re: Going forward, how often do you think it’s realistic for your team to make the playoffs?

Appearances by SEC team had the 12 team playoff been in effect since 2014:

Alabama 8/10 (80%) (2014, 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2020, 2021, 2023)

Georgia 7/10 (70%) (2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023)


Ole Miss 3/10 (30%) (2014, 2021, 2023)

Florida 3/10 (30%) (2018, 2019, 2020)

LSU 2/10 (20%) (2018, 2019)

Mississippi State 1/10 (10%) (2014)

Auburn 1/10 (10%) (2017)

Texas A&M 1/10 (10%) (2020)

Tennessee 1/10 (10%) (2022)

Missouri 1/10 (10%) (2023)

Vanderbilt 0/10 (0%)

Arkansas 0/10 (0%)

South Carolina 0/10 (0%)

Kentucky 0/10 (0%)


Future members:
Oklahoma 6/10 (60%) (2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020)
Texas 1/10 (10%) (2023)


Alabama had continuity at HC the entire time and made 8/10 so as long as Saban is around I'm going to put Alabama at 80%.

I'll break down the other teams for fun.

Georgia 7/8 (87.5%) with Kirby but he only missed in year 1 so I'm going to say around 80% for them as well.

Ole Miss is at 30% and they were also only a spot or two out in 2015. They are 2/4 under Lane Kiffin. As long as Kiffin is there I don't think putting their odds at 25-30% is unreasonable.

Kentucky - Stoops has been there the whole time and has 0 imaginary 12 team playoff appearances so this is a safe 0%.

Vanderbilt - Modern ceiling was proven to be 9-4 under Franklin. 0%

South Carolina - Steve Spurrier could have made 3 in a row from 2011-2013 had I extended this exercise to the final years of the BCS. (Someone check if you want they could have been a bubble team in 11 and 12 depending on where the conference champs were all ranked) That said Spurrier ain't walking back through that door. 2%

Arkansas - Never been close to sniffing a 12 team playoff. Only appearance in the final CFP poll was 21st in 2021. That all said Petrino would have made a 12 team playoff had it existed in 2010 and 2011 and he's back running the offense. 5% (sail)

Auburn - Only 1 imaginary playoff appearance under Gus Malzahn. Hugh Freeze had 1 himself at Ole Miss. They combine for 2 in 10 years so I'm going to say 20%.

LSU - Coach O got them two bids. Les Miles and Brian Kelly have combined for 0. Kelly would have had 4 at Notre Dame in 8 years. I'm going to give LSU and Kelly the benefit of the doubt and assume moving forward he can match his 50% rate he had at Notre Dame.

Florida - Suck at hiring coaches. Everybody here hates on Dan Mullen unfairly. Mullen would have had their only 3 appearances in his 4 years. Sun Belt Billy ain't it. I'm going to assume they get the next hire somewhat right after he's fired next season and go with their 10 year number at 30% moving forward.

Oklahoma - Trending down. Their imaginary playoff appearances were in the Stoops / Riley eras in the Big 12. SEC is a whole new ball game and the jury is still out on Venables as a HC though they made a lot of progress this year. For safety I am going to stick Oklahoma at 35%.

Texas - 1 for 10 but Sark is 1 for 3 with a win over the SEC Champion. I think he will continue to do big things at Texas. I will actually put the Longhorns at 50% moving forward.

Mississippi State - Mullen would have made 1 so I'm going to throw them a bone and say 1% if this whole Lebby thing pans out.

Missouri - Drink is now 1 for 4. Program is trending up. Missouri also would have made a 12 teamer in the final year of the BCS Era. I'm going to put them at 20%.

Texas A&M - 1/10 and would have made a 12 team back in 2012 had it exited them as well. The one appearance was with Elko as DC. I'm going to take the safe route here and say 10-20%.

Tennessee - 1/10 They have the right coach for the job. Program is respectable again. Would have easily been in last year. I think 10-20% here is fine as well.

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Auburn - Only 1 imaginary playoff appearance under Gus Malzahn. Hugh Freeze had 1 himself at Ole Miss. They combine for 2 in 10 years so I'm going to say 20%.

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Auburn would have likely made it in 2019 and certainly would have in 2017 and 2013. All under Gus.

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Auburn would have likely made it in 2019

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They were ranked 12th. They would have been out because of the AQ Spots.

If we go back before the CFP 2013 is correct obviously. 2010 would have been another in recent memory if we want to further backtrack.

Not biased with your breakdown one bit are you. LOL
Tell ya what Big Al, the dawg should have learned to knock the ball down, your fat lineman should have learned and put forth the effort to tackle on a field goal (imaginary season) and we will teach our safety’s to help cover with the corner like he was suppose to do.
Game On!

Adding Texas and Oklahoma is going to reduce whatever we think the percentages should be. Even Bama should be content with 60-65% percent. Think about how many close games they had this year. Now add another tough conference game.

Ole Miss is making it's 4th NY6 bowl. Only Alabama and Georgia have had more in SEC and are 8th nationally for appearances.

Based off history, Ole Miss should be around 50%.

Any fan not from Alabama or Georgia, needs to lower their expectations. Looking at you Texas. You only managed to make top 12 twice and that was in the weak Big12. Your life is going to get much harder now, just ask your little brother. Aggie made it once and it took Covid to make it happen.

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Top 12 - LSU, UGA and Bama

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Ole Miss has more NY6 than LSU

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Ole Miss has more NY6 than LSU

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That's great! And LSU has 4x the national championships that Ole Miss does. Which would you prefer?

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Ole Miss has more NY6 than LSU

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6 since 1970

LSU has 18 in that same time.