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re: Can Boom, Pruitt and Mullen survive winning 8-9 games per year?
Posted on 2/13/18 at 5:35 am to scrooster
Posted on 2/13/18 at 5:35 am to scrooster
quote:
In the next ten years, or less, we will be playing 9 conference games each season. I give it to 2025 max
I still don't see it. The math doesn't add up.
1 conference game = 2 out of conference games for the tv, radio, stadium ticket sales.
If people want tougher schedules, then schedule tougher. Don't eliminate a revenue stream (I'm looking at you sec west)
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Posted on 2/13/18 at 7:33 am to scrooster
Bama puts us at a disadvantage in terms of winning the East but I don't know anyone that expects that to be a W any time soon. Saban is coaching at a level where it's just not expected. That might change if we're consistently winning 10 a year but otherwise I don't think so. It would be a welcome change to break that streak but it's not a dagger through a coach's heart (the fact that long streaks have always been a part of it effect that outlook too).
The Florida streak was similar in length but always vulnerable. Several of the last few should've been won and those are the games that make fans apoplectic because the opportunity was there and has been.
Also, someone did a correlation graph for all SEC schools and the school that plays the largest role in our success is actually Florida but probably not in the way most think. When they are good, we are good and when they are bad so are we. Strange as hell but true.
The Florida streak was similar in length but always vulnerable. Several of the last few should've been won and those are the games that make fans apoplectic because the opportunity was there and has been.
Also, someone did a correlation graph for all SEC schools and the school that plays the largest role in our success is actually Florida but probably not in the way most think. When they are good, we are good and when they are bad so are we. Strange as hell but true.
Posted on 2/13/18 at 7:38 am to Prof
Correlation is not causation
Posted on 2/13/18 at 7:44 am to MontyFranklyn
I think the Vols will have another HC before Muschamp ever gets fired
Posted on 2/13/18 at 7:44 am to djsdawg
quote:
Correlation is not causation
I didn't say it was. Scrooster tied our fortunes to Bama and I mentioned a correlation graph even used the term correlation specifically when discussing the correlation between UF and UT.
Posted on 2/13/18 at 7:47 am to MontyFranklyn
Megan will make Dan move back to starkvegas when he gets fired... and he'll have to commute to tuscaloosa from starkvegas for an offensive analyst job.
Posted on 2/13/18 at 8:04 am to MontyFranklyn
We need some sort of timetable on this question. While its easy to say "oh 8-9 wins will get you a statue in columbia" 8-9 wins will also put you just behind Spurrier/Meyer at UF and Neyland at UTk. Fulmer won 151 games in 17 seasons. That's 8.88 games per year. Fulmer falls into the category of 8-9 games per year. Are you asking if Pruitt isn't better than Fulmer then he gets the shite can?
Of course Muschamp would be the most likely to stay in this scenario. Spurrier while at Carolina won 11 games 3 seasons in a row including 3 straight top 10 finishes and HE didn't even average 8 wins at Carolina.
Of course Muschamp would be the most likely to stay in this scenario. Spurrier while at Carolina won 11 games 3 seasons in a row including 3 straight top 10 finishes and HE didn't even average 8 wins at Carolina.
This post was edited on 2/13/18 at 8:06 am
Posted on 2/13/18 at 8:10 am to MontyFranklyn
Pruitt and Mullen will have to beat UGA every now and then.
Posted on 2/13/18 at 8:23 am to bamafan1001
quote:
Pruitt and Mullen will have to beat UGA every now and then.
Neither program will put up with that as an expectation. If UGA looks invulnerable both coaches are gone. If it's more like 50-50 then everything is fine.
Posted on 2/13/18 at 8:30 am to MontyFranklyn
quote:
Let's assume that going forward Georgia is an auto L most years. Let's also assume that they all go 1-1 among each other. Let's assume that Tennessee will continue to lose to Alabama, Florida will lose to LSU and FSU every other year,
Your entire question is based on a false assumption. First losing to UG most years is laughable for UF, 21 0f 28 wins. Secondly losing to UT 1-1 is a joke for UF, 12 of 13 wins. LSU and FSucks are in decline, more Fsucks than LSU but I would expect to beat each 3 of 4 years going forward.
But to answer your question, 8-9 wins is not acceptable at UF. Go Gators.
Posted on 2/13/18 at 10:59 am to UFMatt
UFL Matt still stuck in the 90's as if spurrier was the UFL coach. Your dominance in the series ended awhile ago, and the talent discrepancy between uf and uga has never been as wide as it is.
Posted on 2/13/18 at 11:42 am to Gatorbait2008
quote:
What? Why do you think UF is a four year rebuild...UF is not a four year rebuild. Tenn isn't even a four year rebuild and they are broken right now. If he takes five years to start double digits, he isn't a good enough coach for UF. Simple as that.
Didn't make the claim, but probably depends on what you're defining a "rebuild" as. To get back to winning the division and/or competing for the SEC (have to think it will take 10 wins in the regular season to feel good about this), I think 3 years is probably the earliest it would happen, so it's not like 4 years is an outlandish timeline.
What is your honest projection on regular season win totals for the next 3 years for UF (post season to be ignored, since you can't really project matchups)?
