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Hypothetical Playoff Scenario
Posted on 9/24/19 at 11:36 am
Posted on 9/24/19 at 11:36 am
So who gets the final Playoff Spot if the following scenario were to happen:
SEC: Alabama goes 13-0 and wins the SEC; Georgia goes 12-1, winning the SEC East but losing a close game to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game; LSU finishes 11-1, losing only to Alabama in Tuscaloosa in a very close game as well. Auburn finishes 9-3 with only losing to Alabama, LSU, and Georgia. Florida finishes 10-2, only losing to Auburn and Georgia.
BIG 10: Ohio State beats Wisconsin during the regular season, but Wisconsin wins the rematch in the BIG 10 Championship Game. Both teams finish 12-1 but the head-to-head matchup is split.
ACC: Clemson cakewalks to a 13-0 finish and at the end of the season, not a single one of their opponents is ranked in the Final Playoff Top 25 ratings
BIG 12: Oklahoma beats Texas in the Red River Shootout, but Texas gets revenge in the BIG 12 Championship Game. Oklahoma has an 12-1 record but played a very soft schedule, while Texas finishes 11-2 with the two losses coming to Oklahoma and LSU... Texas also claims the BIG 12 Championship
PAC 12: Oregon finishes 12-1, having won 12 straight and the only loss was in Week 1 to Auburn.
Notre Dame also finishes 11-1 with their only loss being to Georgia in Athens.
So in terms of resume, here would be the likely Final 12 teams in some order:
13-0 Clemson (ACC Champs)
13-0 Alabama (SEC Champs)
12-1 Wisconsin (loss to Ohio St.; BIG 10 Champs)
12-1 Ohio St. (loss to Wisconsin)
12-1 Georgia (loss to Alabama)
12-1 Oklahoma (loss to Texas)
11-1 Oregon (loss to Auburn; PAC 12 Champs)
11-1 LSU (loss to Alabama)
11-1 Notre Dame (loss to Georgia)
11-2 Texas (losses to Oklahoma and LSU; BIG 12 Champs)
9-3 Florida (losses to Georgia, LSU, Auburn)
9-3 Auburn (losses to Alabama, Georgia, and LSU)
That would be 12 teams with losses only to each other. How would you rank the teams 1-12 if that were the scenario?
Here are the real dilemmas?
BIG 10: Wisconsin and Ohio State would both be 12-1 each having beat and lost to each other. Wisconsin would have a BIG 10 Title which is supposedly worth something, however Ohio State is a traditional power that plays in the more difficult division of the Big 10.
SEC: Alabama obviously is the #1 seed in the playoff, but LSU and Georgia would both be 1-loss teams with their only loss being to Alabama. LSU would have won on the road at Texas while Georgia would have won at home against Notre Dame. Both teams would have played and beat Auburn, though Georgia would have won on the road vs. LSU beating Auburn at home. Both teams would have defeated Florida, with LSU beating them at home while Georgia would have done it on a neutral field.
BIG 12: Both Texas and Oklahoma would have split games against each other. Texas would have 2 losses to Oklahoma's one, but only by virtue of losing a close game to a very good team in LSU, while Oklahoma played only cupcakes out of conference. Texas would also have the BIG 12 Championship which is supposedly worth something. Is Texas penalized for playing a difficult schedule?
SEC: Alabama goes 13-0 and wins the SEC; Georgia goes 12-1, winning the SEC East but losing a close game to Alabama in the SEC Championship Game; LSU finishes 11-1, losing only to Alabama in Tuscaloosa in a very close game as well. Auburn finishes 9-3 with only losing to Alabama, LSU, and Georgia. Florida finishes 10-2, only losing to Auburn and Georgia.
BIG 10: Ohio State beats Wisconsin during the regular season, but Wisconsin wins the rematch in the BIG 10 Championship Game. Both teams finish 12-1 but the head-to-head matchup is split.
ACC: Clemson cakewalks to a 13-0 finish and at the end of the season, not a single one of their opponents is ranked in the Final Playoff Top 25 ratings
BIG 12: Oklahoma beats Texas in the Red River Shootout, but Texas gets revenge in the BIG 12 Championship Game. Oklahoma has an 12-1 record but played a very soft schedule, while Texas finishes 11-2 with the two losses coming to Oklahoma and LSU... Texas also claims the BIG 12 Championship
PAC 12: Oregon finishes 12-1, having won 12 straight and the only loss was in Week 1 to Auburn.
Notre Dame also finishes 11-1 with their only loss being to Georgia in Athens.
So in terms of resume, here would be the likely Final 12 teams in some order:
13-0 Clemson (ACC Champs)
13-0 Alabama (SEC Champs)
12-1 Wisconsin (loss to Ohio St.; BIG 10 Champs)
12-1 Ohio St. (loss to Wisconsin)
12-1 Georgia (loss to Alabama)
12-1 Oklahoma (loss to Texas)
11-1 Oregon (loss to Auburn; PAC 12 Champs)
11-1 LSU (loss to Alabama)
11-1 Notre Dame (loss to Georgia)
11-2 Texas (losses to Oklahoma and LSU; BIG 12 Champs)
9-3 Florida (losses to Georgia, LSU, Auburn)
9-3 Auburn (losses to Alabama, Georgia, and LSU)
That would be 12 teams with losses only to each other. How would you rank the teams 1-12 if that were the scenario?
