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Could Clemson still make the Playoff with a loss this weekend?
Posted on 12/16/20 at 9:51 am
Posted on 12/16/20 at 9:51 am
Current Rankings:
1. Alabama
2. Notre Dame
3. Clemson
4. Ohio State
5. Texas A&M
6. Iowa State
7. Florida
8. Georgia
9. Cincinnati
10. Oklahoma
11. Indiana
12. Coastal Carolina
13. USC
14. Northwestern
Assume the Following:
**#1 Alabama beats #7 Florida by 4 touchdowns or more. ALABAMA is SEC CHAMP
**#4 Ohio State beats #14 Northwestern by 4 touchdowns or more. OHIO STATS is BIG 10 CHAMP
**#10 Oklahoma narrowly defeats #6 Iowa State. OKLAHOMA is BIG 12 CHAMPS
**#13 USC narrowly defeats Oregon. USC is PAC 12 CHAMP
**Notre Dame narrowly defeats Clemson in a well-played, clean game that is back-and-forth for four quarters, with Notre Dame winning 31-30.
**#5 Texas A&M beats Tennessee by 2 touchdowns
At this point, the Top 3 becomes very easy:
1. Alabama
2. Notre Dame
3. Ohio State
But who is #4? It would come down to Texas A&M and Clemson.
Clemson would be 9-2 with both losses being close and away from home against a solid #2 Notre Dame team. Their biggest win would be over #18 Miami by 25 points.
Texas A&M would be 8-1 with the one loss coming in blowout fashion at Alabama (28 points). Their biggest win would be over Florida by just 3 points. If the Gators are blown out by Alabama, they'll likely slip to around #14 in the final rankings.
When analyzing opponents, Alabama and Notre Dame would be very close together. Clemson would have lost to Notre Dame twice (once without their starting QB), both times by very thin margins. That would prove IMO that Clemson is very close to being on par with those other two top teams. Meanwhile Aggie was destroyed when they faced one of those top teams.
If Florida is blown out by Bama... just one week after losing to a bad LSU team... Florida and Miami will also be very closely ranked together. Clemson would have blown out Miami by 25 points while Texas A&M would have narrowly defeated the Gators by just 3 points.
I think Clemson might still get the nod, and here's why:
1. Comparing performance against similar opponents, Clemson would have been more impressive despite an extra loss.
2. Clemson played 2 extra games
3. One of their losses was without their starting QB
4. Since we're trying to pick a team for the #4 spot who would be paired to play Bama, the Bama-Texas A&M game would have already happened and we know how lopsided it was. Clemson-Bama would be a game that more people would want to see, and its a game that hasn't yet been played.
1. Alabama
2. Notre Dame
3. Clemson
4. Ohio State
5. Texas A&M
6. Iowa State
7. Florida
8. Georgia
9. Cincinnati
10. Oklahoma
11. Indiana
12. Coastal Carolina
13. USC
14. Northwestern
Assume the Following:
**#1 Alabama beats #7 Florida by 4 touchdowns or more. ALABAMA is SEC CHAMP
**#4 Ohio State beats #14 Northwestern by 4 touchdowns or more. OHIO STATS is BIG 10 CHAMP
**#10 Oklahoma narrowly defeats #6 Iowa State. OKLAHOMA is BIG 12 CHAMPS
**#13 USC narrowly defeats Oregon. USC is PAC 12 CHAMP
**Notre Dame narrowly defeats Clemson in a well-played, clean game that is back-and-forth for four quarters, with Notre Dame winning 31-30.
**#5 Texas A&M beats Tennessee by 2 touchdowns
At this point, the Top 3 becomes very easy:
1. Alabama
2. Notre Dame
3. Ohio State
But who is #4? It would come down to Texas A&M and Clemson.
Clemson would be 9-2 with both losses being close and away from home against a solid #2 Notre Dame team. Their biggest win would be over #18 Miami by 25 points.
Texas A&M would be 8-1 with the one loss coming in blowout fashion at Alabama (28 points). Their biggest win would be over Florida by just 3 points. If the Gators are blown out by Alabama, they'll likely slip to around #14 in the final rankings.
When analyzing opponents, Alabama and Notre Dame would be very close together. Clemson would have lost to Notre Dame twice (once without their starting QB), both times by very thin margins. That would prove IMO that Clemson is very close to being on par with those other two top teams. Meanwhile Aggie was destroyed when they faced one of those top teams.
If Florida is blown out by Bama... just one week after losing to a bad LSU team... Florida and Miami will also be very closely ranked together. Clemson would have blown out Miami by 25 points while Texas A&M would have narrowly defeated the Gators by just 3 points.
I think Clemson might still get the nod, and here's why:
1. Comparing performance against similar opponents, Clemson would have been more impressive despite an extra loss.
2. Clemson played 2 extra games
3. One of their losses was without their starting QB
4. Since we're trying to pick a team for the #4 spot who would be paired to play Bama, the Bama-Texas A&M game would have already happened and we know how lopsided it was. Clemson-Bama would be a game that more people would want to see, and its a game that hasn't yet been played.
