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re: Hypothetical Playoff Scenario
Posted on 9/24/19 at 11:59 am to WG_Dawg
Posted on 9/24/19 at 11:59 am to WG_Dawg
quote:
1) You have absolutely lost your mind if you think oregon would be 11th in this scenario
Here is my reasoning:
1. Oregon would be one of 6 one-loss teams and they'd be one of just two of those seven without a win over a Top 12 team.
Georgia would have wins over Notre Dame, Auburn, and Florida
LSU would have wins over Texas, Auburn, and Florida
Wisconsin would have a win over Ohio State
Ohio State would have a win over Wisconsin
Oklahoma would have a win over Texas
Only Notre Dame and Oregon would be 1-loss teams without a Top 12 win under their belt. And Notre Dame's would have been in a true road game against Georgia, who would have beaten the one team Oregon lost to (Auburn) in a neutral site game.
On top of that, Texas would have only lost to Oklahoma and LSU.... with a win also over Oklahoma.
Auburn would have only lost to Alabama, LSU, and Georgia (all likely Top 6 teams) while they beat Oregon head-to-head.
Oregon having lost to the 4th best team in the SEC on a neutral field kinda hurts them despite having just one loss, IMO.
quote:
2) UGA would not be getting in. Texas would also have a lot better case than I think you give them credit for.
Why not? You'd have 1-loss Georgia, Ohio State, and LSU with the best shot at the 4th spot, IMO. None would have a conference Championship. Georgia and Ohio State would have one extra win compared to LSU, and Georgia would have played a much more difficult schedule than Ohio State.
This post was edited on 9/24/19 at 12:03 pm
1
Posted on 9/24/19 at 12:00 pm to Bench McElroy
quote:
one loss conference champion has never been snubbed in favor of a one-loss team that failed to win their conference in the CFB Playoff era. The teams that have gotten in who didn’t win their conference like 2016 Ohio State and 2017 Bama got in over two loss teams. In your scenario, Oregon will make the CFB Playoff along with Bama, Clemson, and Wisconsin. Plus it will take care of the headache of choosing between LSU and Georgia along with the other one-loss teams like OU and Ohio State.
If this were true, it would be a compelling reason for elite SEC teams not named Bama to look for weaker conferences to join. It may be true, but it isn’t right, and it isn’t good for college football.
This post was edited on 9/24/19 at 12:02 pm
Posted on 9/24/19 at 12:01 pm to BHMKyle
In that scenario, Clemson, Bama, and Wisconsin would definitely be in...
The fourth spot would come down to Oregon and UGA...while UGA would have the better resume, wouldn't surprise me to see the committee go with a 1-loss conference champion Oregon. The other two times that 1-loss non-conference champions made it to the play-offs, you had multiple Power 5 conferences with multi-loss champions...
The fourth spot would come down to Oregon and UGA...while UGA would have the better resume, wouldn't surprise me to see the committee go with a 1-loss conference champion Oregon. The other two times that 1-loss non-conference champions made it to the play-offs, you had multiple Power 5 conferences with multi-loss champions...
Posted on 9/24/19 at 12:03 pm to WG_Dawg
Georgia would be one of 3 teams in this scenario to have beaten 3 of the other teams on this list. It is clear how high their strength of record would be at this point. Also the fact that they made it to their conference championship gives them a clear leg up over a team like LSU, who also has a 3 wins against these teams. That leaves you comparing them, realistically, to Oregon, Ohio State, and Texas. Texas would have two losses in an overall weaker conference. Oregon would have lost to the only contender that they played. That leaves you with Ohio St. So to me, it comes down to a discussion between UGA and Ohio St. for that 4th spot.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 12:10 pm to BallsEleven
quote:
I think it would be possible just for the fact that UGA would immediately be coming off of a loss
it doesn't matter, we didn't win our conference.
Remember in 2017 how the big debate over the 4th spot was between bama (11-1, non conf champ) and OSU (12-2, big 10 champ)?