Here are the real dilemmas?
BIG 10: Wisconsin and Ohio State would both be 12-1 each having beat and lost to each other. Wisconsin would have a BIG 10 Title which is supposedly worth something, however Ohio State is a traditional power that plays in the more difficult division of the Big 10.
SEC: Alabama obviously is the #1 seed in the playoff, but LSU and Georgia would both be 1-loss teams with their only loss being to Alabama. LSU would have won on the road at Texas while Georgia would have won at home against Notre Dame. Both teams would have played and beat Auburn, though Georgia would have won on the road vs. LSU beating Auburn at home. Both teams would have defeated Florida, with LSU beating them at home while Georgia would have done it on a neutral field.
BIG 12: Both Texas and Oklahoma would have split games against each other. Texas would have 2 losses to Oklahoma's one, but only by virtue of losing a close game to a very good team in LSU, while Oklahoma played only cupcakes out of conference. Texas would also have the BIG 12 Championship which is supposedly worth something. Is Texas penalized for playing a difficult schedule?
This post was edited on 9/24/19 at 11:41 am
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Posted on 9/24/19 at 11:39 am to BHMKyle
Your hypothetical is already fricked because if LSU goes 11-1 with the loss to bama, then Florida would have a loss to LSU and be 9-3
This post was edited on 9/24/19 at 11:41 am
Posted on 9/24/19 at 11:40 am to NashvilleTiger09
You are right. I'll correct.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 11:41 am to BHMKyle
Texas is for sure out in this scenario with 2 losses.
In your scenario, there's no way a 2 loss Texas beats out any of the others here
In your scenario, there's no way a 2 loss Texas beats out any of the others here
Posted on 9/24/19 at 11:43 am to BHMKyle
No telling what they playoff committee would do. Some very tough decisions to make. I dont think they could keep out LSU and UGA. 1 gets in, Wisconsin for sure... but the 4th is tough.
Edit: I am dumb. Clemson duh. Alabama, Clemson, Wisconsin, LSU/UGA
Edit: I am dumb. Clemson duh. Alabama, Clemson, Wisconsin, LSU/UGA
This post was edited on 9/24/19 at 11:48 am
Posted on 9/24/19 at 11:44 am to BHMKyle
Not sure why you even included AU with 3 losses lol.
Bama is obvious
Clemson is obvious
Oregon at 12-1, P5 Champ, and quality loss in week 1 would go
That leaves Texas and Wisconsin as your last option, and I think the committee would defer to UW having just 1 loss.
There is precedent for a 2 loss team to go, considering 2017 AU would have been a mortal lock had they beaten us in the SECCG. But Texas isn't getting in over another P5 champ with 1 loss that just beat OSU.
Bama is obvious
Clemson is obvious
Oregon at 12-1, P5 Champ, and quality loss in week 1 would go
That leaves Texas and Wisconsin as your last option, and I think the committee would defer to UW having just 1 loss.
There is precedent for a 2 loss team to go, considering 2017 AU would have been a mortal lock had they beaten us in the SECCG. But Texas isn't getting in over another P5 champ with 1 loss that just beat OSU.
This post was edited on 9/24/19 at 11:46 am
Posted on 9/24/19 at 11:44 am to BHMKyle
I'm going to guess it would come out like this:
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Wisconsin
4. Georgia
5. Ohio St.
6. LSU
7. Oklahoma
8. Notre Dame
9. Texas
10. Auburn
11. Oregon
12. Florida
... It would also get real interesting if Clemson struggled in 3-4 games yet still managed to go unbeaten. It would be a shame if Clemson were to get a spot while playing nobody while a team like LSU with wins three wins over Top 12 teams and one loss to the overall #1 team got left out.
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Wisconsin
4. Georgia
5. Ohio St.
6. LSU
7. Oklahoma
8. Notre Dame
9. Texas
10. Auburn
11. Oregon
12. Florida
... It would also get real interesting if Clemson struggled in 3-4 games yet still managed to go unbeaten. It would be a shame if Clemson were to get a spot while playing nobody while a team like LSU with wins three wins over Top 12 teams and one loss to the overall #1 team got left out.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 11:45 am to BHMKyle
Your scenario assumes no major upsets will happen. If there's one thing college football always provides, it upsets. It's what makes the game so great.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 11:46 am to WG_Dawg
quote:
Not sure why you even included AU with 3 losses lol.
Auburn and Florida were included to show the overall strength of the SEC.