20
Posted on 12/16/20 at 9:53 am to BHMKyle
Clemson
Alabama
Notre Dame
All make it with a loss, too much money involved for anything else to happen
Alabama
Notre Dame
All make it with a loss, too much money involved for anything else to happen
Posted on 12/16/20 at 9:53 am to BHMKyle
No
Posted on 12/16/20 at 9:56 am to BHMKyle
No dont think so. But they will win.
Posted on 12/16/20 at 9:56 am to BHMKyle
tOSU should be out, period.
Posted on 12/16/20 at 9:56 am to BHMKyle
quote:That'd be joined at the hip with impossible!.......it ain't gonna happen.
Could Clemson still make the Playoff with a loss this weekend?
Posted on 12/16/20 at 10:00 am to BHMKyle
I don't see a scenario in which Clemson is given a third crack at Notre Dame.
This post was edited on 12/16/20 at 10:24 am
Posted on 12/16/20 at 10:01 am to BHMKyle
no
Posted on 12/16/20 at 10:01 am to BHMKyle
A two loss team without a conference championship skin is not going to get in over a 1 loss A&M, undefeated Cincy, or even a 2 loss OU/ISU conference champion. That doesn't mean that they wouldn't be "one of the 4 best teams", I think most would agree (assuming another close loss) that they would be, but you can't lose twice in this format and make it in the playoff.
Posted on 12/16/20 at 10:01 am to BHMKyle
They will have gotten two chances to defeat what would be a CFB Playoff team and failed both times. They will not be given a third chance.
Posted on 12/16/20 at 10:10 am to BHMKyle
They can, yes.
Posted on 12/16/20 at 10:11 am to LSU Patrick
quote:
tOSU should be out, period.
I don't know. I mean if they pummel Northwestern and finish 6-0, I have no problem with them making the Playoff. They'd have wins over two Top 20 opponents.
Is there THAT much of a difference between a 6-0 Power conference Champ and a 9-0 team that didn't win their division? Both would have played just two Top 25 opponents, but at least Ohio State won both of those games while Aggie would have been blown out in one.
Essentially to argue that A&M is more deserving of Ohio State, you'd be saying that A&M's wins over unranked Arkansas, Tennessee, and Auburn trump a Big 10 Championship Trophy. I just don't buy that.
Posted on 12/16/20 at 10:11 am to Eat Your Crow
"caught beneath the landslide"
......................................................
That land slide must have really fricked your head up.
......................................................
That land slide must have really fricked your head up.
Posted on 12/16/20 at 10:13 am to AggieJohn06
quote:
A two loss team without a conference championship skin is not going to get in over a 1 loss A&M, undefeated Cincy, or even a 2 loss OU/ISU conference champion.
I disagree. I think its a close call with Aggie that could go either way. But as long as the second loss was in a very close game, Clemson will not fall further than 5th in the rankings. Iowa State and Oklahoma both have two losses also, and none were to opponents the same calibur as Notre Dame. The committee has shown they have no interest in putting Cincy in the playoff.
The question would be between #4 and #5 and it would come down to A&M and Clemson. Could go either way.
Posted on 12/16/20 at 10:14 am to Tuscaloosa
quote:
They will have gotten two chances to defeat what would be a CFB Playoff team and failed both times.
So is two chances (one on the road without their starting QB) that both were very, very narrow defeats that much worse than one chance that was a complete bloodbath?
Posted on 12/16/20 at 10:14 am to WarCamEagle
quote:
All make it with a loss, too much money involved for anything else to happen
But Clemson would have two losses to the same team. Nope.
Posted on 12/16/20 at 10:17 am to BHMKyle
What if someone Clemson couldn’t field a team this weekend because of C19.
Would the CFP just have the current top 4 as long as Bama and OSU win?
Would the CFP just have the current top 4 as long as Bama and OSU win?
Posted on 12/16/20 at 10:20 am to BHMKyle
quote:Yes.
So is two chances (one on the road without their starting QB) that both were very, very narrow defeats that much worse than one chance that was a complete bloodbath?
If you claim that a rematch against Bama is a problem for A&M, but that a 3rd ND-Clemson game would be OK, with Clemson having lost the first two (by any margin), that is the height of cognitive dissonance.
Posted on 12/16/20 at 10:29 am to twk
quote:
If you claim that a rematch against Bama is a problem for A&M, but that a 3rd ND-Clemson game would be OK
No one is saying there would be a 3rd ND-Clemson game. The playoff would be Bama-Clemson and Notre Dame-Ohio State. The only way there would be a 3rd Notre Dame-Clemson game is if both teams won.
The chances of BOTH Clemson beating Bama AND Notre Dame beating Ohio State (both would be Vegas upsets) are very slim. So there's a 80-90% chance you're not going to get that 3rd ND-Clemson game. But if both those upsets did somehow occur, I imagine there would be little doubt in the CFB world that those two teams were truly the two best teams at that point, so why not have a Championship with the two best?
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