Remember who was an afterthought and not even mentioned in the discussion? Wisconsin..who was undefeated at 12-0 going into the big 10 champ then lost. They weren't even given a second's thought despite starting 12-0 becuase they didn't win their league. The committee has been pretty consistent all 5 yeras that you better win your conference to be considered, and if you don't you better hope that a conf champ out there has ROYALLY fricked up, which OSU did in '17.
bama and clemson are givens in this scenario. You'd then have a 1-loss non champ UGA against a 1-loss conf champ OU/UW. We wouldn't have a chance.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 12:11 pm to BHMKyle
quote:
Why not? You'd have 1-loss Georgia, Ohio State, and LSU with the best shot at the 4th spot, IMO. None would have a conference Championship.
you answered your own question. Conference champions are a massive, enormous deal to the committee. We've seen that time and time again.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 12:23 pm to BHMKyle
Alabama, Clemson, Wisc all in. Last spot will be out of LSU/Ga, but thinking LSU would get the nod.
LSU road win vs TX (B12 champ), close road loss vs Bama > close home win vs ND, close neutral (although basically home in ATL) loss to Bama. Yes Ga has an SEC East champ, but LSU would have that too if they were East and Ga West.
LSU road win vs TX (B12 champ), close road loss vs Bama > close home win vs ND, close neutral (although basically home in ATL) loss to Bama. Yes Ga has an SEC East champ, but LSU would have that too if they were East and Ga West.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 12:25 pm to BHMKyle
1. Bama
2. Clem's Son
3. Wisconsin
4. LSU
Here's why: Wisconsin would have avenged their lone loss. And is a major conference champ. Both things the Cmte likes.
LSU over Texas for obvious reasons.
LSU over UGA because LSU would have lost a close one at Bama, while UGA would have lost a more recent one to Bama on a neutral field.
LSU over Oregon because PAC12 not as respected as SEC.
LSU over ND because clearly better resume.
LSU over the other 1-loss non-conference-champs (OSU and OU) because better resume and better quality loss.
2. Clem's Son
3. Wisconsin
4. LSU
Here's why: Wisconsin would have avenged their lone loss. And is a major conference champ. Both things the Cmte likes.
LSU over Texas for obvious reasons.
LSU over UGA because LSU would have lost a close one at Bama, while UGA would have lost a more recent one to Bama on a neutral field.
LSU over Oregon because PAC12 not as respected as SEC.
LSU over ND because clearly better resume.
LSU over the other 1-loss non-conference-champs (OSU and OU) because better resume and better quality loss.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 12:35 pm to BHMKyle
This is really not as tough as you think it is. It will be Clemson, Bama, and Wisconsin for sure and then a debate between Georgia and Oregon.
The other teams is fluff that will be good for debates but won't really matter.
And the final answer will depend on how each of those two teams games end up during the season. Without knowing that, I'll give the edge to Oregon. But there's no respect for Pac 12, so if Georgia is dominant all year and loses a close one to Bama, they could easily get the nod.
The other teams is fluff that will be good for debates but won't really matter.
And the final answer will depend on how each of those two teams games end up during the season. Without knowing that, I'll give the edge to Oregon. But there's no respect for Pac 12, so if Georgia is dominant all year and loses a close one to Bama, they could easily get the nod.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 12:42 pm to BHMKyle
I know everyone will assume Clemson is in due to being undefeated, but if A&M winds up 7-5 (very possible), then Clemson would have gone the entire season without a game against a ranked opponent unless Virginia has a good year and they meet up in the ACC Title Game. All the other teams in your scenario would have faced multiple ranked teams. Hasn't the committee been clear that they want to see teams play tough schedules? Clemson's schedule would be on par with a 13-0 Boise State's schedule, and nobody would even seriously mention Boise for the playoff
Posted on 9/24/19 at 12:48 pm to castorinho
quote:Why does anyone think Oregon would even be in the discussion lol?
This is really not as tough as you think it is. It will be Clemson, Bama, and Wisconsin for sure and then a debate between Georgia and Oregon.
1) Lost to Auburn, who in this scenario is 4th or 5th in the SEC.
2) Won't have beaten anyone worth an actual frick. Maybe 2 wins over top 15 to 25 teams. No one who will be top 10 certainly not top 5 when this decision is being made.
EDT: PAC is out unless utter chaos ensues. Their only hope is Cal being undefeated, but even that is iffy because they barely scraped by Ole Miss, if they even really deserved that win idk.
