Started By
Message
0
Posted on 9/25/19 at 11:10 am to Hobnailboot
quote:
Gus, I don't understand at all. Less than 50% vs. top 25?
He's one game back from being at 50%.... mind you there are only 7 head coaches in a America that are at 50% or better against ranked opponents at their current schools (10 game min).
quote:
And I would think this has gotten worse over the years (not sure).
Actually it hasn't. Gus is 7-6 (53.8%) against ranked opponents since the beginning of the 2017 season.... over half of those games were played against opponents ranked in the Top 6. Again, not sure how many coaches would be above .500 against that slate.
quote:
If I were an Auburn fan (vomit), I would want him the F outta there, and absolutely nothing that has transpired during this young season would make me change my mind.
So who could Auburn get that would have a better record? Based off accomplishments alone, he's a Top 10 coach in College Football. And I don't see many of the 8 or 9 coaches behind him that are looking to change jobs.
Posted on 9/25/19 at 11:10 am to MetryMauler
Didn't see the part about current school. That's not too bad of a record then.
Posted on 9/25/19 at 11:12 am to BHMKyle
Can you do a ranking at the end of the season because that would be a more accurate indication of their coaching abilities.
Posted on 9/25/19 at 11:14 am to BHMKyle
quote:
Three of the previous four Washington State head coaches have a Top 10 finish.
Yes but the one that didn't was also right before Leach.
Bill Doba owes his to Mike Price. After Bill's first season he went 21-26. Paul Wulff, the coach before Leach, went 9-40.
Mike Price I will give you but he still doesn't have as good of a win percentage as Leach. He also had two 3 win seasons and one 4 win season in years 10, 11 and 12. I don't think we will see something like that if Leach stays that long.
This post was edited on 9/25/19 at 11:17 am
Posted on 9/25/19 at 11:32 am to Laffy Taffy Tiger
quote:
Please explain how coach o was on the hot seat coming into this year.
Well a quick search finds me an August 2018 USA Today Hot Seat Rankings article listing Ed Orgeron as the least secure coach coming into the 2018 season.... And O went 5-3 in SEC play in 2018... only twice since 2000 has LSU had a worse SEC record.
So yeah, I think heading into this season there was definite thought that if LSU bombed they could very well make a change.
This post was edited on 9/25/19 at 11:57 am
Posted on 9/25/19 at 11:34 am to BHMKyle
Good thread.
Gus is most definitely undervalued by the Auburn fan base. The list of coaches that could do better in a similar position to Auburn is extremely short IMO.
Gus is most definitely undervalued by the Auburn fan base. The list of coaches that could do better in a similar position to Auburn is extremely short IMO.
This post was edited on 9/25/19 at 11:35 am
Posted on 9/25/19 at 11:36 am to rockiee
quote:
Exactly, looking at this in a vacuum and thinking every coach has the same thing to work with is very ignorant.
Yes, but there is always a different side to the coin.
It's like, "Hey Mike Leach should be graded on a curve because he's at Washington State.... it's not like they have the resources of an SEC West program."
But at the same time, he plays in the PAC 12 North and doesn't have to face near the competition he would if he coached in the SEC West. So yeah, he's at a program with fewer resources and the ability to recruit. But he also plays in a conference that quite frankly is barely above the Mountain West right now with the exception of a couple teams.
Posted on 9/25/19 at 11:39 am to BHMKyle
Wait, those numbers say that Alabama has played 78 top 25 teams in the last 12 years. Averages out to 6.5 ranked teams each year. Yet I have read on this very board many, many posts claiming Alabama has a weak schedule every year. Hmmm...
Posted on 9/25/19 at 11:47 am to Bench McElroy
Coach O is 2-4 against teams that finished in the top 10. Neither measure is perfect; having both gives better context.
Posted on 9/25/19 at 11:51 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
I think he's very fairly rated - nobody thinks he's win a national title at a place like Arkansas or Tennessee, but people do think that he's proven he can consistently win 8-9 games at places like Wazzu
Again, yes Washington State has fewer resources and less of a recruiting base... but that also causes them to have a softer schedule, thereby making it easier to win those 8-9 games.
SOS according to SP+ the past five seasons:
Arkansas: #2, #5, #10, #3, #5
Tennessee: #8, #22, #43, #16, #2
Washington St: #42, #53, #57, #55, #53
You could also likely put Jeremy Pruitt and Chad Morris at Washington State and watch them win 8 games per year.
These were Washington Stat's opponents last season:
FCS Eastern Washington
1-11 San Jose State
2-10 Oregon State
5-7 Arizona
5-7 Colorado
5-7 USC
6-6 Wyoming
7-6 Cal
8-5 Iowa State
9-5 Utah
9-4 Stanford
9-4 Oregon
10-4 Washington
Thirteen opponents and every single one had at least 4 losses on the season. You think he'd get the luxury of such a soft schedule if he coached at Arkansas or Tennessee?
Posted on 9/25/19 at 11:52 am to BHMKyle
quote:
You think he'd get the luxury of such a soft schedule if he coached at Arkansas or Tennessee?
