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Coaches vs. AP Top 25 teams
Posted on 9/25/19 at 10:48 am
Posted on 9/25/19 at 10:48 am
Here are a handful of coaches' records vs. AP Top 25 opponents (ranking at the time the game is played) during their tenures at their current school*:
*minimum 10 games to be included:
1. Nick Saban, Alabama (2008-2019): 60-18 (76.9%)
2. Ed Orgeron, LSU (2017-2019): 12-4 (75.0%)
3. Dabo Swinney, Clemson (2009-2019): 28-17 (62.2%)
4. David Shaw, Stanford (2011-2019): 25-18 (58.1%)
5. Kirby Smart, Georgia (2016-2019): 10-8 (55.6%)
6. Clay Helton, USC (2016-2019): 9-8 (52.9%)
7. Gary Patterson, TCU (2011-2019): 25-25 (50.0%)
8. Mike Gundy, Oklahoma St. (2005-2019): 27-28 (49.1%)
9. Gus Malzahn, Auburn (2013-2019): 18-19 (48.6%)
10. Brian Kelly, Notre Dame (2012-2019): 18-19 (48.6%)
11. Tom Herman, Texas (2017-2019): 6-7 (46.2%)
12. Chris Peterson, Washington (2014-2019): 10-13 (43.5%)
13. Mark Dantonio, Michigan St. (2007-2019): 21-28 (42.9%)
14. Jim Harbaugh, Michigan (2015-2019): 8-11 (42.1%)
15. James Franklin, Penn State (2014-2019): 5-12 (29.4%)
16. Mike Leach, Washington St. (2012-2019): 8-18 (30.8%)
This is by no means a complete list. But I tried to include most all the highly rated coaches who have played at least 10 games against ranked opponents.
Some takeaways:
Coach O and to a lesser degree Gus at Auburn are undervalued. The fact that both of these men came into the season somewhat on the hot seat is unfathomable. It's still early for Orgeron, and he walked into a better situation than most coaches get when they start out, but what he's done at LSU far exceeds expectations.
Gus is another one that frankly doesn't get enough credit... from the media and his own fan base. He's won 18 games against Top 25 teams in just 6.5 seasons. That averages out to roughly 2.8 such wins per year. The only coaches in America that have averaged as many Top 25 wins per season are Saban (5.2), Coach O (4.8), and Kirby (2.9). Gus is 4th at 2.8 such wins per year during his tenure.
David Shaw scores incredibly well, though he took over a program that was arguably at it's historical peak when Harbaugh left..... since then, its been a gradual downhill curve. Since 2016, Shaw is just 5-9 against Top 25 teams (35.7%)
Clay Helton also gets no respect. Sure, USC is not what it was under Pete Carroll, but his record in big games is fairly strong relative to the respect he gets.
Mike Leach is incredibly overrated. I'm not sure what he's done to be considered such a good coach. In 9 out of his 26 games against Top 25 opponents, he's been outscored by 21 points or more.
*minimum 10 games to be included:
1. Nick Saban, Alabama (2008-2019): 60-18 (76.9%)
2. Ed Orgeron, LSU (2017-2019): 12-4 (75.0%)
3. Dabo Swinney, Clemson (2009-2019): 28-17 (62.2%)
4. David Shaw, Stanford (2011-2019): 25-18 (58.1%)
5. Kirby Smart, Georgia (2016-2019): 10-8 (55.6%)
6. Clay Helton, USC (2016-2019): 9-8 (52.9%)
7. Gary Patterson, TCU (2011-2019): 25-25 (50.0%)
8. Mike Gundy, Oklahoma St. (2005-2019): 27-28 (49.1%)
9. Gus Malzahn, Auburn (2013-2019): 18-19 (48.6%)
10. Brian Kelly, Notre Dame (2012-2019): 18-19 (48.6%)
11. Tom Herman, Texas (2017-2019): 6-7 (46.2%)
12. Chris Peterson, Washington (2014-2019): 10-13 (43.5%)
13. Mark Dantonio, Michigan St. (2007-2019): 21-28 (42.9%)
14. Jim Harbaugh, Michigan (2015-2019): 8-11 (42.1%)
15. James Franklin, Penn State (2014-2019): 5-12 (29.4%)
16. Mike Leach, Washington St. (2012-2019): 8-18 (30.8%)
This is by no means a complete list. But I tried to include most all the highly rated coaches who have played at least 10 games against ranked opponents.
Some takeaways:
Coach O and to a lesser degree Gus at Auburn are undervalued. The fact that both of these men came into the season somewhat on the hot seat is unfathomable. It's still early for Orgeron, and he walked into a better situation than most coaches get when they start out, but what he's done at LSU far exceeds expectations.
Gus is another one that frankly doesn't get enough credit... from the media and his own fan base. He's won 18 games against Top 25 teams in just 6.5 seasons. That averages out to roughly 2.8 such wins per year. The only coaches in America that have averaged as many Top 25 wins per season are Saban (5.2), Coach O (4.8), and Kirby (2.9). Gus is 4th at 2.8 such wins per year during his tenure.
David Shaw scores incredibly well, though he took over a program that was arguably at it's historical peak when Harbaugh left..... since then, its been a gradual downhill curve. Since 2016, Shaw is just 5-9 against Top 25 teams (35.7%)
Clay Helton also gets no respect. Sure, USC is not what it was under Pete Carroll, but his record in big games is fairly strong relative to the respect he gets.
Mike Leach is incredibly overrated. I'm not sure what he's done to be considered such a good coach. In 9 out of his 26 games against Top 25 opponents, he's been outscored by 21 points or more.
This post was edited on 9/25/19 at 10:50 am
26
Posted on 9/25/19 at 10:51 am to BHMKyle
quote:
I'm not sure what he's done to be considered such a good coach.
