Several SEC School Win Totals Expected To Fall In 2026

CBS Sports recently wrote about ten college football teams will be "hard-pressed to improve upon last year's regular-season success."

Out of those ten teams, four of them play in the SEC: Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, and Vanderbilt.

Texas A&M
2025 regular season wins: 11 | FanDuel win total: 8.5

The Aggies finally experienced a long-awaited breakthrough last year, reaching 11 regular-season wins for just the second time in program history. Following up on that won't be easy in 2026.

The conference grind gets heavier with the new nine-game schedule, and Texas A&M's SEC gauntlet is notably tougher than last year's. The roster took a hit, too.

The Aggies matched a program record with 10 selections in the 2026 NFL Draft. The transfer portal haul helps offset some of that, but a step back toward the mean is a realistic expectation. Since joining the SEC in 2012, Texas A&M has averaged 7.5 regular-season wins per year.

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Oklahoma
2025 regular season wins: 10 | FanDuel win total: 7.5

If the up-and-down tenure of Brent Venables has taught us anything, it's that consistency has been hard to find. The Sooners have alternated six-win and 10-win regular seasons during his first four years in Norman, making another dip seem like the logical next step.


Despite returning 14 starters (tied for second-most in the FBS) and welcoming back a healthy John Mateer, Oklahoma faces one of the nation's most unforgiving schedules. It wouldn't be surprising if the Sooners entered mid-October with three losses, facing road trips to Michigan and Georgia before the annual Red River Rivalry with Texas in Week 6. And the schedule doesn't ease up from there.

November features four more opponents in CBS Sports' post-spring top 25 (at Florida, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, at Missouri), leaving little margin for error if Oklahoma is once again fighting for a College Football Playoff berth.

Ole Miss
2025 regular season wins: 11 | FanDuel win total: 7.5

Imagine where this preseason win total would be if Trinidad Chambliss hadn't won his legal battle for another year of eligibility. Ole Miss is one of the mystery teams in college football, where momentum from last year's run to the College Football Playoff semifinals under Pete Golding could continue, or fade once reality hits without Lane Kiffin. He brought the program to new heights, perhaps benefiting from a weaker schedule by SEC standards the past two seasons. That's not the case in 2026, with Golding set to face six teams ranked in CBS Sports' post-spring top 25.

Vanderbilt
2025 regular season wins: 10 | FanDuel win total: 5.5

Diego Pavia authored arguably the greatest season by a quarterback in Vanderbilt history, leading the Commodores to a program-record 10 regular-season wins. Following up on that was always going to be difficult. Five-star true freshman Jared Curtis has all the physical tools to become the program's next star under center, but asking an unproven quarterback to immediately replicate Pavia's production in the SEC is asking a lot. Vanderbilt should remain respectable under Clark Lea, but matching last season's breakthrough feels unlikely as the Commodores transition to a new face of the offense.

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