Georgia State
BYU
Chattanooga
@ #9 Florida
#3 Georgia
Mississippi St
@ #2 Alabama
South Carolina
UAB
@ Kentucky
@ Missouri
Vanderbilt
In a "normal Leach" year (year 3-4) that looks exactly like a 8-4 type year to me. Lose to the Top 5 teams, probably lose 1 more (@ Missouri or something).
Which is about what I think most people expect he would do at a place like that.
Portland St
@ Ole Miss
Colorado St
San Jose St
#23 Texas A&M
@ Kentucky
#7 Auburn
@ #2 Alabama
Mississippi St
Western Kentucky
@ #4 LSU
Missouri
Again, very much like 8-4 with a typical Leach team to me.
He'd win most of his games vs the bottom 1/2 of the league, lose most of his games vs the top 1/3 of the league and the difference between 9-3 and 6-6 would be the toughest OOC game and that Top 20-40 level team that he played (Missouri, State, A&M).
This post was edited on 9/25/19 at 11:56 am
Posted on 9/25/19 at 11:55 am to BHMKyle
quote:
Coaches vs. AP Top 25 teams
Won't lie - came in here thinking this would be a comparison of the two polls.
Posted on 9/25/19 at 11:57 am to Hobnailboot
quote:
Gus, I don't understand at all. Less than 50% vs. top 25? And I would think this has gotten worse over the years (not sure). If I were an Auburn fan (vomit), I would want him the F outta there, and absolutely nothing that has transpired during this young season would make me change my mind.
How many of those were against teams that are more in the "top 10" and "top 5" category?
Posted on 9/25/19 at 11:57 am to BHMKyle
I would like to see Leach and Smart trade jobs for 5 years and see who has the better record against top 25 teams. Leach is at a bad program and is doing really good compared to the schools history. Smarts numbers are likely close to Richts record at Georgia against top 25 teams.
Posted on 9/25/19 at 11:59 am to BHMKyle
quote:
So yeah, I think heading into this season there was definite though that if LSU bombed they could very well make a change.
He received a 2-year extension and raise this past Spring.
Posted on 9/25/19 at 11:59 am to BHMKyle
quote:
76.9%
75.0%
Posted on 9/25/19 at 12:00 pm to See5
quote:
Gus is most definitely undervalued by the Auburn fan base. The list of coaches that could do better in a similar position to Auburn is extremely short IMO.
Maybe, but let's do a breakdown of top-paid coaches who've lost at least 4 games in each of the past 5 years. A lot of guys can do that.
You just can't look at the Gus question in a one dimensional way. He's a very stable coach who is unlikely to have meltdown seasons and can hold his own (in spots) against the elite. But he also tends to tank at the end of seasons and has won 9 or more games only twice in six years. He's an offensive mastermind who takes multiple weeks to develop a cohesive offense. The complaints are legit.
Honestly, a 10 win season (including bowl game) this year, even if it includes competitive losses to UGA/Bama, would go a long way toward convincing fans that he's still the right guy for the job (or at least that he's doing something that is genuinely hard to find a replacement for).
I really don't think Auburn people are unreasonable, we just want some consistency within the program that we can contribute to the leadership of Gus. To me that looks something like this cycle - 8 wins (rebuilding), 9/10 wins (growing) followed by a run (or two) at the SEC before starting the process over again. Obviously it won't always look like that, but right now we're tearing down and rebuilding a lot every season, with pretty mediocre results most of the time.
Posted on 9/25/19 at 12:02 pm to tjv305
quote:
I would like to see Leach and Smart trade jobs for 5 years and see who has the better record against top 25 teams. Leach is at a bad program and is doing really good compared to the schools history. Smarts numbers are likely close to Richts record at Georgia against top 25 teams.
In fairness Smart has had like 4 top 5 postseason games in the past 2 years + top 15 Texas.
I don't think the school swap really works. The cultures and expectations for the programs are too different. I'd like to see it too just to test the theory, but I wonder if there would be a pretty big difference between how 2 and 3 stars at WSU respond to Leach and how elite athletes checking their draft board status would.
Posted on 9/25/19 at 12:05 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
In a "normal Leach" year (year 3-4) that looks exactly like a 8-4 type year to me. Lose to the Top 5 teams, probably lose 1 more (@ Missouri or something).
So you're saying he'd likely only lose games to Top 5/10 type opponents, plus one more to a team that's right outside the Top 25?
If there is one thing Leach is good at, its dropping at least one game a season to a team with a losing record:
2019- Already lost to UCLA
2018- Lost to 5-7 USC
2017- Lost to 5-7 Cal
2016- No horrific losses
2015- Lost to FCS Portland State
2014- Lost to 5-7 Cal and 7-6 Nevada
2013- Lost to 7-6 Oregon St. and 8-6 Colorado St.
2012- Lost to 3 teams with 7 losses or more including 1-11 Colorado
That is not the same as an SEC team losing to the Georgia's, Florida's and maybe on occasion a Missouri. That's like losing to Vandy or a team like them every single season.
Page 2 of 6
Popular
Back to top
Follow SECRant for SEC Football News