Probably has something to do with the top 10 finish and 11 wins at Washington St.
Posted on 9/25/19 at 10:52 am to BHMKyle
I'm more interested to find out their records against teams that finished in the AP Top 25. Because there have been many teams who've been ranked during the season that ended up having terrible years i.e. 2018 Tennessee.
Posted on 9/25/19 at 10:52 am to BHMKyle
quote:
Coach O and to a lesser degree Gus at Auburn are undervalued.
Coach O, I will give you. We are all shocked at how well he's done considering his past experience.
Gus, I don't understand at all. Less than 50% vs. top 25? And I would think this has gotten worse over the years (not sure). If I were an Auburn fan (vomit), I would want him the F outta there, and absolutely nothing that has transpired during this young season would make me change my mind.
Posted on 9/25/19 at 10:54 am to BHMKyle
quote:
Mike Leach is incredibly overrated.
You need to compare his record to the school's history vs top 25 teams and I am betting he is a huge improvement over the previous coaches.
Posted on 9/25/19 at 10:54 am to BHMKyle
Please explain how coach o was on the hot seat coming into this year.
Posted on 9/25/19 at 10:55 am to bigDgator
quote:
You need to compare his record to the school's history vs top 25 teams and I am betting he is a huge improvement over the previous coaches.
Exactly, looking at this in a vacuum and thinking every coach has the same thing to work with is very ignorant.
Posted on 9/25/19 at 10:55 am to BHMKyle
quote:Interesting to look at. My issue with these type rankings is that it gives the false impression that the opponents faced are relatively equal. This year, for example, facing a top 6 team is much more difficult than facing the #8 team and infinitely more difficult than facing a 20-25 team.
vs. AP Top 25 opponents (ranking at the time the game is played)
Doesn't mean it's not interesting to consider these records, but the whole "vs a top 25 team" is often misleading. That's without getting into the fact a team may be completely mis-ranked at the time the game is played.
Posted on 9/25/19 at 10:58 am to rockiee
Leach takes over bad programs at places with little to no recruiting sales ability and generally wins more than their program average.
I think he's very fairly rated - nobody thinks he's win a national title at a place like Arkansas or Tennessee, but people do think that he's proven he can consistently win 8-9 games at places like Wazzu and Texas Tech........it seems reasonable to think he could do the same at Tennessee or Arkansas.
I think he's very fairly rated - nobody thinks he's win a national title at a place like Arkansas or Tennessee, but people do think that he's proven he can consistently win 8-9 games at places like Wazzu and Texas Tech........it seems reasonable to think he could do the same at Tennessee or Arkansas.
Posted on 9/25/19 at 10:58 am to BHMKyle
Where is Dan Mullen?
Posted on 9/25/19 at 10:59 am to Hobnailboot
quote:Probably because he plays Alabama, LSU, Georgia, and Clemson on a regular basis. Not just standard "top 25" teams.
Gus, I don't understand at all. Less than 50% vs. top 25?
quote:I agree with this.
If I were an Auburn fan (vomit), I would want him the F outta there
Posted on 9/25/19 at 11:00 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Leach takes over bad programs at places with little to no recruiting sales ability and generally wins more than their program average.
I think he's very fairly rated - nobody thinks he's win a national title at a place like Arkansas or Tennessee, but people do think that he's proven he can consistently win 8-9 games at places like Wazzu and Texas Tech........it seems reasonable to think he could do the same at Tennessee or Arkansas.
Pretty much and he gets a big plus along with Kiffin for trolling material
Posted on 9/25/19 at 11:02 am to Laffy Taffy Tiger
quote:
Please explain how coach o was on the hot seat coming into this year.
He wasn’t. Not sure where that’s coming from after a NY6 bowl win.
Posted on 9/25/19 at 11:04 am to BHMKyle
Not enough games yet but:
Dan Mullen 3-1
Jimbo Fisher 2-4
Dan Mullen 3-1
Jimbo Fisher 2-4
Posted on 9/25/19 at 11:05 am to rockiee
quote:
Probably has something to do with the top 10 finish and 11 wins at Washington St.
Three of the previous four Washington State head coaches have a Top 10 finish.
Posted on 9/25/19 at 11:06 am to yatesdog38
quote:
Where is Dan Mullen?
I've been assured he's taking the East this year tho....
Record vs. Top 25 opponents: 10-33
This post was edited on 9/25/19 at 11:07 am
Posted on 9/25/19 at 11:06 am to BHMKyle
60-18.... WOW!!!
Posted on 9/25/19 at 11:06 am to yatesdog38
quote:
Where is Dan Mullen?
Read the OP you got damn stalker.
Posted on 9/25/19 at 11:08 am to BHMKyle
This is not a pure indication of coaching, but it is interesting.
If you are Alabama, you probably have a lot of games where you are playing a top 25 team that is ranked below you with lesser talent. If you are, say Michigan State, you have more games playing against higher ranked teams with more talent.
Granted, gathering that talent and gaining the higher ranking is part of overall coaching. But doesn't necessarily mean you are the better game day coach.
It would be interesting to see the percentages broken out to when you were favored vs underdog.
If you are Alabama, you probably have a lot of games where you are playing a top 25 team that is ranked below you with lesser talent. If you are, say Michigan State, you have more games playing against higher ranked teams with more talent.
Granted, gathering that talent and gaining the higher ranking is part of overall coaching. But doesn't necessarily mean you are the better game day coach.
It would be interesting to see the percentages broken out to when you were favored vs underdog.
Posted on 9/25/19 at 11:09 am to PearlJam
quote:
Probably because he plays Alabama, LSU, Georgia, and Clemson on a regular basis. Not just standard "top 25" teams.
This pains me mightily WarAubbie, but you have a very solid point there.
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