I’m taking the under on Bama/Florida

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Florida has the better run game in theory

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I watched film and some reviews on both teams at work because that’s how boring my work is at times.

Both defenses have the advantage at the LOS. Will immediately make scoring harder.

Both offenses rely on big plays, but both teams can pressure enough to stop a lot of them from happening.

Bama won’t be able to use Stem routes often to confuse UF like they did vs Mercer and Miami(who got plenty of pressure as well).

Florida will turn it over at least twice. We also have weaknesses on outside pass rushers with Delance.

Florida will struggle to consistently run the ball on Bama unless they can stretch the field enough to force Bama back. Which Jones likely isn’t capable of consistently.

Both QBs are not able to progress reads quickly and effectively. Young is still new and it shows on breakdowns of him progressing. Add in the line had issues picking up blitzes vs Miami, and a hostile Swamp will make that significantly harder. Jones stares down his target, or tries to look off defenders and that almost always leads to a bad pass which is a damned if you do, damned if you don’t situation for him. Bryce also locked on reads often vs Merced it seemed but they were unable to make him pay for it.

Nick has hinted multiple times his team is not there yet. I suspect that shows on offense this game. UF doesn’t have an elite defense, but our strengths do stack up with Bamas weaknesses. Also UF has a very fast secondary as does Bama, which in theory should limit the consistency of big plays.

Bama is going to use screens and quick outs a lot this game. Florida has to press and force Bryce to move away from his first read. The run game has struggled because their line is pretty average by Bama standards. Force Florida’s corners to make plays outside and remove the Dline’s impact. Then go over top at the freshman corners. Elam is elite, the other side has issues ready to exploit. The middle of the field can be exploited too if Bama gets good match ups..which sadly they will.

Florida has to get to the edge and pray their big WRs can win their battles blocking corners. If they can it opens up the offense more and allows down hill runs with Pierce and Davis. Will be interesting to see if UF can get chunk plays outside the hashes with the QBs on options and make Bama choose their poison.

Now add in both Nick and Todd run odd blitz schemes which will confuse both QBs throughout the day. Young is smarter than Jones, but add in crowd noise and it’s much harder to communicate effectively with his line to find the Mik and adjust. Will be a decent amount of defenders unblocked towards the QBs this game.


TL;DR I think both offenses struggle a decent amount.

Bama likely wins..but I’m betting the under in that win.

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Both defenses have the advantage at the LOS.

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I haven’t watched Florida yet this year. How’s Newkirk doing on the DL?

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