job in all the years he has been DC at State. I don’t think they’re especially talented overall but have they played sound football when they’ve needed to so far. Better against the run than I expected, too.
They are probably a good pass rusher away from being one of the better defenses in the league. That’s definitely the concern for me though, they haven’t gotten very much pressure and at times opposing QB’s have been able to sit back and pick them apart.
Posted on 9/29/26 at 10:20 pm to Captain Falcon
quote:
They are probably a good pass rusher away from being one of the better defenses in the league. That’s definitely the concern for me though, they haven’t gotten very much pressure and at times opposing QB’s have been able to sit back and pick them apart.
Not good for State if Keelon has that kind of time. He's shown what he can do when he's comfortable in the pocket the past two weeks.
Fortunately for MSU, the 'Bama defense has no clue if they want to be borderline-elite or give up huge plays every other down, so it'll probably even out.
Posted on 9/29/26 at 11:02 pm to Gifman
quote:
I’ve seen this movie before
So has Bama...
Posted on 9/29/26 at 11:05 pm to morganwadefan
quote:
I’ll find it more interesting if we are somehow able to keep Kamario upright and healthy with our OL.
Or just run the ball because your back looks good & teams have run on Bama this yr
Posted on 9/30/26 at 12:07 am to Marktastic86
quote:
Not good for State if Keelon has that kind of time. He's shown what he can do when he's comfortable in the pocket the past two weeks.
Fortunately for MSU, the 'Bama defense has no clue if they want to be borderline-elite or give up huge plays every other down, so it'll probably even out.
I’ve no doubt that Russell is going to throw for plenty of yards. The key will be if State can limit explosive plays for Bama and hold them to FG’s or force turnovers in certain spots.
State is going to have score well into the 30’s, possibly into the 40’s to win this. Doable, but obviously going to be a big challenge. A wild thought nonetheless considering that State was doing good to break double digits against Bama in the Saban era. I think Mike Leach scored one TD in three years against Saban.
This post was edited on 9/30/26 at 12:08 am
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