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re: Coaches vs. AP Top 25 teams

Posted on 9/25/19 at 4:44 pm to
Posted by rockiee
Sugar Land, TX
Member since Jan 2015
28540 posts
Posted on 9/25/19 at 4:44 pm to
quote:


Any coach who is 8-32 against ranked opponents deserves criticism.


Along with context and never in a vacuum
Posted by Korin
Member since Jan 2014
37935 posts
Posted on 9/25/19 at 4:45 pm to
quote:

Any coach who is 8-32 against ranked opponents deserves criticism.

So then you have to apply the same thing to O's time at Ole Miss. Can't have it both ways.
Posted by BHMKyle
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
5076 posts
Posted on 9/25/19 at 4:45 pm to
quote:

So then you have to apply the same thing to O's time at Ole Miss. Can't have it both ways.


Not trying to have it both ways. Coach O's performance at Ole Miss was abysmal. Period.
Posted by rockiee
Sugar Land, TX
Member since Jan 2015
28540 posts
Posted on 9/25/19 at 4:46 pm to
quote:


Yes, but somehow Leach who just lost at home to 0-3 UCLA as an 18.5 point favorite is the epitome of consistency. Do I have that right?


This is why we don't use 4 game sample sizes or 1
Posted by Korin
Member since Jan 2014
37935 posts
Posted on 9/25/19 at 4:46 pm to
Still not using final rankings for some mysterious reason.
Posted by Terrific Tales
Member since Jan 2019
19444 posts
Posted on 9/25/19 at 4:48 pm to
Since Troy, we haven’t looked completely unprepared or uninspired for a single game. (You could say Florida, but we still kept that game close) Coach O is a machine when it comes to preparation, and the kids love him. Very happy with the state of our program right now.



Also...


One of us
One of us
One of us
This post was edited on 9/25/19 at 4:49 pm
Posted by BHMKyle
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
5076 posts
Posted on 9/25/19 at 4:49 pm to
quote:

Still not using final rankings for some mysterious reason.


It's not mysterious. I told you earlier... it's called time. Please put all the numbers together using final rankings. I would love to save it so I don't have to spend 2 hours putting it together.
Posted by rockiee
Sugar Land, TX
Member since Jan 2015
28540 posts
Posted on 9/25/19 at 4:49 pm to
quote:

Coach O's performance at Ole Miss was abysmal. Period.


Do you not think we could easily see something similar with Mullen at Florida? In which he has much better performances at an easier school to win at
Posted by Korin
Member since Jan 2014
37935 posts
Posted on 9/25/19 at 4:51 pm to
quote:

It's not mysterious. I told you earlier... it's called time. Please put all the numbers together using final rankings. I would love to save it so I don't have to spend 2 hours putting it together.

Nah, you're just using game time rankings because it makes Kirby look better.
Posted by rockiee
Sugar Land, TX
Member since Jan 2015
28540 posts
Posted on 9/25/19 at 4:55 pm to
quote:


Nah, you're just using game time rankings because it makes Kirby look better.




Do you know what the difference is?
Posted by BHMKyle
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
5076 posts
Posted on 9/25/19 at 4:56 pm to
quote:

This is why we don't use 4 game sample sizes or 1


You see but we have a 7.5 year sample size... and Leach's loss to UCLA most likely guarantees him having a loss to a 6+ loss opponent.... just like he had last season.... and just like he's had on 11 occasions during his tenure at Wazzu. He's lost to at least one 6+ loss opponent and/or an FCS school in every single season since he came to Pullman.

I guess you are right.... he is consistent. He consistently loses most all the big games and he consistently loses to 1-2 horrific opponents every single year.

But hey he had one finish in the Top 25 in 9 seasons so we must all be impressed.
Posted by RatRodDawg
UGA & USC alum/Los Angeles, Calif
Member since Nov 2018
2494 posts
Posted on 9/25/19 at 4:58 pm to
Good post, BHM.
Posted by rockiee
Sugar Land, TX
Member since Jan 2015
28540 posts
Posted on 9/25/19 at 5:01 pm to
quote:

I guess you are right.... he is consistent. He consistently loses most all the big games and he consistently loses to 1-2 horrific opponents every single year.


When did I ever argue that he was consistent to begin with? I have already talked with another poster in this thread about the fact he has at least one of those games every year. You are all over the place.
Posted by BHMKyle
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
5076 posts
Posted on 9/25/19 at 5:02 pm to
quote:

Do you not think we could easily see something similar with Mullen at Florida?


Of course its possible. Anything is possible.

quote:

In which he has much better performances at an easier school to win at


As long as FSU is down and the SEC East continues to struggle, it is FAR EASIER to win at Florida than Mississippi State. I suspect he'll win 9-10 games every season unless things turn around in Tallahassee.

He's essentially guaranteed 4 OOC wins per year. Plus he plays Vandy, Kentucky, and South Carolina. That's 7 wins. That's his Starkville Blueprint for Success on steroids. Not to mention Mizzou is mediocre most seasons, so that gets him to likely 8 wins. Now all he has to do is win one of the other 4 games and a bowl game and he's up to 10 wins!

...But has he even beaten anyone at that point with a pulse? We'll have to see.

And I know Georgia is in the same boat. We play in the East and we get Georgia Tech OOC which has been horrid recently. I've been advocating for realigning divisions for this very reason.

But the reality is in the East right now its not difficult to win 9 games every year. In fact, its embarrassing if you don't.
Posted by BHMKyle
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
5076 posts
Posted on 9/25/19 at 5:03 pm to
quote:

Do you know what the difference is?


Would love to know myself. My guess is it has very little effect on his record, but let Korin tell us since he's solved this brain-buster.
Posted by reggieray420
Member since Dec 2016
2700 posts
Posted on 9/25/19 at 5:03 pm to
But that's flawed too. Teams get better/worse at any time during a season. Finishing top 25 means little more than ranking at the time of matchup.
Posted by rockiee
Sugar Land, TX
Member since Jan 2015
28540 posts
Posted on 9/25/19 at 5:07 pm to
quote:

t is FAR EASIER to win at Florida than Mississippi State.


Ding Ding Ding, but it is not just because of schedules. That is part of the equation though.

quote:

He's essentially guaranteed 4 OOC wins per year. Plus he plays Vandy, Kentucky, and South Carolina. That's 7 wins. That's his Starkville Blueprint for Success on steroids. Not to mention Mizzou is mediocre most seasons, so that gets him to likely 8 wins. Now all he has to do is win one of the other 4 games and a bowl game and he's up to 10 wins!



Sure but we are talking about top 25 wins, not total wins.

quote:

But has he even beaten anyone at that point with a pulse?


Yes, he already has and you addressed it
Posted by rockiee
Sugar Land, TX
Member since Jan 2015
28540 posts
Posted on 9/25/19 at 5:08 pm to
quote:

Teams get better/worse at any time during a season.


True but I think the best way to do it is still end of the year. Most seem to agree on that.
Posted by Tigahtildeath
Member since Aug 2017
559 posts
Posted on 9/25/19 at 6:35 pm to
That alone should validate that Bama plays a pretty tough schedule year in / year out.

As much as I hate to say it, that’s a big gap.
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