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FiveThirtyEight's Projected First Round Winners
Posted on 3/12/18 at 8:47 am
Posted on 3/12/18 at 8:47 am
Likelihood of Winning in the First Round:
90.75%- Tennessee
79.88%- Auburn
75.74%- Kentucky
65.89%- Florida
58.21%- Texas A&M
40.68%- Alabama
39.62%- Arkansas
38.57%- Missouri
Chances of Winning 1st AND 2nd Round Games:
59.44%- Tennessee
41.76%- Auburn
39.83%- Kentucky
31.76%- Florida
12.88%- Texas A&M
9.17%- Missouri
9.03%- Arkansas
4.96%- Alabama
90.75%- Tennessee
79.88%- Auburn
75.74%- Kentucky
65.89%- Florida
58.21%- Texas A&M
40.68%- Alabama
39.62%- Arkansas
38.57%- Missouri
Chances of Winning 1st AND 2nd Round Games:
59.44%- Tennessee
41.76%- Auburn
39.83%- Kentucky
31.76%- Florida
12.88%- Texas A&M
9.17%- Missouri
9.03%- Arkansas
4.96%- Alabama
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Posted on 3/12/18 at 8:50 am to BHMKyle
Same website that projected Hillary to win.
I don’t believe in polls, percentages or algorithms on basketball games
I don’t believe in polls, percentages or algorithms on basketball games
Posted on 3/12/18 at 8:53 am to biggsc
Damn Russians
Posted on 3/12/18 at 8:54 am to BHMKyle
quote:
Same website that projected Hillary to win.
Posted on 3/12/18 at 8:56 am to biggsc
quote:
Same website that projected Hillary to win.
They hadn't factored in Russia in the algorithm.
Posted on 3/12/18 at 8:57 am to pioneerbasketball
Arkansas are yall gonna do anything or did I really screw up putting you in my Elite 8?
Posted on 3/12/18 at 9:00 am to RandySavage
Smart man.
Posted on 3/12/18 at 9:03 am to biggsc
quote:
Same website that projected Hillary to win.
I don’t believe in polls, percentages or algorithms on basketball games
Same website got every state right in the 2012 election and its not like they were that far off in 2016. Hillary did get more votes than Trump. Its a prediction based on math and statistics. Its not a 100% guarantee. You can choose not to believe in math but that doesnt mean it ceases to exist.
This post was edited on 3/12/18 at 9:04 am
Posted on 3/12/18 at 9:05 am to BHMKyle
The problem with game by game projections for a team like Alabama is that it is forced to take an average. In all likelihood Alabama either plays at the Top 10% range of their performance or the bottom 10% range.
Top 10% range probably beats Virginia Tech. Bottom 10% loses to Virginia Tech.
In terms of Villanova, they'll need a Top 10% game and need Nova to have an off shooting game (or at least half) to have a punchers chance in the last 3 minutes.
Top 10% range probably beats Virginia Tech. Bottom 10% loses to Virginia Tech.
In terms of Villanova, they'll need a Top 10% game and need Nova to have an off shooting game (or at least half) to have a punchers chance in the last 3 minutes.
Posted on 3/12/18 at 9:05 am to biggsc
quote:
Same website that projected Hillary to win.
Posted on 3/12/18 at 9:06 am to StopRobot
quote:
Its a prediction based on math and statistics.
Math is not a predictor when you just plug in the numbers that you want to use. Actual, real math is always right
Posted on 3/12/18 at 9:07 am to biggsc
quote:They are percentages based on data that have proven fairly accurate over a large sample size. That doesn't mean they get every projection correctly.
I don’t believe in polls, percentages or algorithms on basketball games
Posted on 3/12/18 at 9:08 am to Vecchio Cane
quote:
Math is not a predictor when you just plug in the numbers that you want to use. Actual, real math is always right
Why would you plug in the numbers you want to use? You think 538 wants to project Tennessee to win over being right? That makes no sense. Statistics are projections based on math knowing there is a degree of uncertainty
This post was edited on 3/12/18 at 9:10 am
Posted on 3/12/18 at 9:08 am to Vecchio Cane
quote:People seem to think if a team with an 80 percent chance of winning loses, then the math is bad. Could just be the 1 in 5 scenario happened.
Actual, real math is always right
Posted on 3/12/18 at 9:09 am to biggsc
quote:
I don’t believe in polls, percentages or algorithms on basketball games
Vegas does
Posted on 3/12/18 at 9:10 am to PearlJam
quote:
People seem to think if a team with an 80 percent chance of winning loses, then the math is bad. Could just be the 1 in 5 scenario happened.
Exactly.
Posted on 3/12/18 at 9:11 am to biggsc
quote:
Same website that projected Hillary to win.
I don’t believe in polls, percentages or algorithms on basketball games
They were one of the only ones who said it wasn't in the bag for Hilary and wrote a piece on it too
This post was edited on 3/12/18 at 9:13 am
Posted on 3/12/18 at 9:11 am to PearlJam
quote:
People seem to think if a team with an 80 percent chance of winning loses, then the math is bad. Could just be the 1 in 5 scenario happened.
Exactly. All they are telling us is the likelihood of something, based on their criteria
Posted on 3/12/18 at 9:13 am to Vecchio Cane
quote:
Math is not a predictor when you just plug in the numbers that you want to use. Actual, real math is always right
You clearly don't math good
Posted on 3/12/18 at 9:14 am to GenesChin
quote:
You clearly don't math good
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