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Posted on 11/21/22 at 1:36 pm to droliver
Alabama could lose to Cadillac's tigers.
Posted on 11/21/22 at 1:42 pm to TrueLefty
Would love to see South Carolina beat Clemson and Vanderbilt beat Tennessee. 
Posted on 11/21/22 at 1:44 pm to Tuscaloosa
Not that it will happen, but my God, the meltdowns here would be like a supernova if Bama just merely got in the playoff
Oh, this is much more likely right now, the Monday before the IB.
quote:
Alabama could lose to Cadillac's tigers.
Oh, this is much more likely right now, the Monday before the IB.
This post was edited on 11/21/22 at 1:45 pm
Posted on 11/21/22 at 1:55 pm to Tuscaloosa
quote:
I don’t think that’s true, statistically. If Michigan gets blown out by OSU especially, all bets are off, IMO.
Tennessee would get in over Alabama and they should. They beat Alabama.
Alabama has as close to zero % chance of getting in as you could get and I’m not sure why y’all would want to this year. Any team in the top 6 would beat the shite out of y’all this year.
Posted on 11/21/22 at 1:59 pm to Milf n Cookies
quote:
But, if they then won it all wouldn't you have to say they did it on the field?
You new to this? In their opinion, Alabama has never won anything on the field. The refs give it to them.
Posted on 11/21/22 at 2:01 pm to Tuscaloosa
I presume this is likely generated from X number of simulations (say, 10,000) where the computer saw an avenue for Alabama to be one of the top 4 teams (considering that, at the end of the day, that's pretty much the only real criteria you could give a computer based on the previous selections by the committee).
So in 97% of those simulations Georgia finishes in the top 4. The only outcomes where they don't are likely losing to both Georgia Tech and the SECCG, though there may be some quirk where they lose just one and someone leapfrogged them into the top 4 spot.
It's hard to see 15% of the scenarios where Alabama moves past enough teams to get to the top 4, though I imagine it has more to do with the following:
Alabama likely wins it's final game (Auburn)
Then:
Clemson falters against South Carolina or North Carolina (who would likely have had a somewhat decent shot before losing to Georgia Tech)
TCU loses to Iowa State (as #4, they can drop the easiest)
The Ohio State/Michigan loser adds another layer of potential, and the scenarios clearly favor OSU (but still think that the loser gets in).
USC loses to Notre Dame or in the Pac-12 CG (as the opponent in the Pac-12 CG isn't know for certain, it's probably a weighted average of Washington and Oregon and maybe Utah - would have to look up the tie-breaker scenarios for the PAC12 as Utah lost to Oregon but did not play Washington).
If you remove the human element and only consider "What path leads to moving above other teams into a top 4" then it has possibilities; it's just when you think about the fact that the committee will weigh other factors in that the computer does not that it becomes more apparent that Alabama's 15%$ "chance" is probably closer to 1-2% with those 1-2% of scenarios being just a massive dose of late-season chaos.
Is it "impossible"? No.
Is it "so unlikely that you have better odds winning the Pick 5"? Yeah, pretty much.
So in 97% of those simulations Georgia finishes in the top 4. The only outcomes where they don't are likely losing to both Georgia Tech and the SECCG, though there may be some quirk where they lose just one and someone leapfrogged them into the top 4 spot.
It's hard to see 15% of the scenarios where Alabama moves past enough teams to get to the top 4, though I imagine it has more to do with the following:
Alabama likely wins it's final game (Auburn)
Then:
Clemson falters against South Carolina or North Carolina (who would likely have had a somewhat decent shot before losing to Georgia Tech)
TCU loses to Iowa State (as #4, they can drop the easiest)
The Ohio State/Michigan loser adds another layer of potential, and the scenarios clearly favor OSU (but still think that the loser gets in).
USC loses to Notre Dame or in the Pac-12 CG (as the opponent in the Pac-12 CG isn't know for certain, it's probably a weighted average of Washington and Oregon and maybe Utah - would have to look up the tie-breaker scenarios for the PAC12 as Utah lost to Oregon but did not play Washington).
If you remove the human element and only consider "What path leads to moving above other teams into a top 4" then it has possibilities; it's just when you think about the fact that the committee will weigh other factors in that the computer does not that it becomes more apparent that Alabama's 15%$ "chance" is probably closer to 1-2% with those 1-2% of scenarios being just a massive dose of late-season chaos.
Is it "impossible"? No.
Is it "so unlikely that you have better odds winning the Pick 5"? Yeah, pretty much.
Posted on 11/21/22 at 2:03 pm to Tuscaloosa
quote:
I don’t think that’s true, statistically. If Michigan gets blown out by OSU especially, all bets are off, IMO.