Georgia and LSU would each have 3 wins against Top 12 teams and a loss only to the #1 overall team, yet at least one of those would be left out of the playoff in all likelihood. Meanwhile a team like Clemson woudld have played zero Top 25 teams yet somehow get the benefit of the doubt.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 11:46 am to BHMKyle
quote:
I'm going to guess it would come out like this:
1. Alabama
2. Clemson
3. Wisconsin
4. Georgia
5. Ohio St.
6. LSU
7. Oklahoma
8. Notre Dame
9. Texas
10. Auburn
11. Oregon
You are usually extremely rational on here and I appreciate that. But
1) You have absolutely lost your mind if you think oregon would be 11th in this scenario
2) UGA would not be getting in. Texas would also have a lot better case than I think you give them credit for.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 11:47 am to BHMKyle
Bama
Clemson
Wisc
ND...or Georgia (UGA would have a very recent loss in this scenario)
Best guess...because that’s all it is at this point.
Clemson
Wisc
ND...or Georgia (UGA would have a very recent loss in this scenario)
Best guess...because that’s all it is at this point.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 11:48 am to WG_Dawg
quote:
Oregon at 12-1, P5 Champ, and quality loss in week 1 would go
You think they'd go over a 12-1 Wisconsin or 12-1 Ohio State? The PAC 12 is weak this year.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 11:49 am to BHMKyle
quote:
Hypothetical Playoff Scenario
Clemson and Bama both undefeated are in .
Georgia and Oregon the other two.
Oregon would have won 12 in a row , I assume you meant they were 12-1 not 11-1.
I believe Georgia would pe picked over Ohio St or Wisconsin.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 11:49 am to BHMKyle
Man, that's tough, but I'd have to say...
1. Bama
2. Wisconsin
3. Clemson
4. Georgia, (maybe Ohio State)
5. UGA/OSU
6. LSU
7. Texas
8. Oregon
9. Oklahoma
10. Notre Dame
11. Auburn
12. Florida
I don't think they'd leave Clemson out in this scenario, but maybe this is the year when they finally punish a pitiful schedule. I think the discussion comes down to UGA and Ohio St. in this scenario for that 4th spot. I could see them picking UGA for playing a bit of a harder schedule, (and looking good while doing it), but they may or may not think Ohio St. was the better team. Truly a sticky situation.
1. Bama
2. Wisconsin
3. Clemson
4. Georgia, (maybe Ohio State)
5. UGA/OSU
6. LSU
7. Texas
8. Oregon
9. Oklahoma
10. Notre Dame
11. Auburn
12. Florida
I don't think they'd leave Clemson out in this scenario, but maybe this is the year when they finally punish a pitiful schedule. I think the discussion comes down to UGA and Ohio St. in this scenario for that 4th spot. I could see them picking UGA for playing a bit of a harder schedule, (and looking good while doing it), but they may or may not think Ohio St. was the better team. Truly a sticky situation.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 11:51 am to BallsEleven
No shot if the committee was choosing between ND and UGA with UGA's only loss being in the Conf Championship to #1 seed, would ND get in. If LSU loses a close one in Tuscaloosa, but rolls through the rest of their schedule, they should backdoor their way in after UGA goes down in the SEC Championship game.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 11:51 am to BHMKyle
A one loss conference champion has never been snubbed in favor of a one-loss team that failed to win their conference in the CFB Playoff era. The teams that have gotten in who didn’t win their conference like 2016 Ohio State and 2017 Bama got in over two loss teams. In your scenario, Oregon will make the CFB Playoff along with Bama, Clemson, and Wisconsin. Plus it will take care of the headache of choosing between LSU and Georgia along with the other one-loss teams like OU and Ohio State.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 11:53 am to BHMKyle
quote:
You think they'd go over a 12-1 Wisconsin
I said I think UW would go. It'd be bama/clemson/oregon/uw
quote:
or 12-1 Ohio State?
yes, they didn't win their conference.
OSU- non conf champ. 1 loss late in season to a good team
Oregon- conf champ. 1 loss early to a good team
Posted on 9/24/19 at 11:53 am to BHMKyle
Is this post sponsored by Tylenol? Cuz my head hearts after reading it.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 11:54 am to atomic31
I'm not sure why so many people think UGA would make it. I think people are far, far too hung up on 2017 bama getting in while not realizing that Ohio State had 2 losses that year.
If you've got a 12-1 UGA that didn't win their conference, compared to other 12-1 teams that did win their P5 conference...we aint getting in.
If you've got a 12-1 UGA that didn't win their conference, compared to other 12-1 teams that did win their P5 conference...we aint getting in.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 11:54 am to NashvilleTiger09
I think it would be possible just for the fact that UGA would immediately be coming off of a loss and they could always use the "but ND has improved since then!" Plus it would give them an excuse to avoid 2 SEC teams.
I still think UGA would get in over LSU for the simple fact that they have comparable schedules, the same loss to the same team, but UGA would have the East championship.
I still think UGA would get in over LSU for the simple fact that they have comparable schedules, the same loss to the same team, but UGA would have the East championship.
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