Not to claim that S&P+ is somehow the world's greatest tool, but it is something we have available right now... According to their projections, it looks like UF would be a 4 point underdog or more in at least 4 games, with 2 more "toss ups" where the differential is a point or less with Mizzou and South Carolina (you do get both games at home in 2018 though - so probably come out slight favorites in both). I'm not sure any rational UF fan is projecting 10+ wins in the regular season for you guys this year... Nothing is impossible, but it would certainly be seen as surprising.
In 2019, UF adds a neutral site opener against Miami, increasing the schedule difficulty a bit (in addition to the perma-FSU OOC game). Little early to try and project win totals, but a 9 win regular season with 2 stronger P5 opponents in addition to your regular schedule which will include Auburn from the west would probably be seen as a positive outcome (even if still not double digits).
That leaves 2020 as probably the earliest window to hit 10 wins in the regular season from the looks of it. Schedule is friendly with only 3 SEC road games (Tennessee, Ole Miss, Vandy), though FSU is on the road in addition to the annual Jax matchup. Side note: UGA draws Alabama this season from the west. If Saban is still there, good opportunity year for UF.
If it doesn't happen in 2020, you guys add Alabama in 2021 (who knows where Saban is by then...)
Posted on 2/13/18 at 12:46 pm to GameCocky88
quote:
We need some sort of timetable on this question. While its easy to say "oh 8-9 wins will get you a statue in columbia" 8-9 wins will also put you just behind Spurrier/Meyer at UF and Neyland at UTk. Fulmer won 151 games in 17 seasons. That's 8.88 games per year. Fulmer falls into the category of 8-9 games per year. Are you asking if Pruitt isn't better than Fulmer then he gets the shite can?
Of course Muschamp would be the most likely to stay in this scenario. Spurrier while at Carolina won 11 games 3 seasons in a row including 3 straight top 10 finishes and HE didn't even average 8 wins at Carolina
That's an interesting take, and accurate.
I was looking the other day at SPURrier's record here and he lost probably ten games he really should have won, maybe more. A couple to Tennessee, two to Auburn, a couple to Kentucky and one to Vandy and two to Arkansas ... his hubris lost most but Garcia cost him a couple. Imagine just getting those ten back. He would have been over the 8 average.
That's what mUSChamp is going to have to do .... is not lose games you should obviously win. Avoid being hard headed, which SPURrier could be at times. And, most importantly, recruit recruit recruit.
Posted on 2/13/18 at 12:47 pm to MontyFranklyn
quote:
Florida will lose to LSU and FSU every other year,
When did LSU hire a new coach?
Posted on 2/13/18 at 12:48 pm to scrooster
quote:Is it? Is it really?
No we won't ... that's an idiotic assumption.
Posted on 2/13/18 at 12:55 pm to UFMatt
quote:First of all, this ain't Richt's Georgia. Secondly, you all don't have Urban or Spurrier on the sidelines. You guys a step above Zook years honestly. LSU sucks, yet they beat you in the swamp while O was being incompetent yet again. FSU will probably bounce back to winning 10 games a year. If Tagg doesn't completely frick it up they will be fine. 8-9 wins may not be acceptable, but it may be reality.
Your entire question is based on a false assumption. First losing to UG most years is laughable for UF, 21 0f 28 wins. Secondly losing to UT 1-1 is a joke for UF, 12 of 13 wins. LSU and FSucks are in decline, more Fsucks than LSU but I would expect to beat each 3 of 4 years going forward.
But to answer your question, 8-9 wins is not acceptable at UF. Go Gators.
Posted on 2/13/18 at 12:55 pm to Prof
quote:
Bama puts us at a disadvantage in terms of winning the East but I don't know anyone that expects that to be a W any time soon. Saban is coaching at a level where it's just not expected. That might change if we're consistently winning 10 a year but otherwise I don't think so. It would be a welcome change to break that streak but it's not a dagger through a coach's heart (the fact that long streaks have always been a part of it effect that outlook too).
No, you're right and I agree. That's why I typed what I did about Pruitt being in trouble early if he loses two in a row to UGA, UF and SC ... but that the Bama streak may not be broken until Saban's final year. Meaning the season that Saban finally loses to UT may be the final year he coaches at Bama.
I still say if Pruitt, and he was one of the three magnified in this thread .... if he starts out losing to Boom, Mullen and Kirby, all three, two years in a row then he'll be on the hotseat early because the two losses to Bama are assumed.
I added a caveat that perhaps if his teams show a lot more effort and enthusiasm in the process that may be enough to keep the wolves (which you can spell without V.O.L.) at bay.
Like Boom, he's going to have to recruit recruit recruit ... and then coach'em-up.
Again, Pruitt is two years behind SC, at least a year behind UF and waaaaay behind UGA snd Bama right now in recruiting and developing. Not an easy place to be.
Posted on 2/13/18 at 12:56 pm to scrooster
quote:
we now have the #1 facilities in the East and the new $58 million ops building should secure that for awhile.
This is one area where UF is going to make a big splash very soon. A new football ops building in the $65/70 million range on the site of the old baseball stadium is going to put a lot of distance between UF and the other Florida schools facility-wise. Should be an enormous help to Mullen's recruiting.
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