The scenario that Bama needs to happen is:
-UGA beats LSU by any amount
-Ohio St clobbers Michigan
-TCU has to lose the Big12 Championship but ideally also to Iowa St
-Clemson loses the championship and probably has to lose to USC jr
-USC loses to ND and beats Oregon in the Pac 12 Championship
The first two I see happening
after that I can see one or two of those things happening, but not all of them.
Posted on 11/21/22 at 2:09 pm to skrayper
quote:
Is it "impossible"? No.
Is it "so unlikely that you have better odds winning the Pick 5"? Yeah, pretty much.
even in all the wacky, crazy, utterly ridiculous scenarios you can come up wtih that would give bama even an inkling of a chance...you're ignoring the fact that UT would still have a better resume and would go above bama. Both teams are 10-2. Both teams didn't win their division. Bama lost to the 2 best teams they played and their best win is...uh, texas? Not only does UT have a victory over LSU on the resume, they beat bama head to ehad.
So even if we have massive chaos bama is still at the back of the line
Posted on 11/21/22 at 2:11 pm to EasterEgg
quote:
A 2-loss non-conference winner isn't sniffing the playoffs
A 2 loss non division winner lol
Posted on 11/21/22 at 2:21 pm to WG_Dawg
quote:
even in all the wacky, crazy, utterly ridiculous scenarios you can come up wtih that would give bama even an inkling of a chance...you're ignoring the fact that UT would still have a better resume and would go above bama. Both teams are 10-2. Both teams didn't win their division. Bama lost to the 2 best teams they played and their best win is...uh, texas? Not only does UT have a victory over LSU on the resume, they beat bama head to ehad.
So even if we have massive chaos bama is still at the back of the line
The computer doesn't measure that - it will see that, most likely, Alabama is now ahead of Tennessee and each team has one game remaining. A game that Alabama is a bit more likely to win (94.5%) than Tennessee (93.2%).
The computer would simply see Alabama ranked above Tennessee, presume both teams win, and therefor has no reason to place Tennessee above Alabama in that scenario.
I'm not ignoring Tennessee at all; I'm simply stating that from a computer's perspective, a 9-2 team with 1 more incredibly likely win doesn't get many chances to jump above another 9-2 team with 1 more incredible likely win.
It's a simple simulation model that gets run thousands of times, and current it is running that scenario model based on Tennessee being ranked behind Alabama. It's not going to retroactively apply games already played - it will presume the playoff committee has already done so. If the committee goes against trend and keeps Tennessee above Alabama after getting wrecked by South Carolina, then the model will change drastically and Tennessee will almost assuredly flip with Alabama in those odds.
Posted on 11/21/22 at 2:37 pm to WG_Dawg
quote:The stinking Vols do indeed have a head to head. They also have heavy baggage dragging them down that Bama doesn’t have.
Not only does UT have a victory over LSU on the resume, they beat bama head to ehad.
They’ve gotten absolutely skulldrug in their two losses, the last by 25 to an unranked team. Add in losing Hooker for the season if it comes down to 10-2 Bama compared against 10-2 the stinking Vols I doubt even one person would think Bama isn’t the easy choice.
Posted on 11/21/22 at 2:38 pm to WG_Dawg
Rightly or wrongly UT will be punished bc their QB is hurt
Posted on 11/21/22 at 2:57 pm to Tuscaloosa
How in the hell do we have a 9% chance of making the playoffs?
Can someone explain this path? Not a chance. 0% chance of UT being in the playoffs.
Can someone explain this path? Not a chance. 0% chance of UT being in the playoffs.
Posted on 11/21/22 at 2:58 pm to SavageOrangeJug
Got that right
Posted on 11/21/22 at 3:49 pm to SavageOrangeJug
quote:
How in the hell do we have a 9% chance of making the playoffs?
Can someone explain this path? Not a chance. 0% chance of UT being in the playoffs.
See my two posts.
This doesn't account for perceptions of X, it merely lays out a possible path for Tennessee to finish in the top 4 (based on how often Tennessee wins their final game, how often teams lose above them, and statistically what is necessary for those teams to fall far enough for Tennessee to get in).
9% seems high, even given that specific course though, as it would require Tenn to gain 4 spots through other teams losing a combination of their last regular season games AND their championship games.
There's not some guy sitting at a computer going, "Well, we gotta add the 'lost to South Carolina' variable." All it looks at are current ranking and games remaining to be played by those ahead.
In 9% of the scenarios run enough of those teams lost by enough (or enough games) to drop below Tennessee for them to reach #4 or better. Probably something like 900 out of 10,000 scenarios or the like.
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