re: Chances of winning the national championship according to ESPN

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True. But that was when y’all had Bennett and Bowers and Washington. This year you’ve won the SEC with a backup QB who got his clock cleaned late in the game. Your RBs took over that game more than anything. Your blocking came up yuuuge

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The reality is UGA beat Texas with most of their points coming after our starter got hurt (all but 3).

The teams we'd likely face to win the next two games don't have dynamic offenses. ND and PSU have mediocre to bad passing attacks. Their defenses are good... but so is UGA's. And to be completely honest I think UGA is more dynamic with Stockton than ND is with Leonard or PSU is with Allar. Not because Stockton is awesome. Just because if he's simply a bit below average then UGA will be more explosive due to overall offensive talent surrounding him.

It would be different if we were facing an OSU type of offense. But we have two full games before we have to worry about that... and if it's Texas we don't have to worry about that. We already know that UGA's defense can make the Texas offense look pedestrian too.

UGA's got a great draw for their situation and is in a great spot. There simply aren't any elite QB's int he playoff this year. There's really only a couple of pretty good ones. And they're all on the other side of the bracket from UGA.

I'd also like to point out UGA's passing attack has been really bad in BOTH the games against Texas. They still won both. Against a team like Texas UGA won with 136 yards passing with 1 pick and 175 yards passing with 3 picks.

Imagine if we face them again and simply manage 200 yards passing and no picks. It would be a total arse kicking while still having a horrible offense.

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Oregon below Penn st and Ohio st?? Uh, ok, whatever

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Oregon has to beat

Ohio State
Texas
Georgia/ND

Ohio State has to beat the same.

Those are mostly 50/50 type games.

Texas is playing ASU.. which is prob 80/20

That’s the main difference, but the gap between them means ND is expected to beat Georgia 60/40 and OSU is expected to beat Oregon 70/30

Another way to look at it..

25.0% Oregon + OSU combined
28.5% Texas + ASU combined

32.9% Georgia + ND combined
13.5% PSU + Boise combined

and then

53.5% Texas, Oregon, OSU, ASU combined

46.4% Georgia, ND, PSU, Boise combined

which is close to even.. slight advantage to the top group.. but PSU will be a big dog to the GA/ND winner

Texas and PSU seem too high odds wise, but they also get the easy next round of matches (ASU and Boise St). UGA is way too low. ESPNBet should put their money where their mouth is and put UGA at +200 for the ND game

They have to fix the seeding in future years... Oregon is #1 and their reward is they get OSU? Makes no sense.

UGA has the best path of anyone remaining. I would rather play Notre Dame and Penn St to get to the title than Oregon/OSU then Texas. UGA likely only needs to score 20 to beat ND and ~24 to beat PSU

Lmao ND over OSU and Oregon. Yeah, seems legit.

It reminds me of the hype for Michigan leading up to the 2021 Orange Bowl.

You know those numbers are just made up right?

They mean absolutely nothing.

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What jumps out at me is ND 2nd highest , That’s shocking

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To me its that they think Penn State is very likely to win their matchup vs Boise, but will lose to either ND or Georgia. These odds imply they think ND beats Georgia, yet Penn State still has lower odds than Georgia does.

We know what ND looks like. I'm assuming Georgia will be fairly conservative offensively with a young QB. Penn State in those types of games matches up really well, and they probably have a lower talent gap vs a hypothetical Georgia matchup than ND does.

So much like Texas' regular season, they have the easiest schedule in the playoffs, too. Amazing how that works.