This post was edited on 9/24/19 at 12:55 pm
Posted on 9/24/19 at 12:56 pm to PurpleandGeauld
quote:
Why does anyone think Oregon would even be in the discussion lol?
because they'd be 12-1, with the 1 being in week 1 against the SEC, and a P5 conference champion. It isn't rocket science.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 1:19 pm to BHMKyle
1. Bama
2. Clemson
3. Wisconsin
4. Georgia/Oregon/LSU are only ones to have a shot at #4 imo. Depends how dominating their other wins are, but I say UGA would get the nod.
2. Clemson
3. Wisconsin
4. Georgia/Oregon/LSU are only ones to have a shot at #4 imo. Depends how dominating their other wins are, but I say UGA would get the nod.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 1:20 pm to WG_Dawg
quote:Their resume would be crap. Ga, LSU, Ohio St would all have far better resumes and all would be ranked above Oregon by the committee. They have shown that conf champ <<< resume in their previous selections. Eyeball test + resume trumps conf champ. Ask Penn St.
because they'd be 12-1, with the 1 being in week 1 against the SEC, and a P5 conference champion. It isn't rocket science.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 1:29 pm to PurpleandGeauld
quote:
Their resume would be crap
A 12-1 P5 champ isn't necessarily crap. You can say "but they haven't beaten anyone!" and I'll agree with you but you can say that about clemson just abotu every year. Clemson will likely go into the playoffs 13-0 with their best win beinggg..who? A texas a&m team that will finish with at least 5 losses? But they're still a lock to be in, that's just how it goes.
quote:
Ga, LSU, Ohio St would all have far better resumes and all would be ranked above Oregon by the committee.
we would all have better wins but I think you're ignoring how important the committee values conference titles. It's a really big deal.
quote:
They have shown that conf champ <<< resume in their previous selections
they've shown that conference champs aren't the definitive, end all be all, and there is wiggle room under certain circumstances most notably OSU in 2017 since they had 2 losses. This would be a situation with 1 loss teams across the board (no 2-loss outliers), where a conf champ is massive.
quote:
Ask Penn St
the penn state in 2016 that had TWO LOSSES including one to a 5-loss pitt team? The one that was passed by a ONE LOSS ohio state with 4 high quality wins? There's nothing to ask them. Once again..if you have 2 losses you are virutally assured of not makign teh playoffs even with a conf title. It would take a VEYR RARE circumstance to do that ala auburn in 2017.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 1:30 pm to MStateDawg
quote:
I know everyone will assume Clemson is in due to being undefeated, but if A&M winds up 7-5 (very possible), then Clemson would have gone the entire season without a game against a ranked opponent unless Virginia has a good year and they meet up in the ACC Title Game. All the other teams in your scenario would have faced multiple ranked teams. Hasn't the committee been clear that they want to see teams play tough schedules? Clemson's schedule would be on par with a 13-0 Boise State's schedule, and nobody would even seriously mention Boise for the playoff
Boise is not a Power 5 school. Let's start there. Boise State has not won 2 or the last 3 national titles so that will affect the CFP. There is no way they leave out the defending national champs if Clemson is 13-0.
Just a few short years ago, FSU was a top 10 program, Louisville was ranked as high as #2, Miami was also ranked as high as number 2 and VaTech was a top 15 program....It's not Clemson fault these programs went to hell and then the SEC teams that we play are supposed to be great because they are in the SEC...
All we can do is beat the stuffing out of everyone we play...
Posted on 9/24/19 at 1:31 pm to BHMKyle
Clemson, Alabama, Wisconsin, Oregon.
I couldn't be mad at 4 undefeated or 1-loss conference champs getting in over other 1-loss teams no matter how strong they look.
If not Oregon, then the popular answer here would be LSU or UGA. They would have the same record against common opponents, 4-1. So I guess the eye test gets the nudge.
I couldn't be mad at 4 undefeated or 1-loss conference champs getting in over other 1-loss teams no matter how strong they look.
If not Oregon, then the popular answer here would be LSU or UGA. They would have the same record against common opponents, 4-1. So I guess the eye test gets the nudge.
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