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Bracketology Updates
Posted on 3/4/24 at 12:09 pm
Posted on 3/4/24 at 12:09 pm
With one week to go in the regular season, here’s where things sit at the moment:
Joe Lunardi:
2-seed: Tennessee (#5 overall)
4-seed: Kentucky (#13), Alabama (#15)
5-seed: Auburn (#17)
6-seed: South Carolina
7-seed: Florida
8-seed: Mississippi State
10th Out: Texas A&M
11th Out: Ole Miss
JBR Bracketology:
1-seed: Tennessee (#4 overall)
4-seed: Alabama (#13), Kentucky (#15), Auburn (#16)
6-seed: South Carolina (#21)
7-seed: Florida (#26)
9-seed: Mississippi State (#34)
10th Out: Ole Miss
11th Out: Texas A&M
Kentucky, Auburn, and Bama are in a logjam around the 4-line. I think all of these could land on the 3-seed line with a huge finish. Probably a 5-seed is the lowest any could fall. I don’t see any of these reaching the 2-line at this point.
Joe Lunardi:
2-seed: Tennessee (#5 overall)
4-seed: Kentucky (#13), Alabama (#15)
5-seed: Auburn (#17)
6-seed: South Carolina
7-seed: Florida
8-seed: Mississippi State
10th Out: Texas A&M
11th Out: Ole Miss
JBR Bracketology:
1-seed: Tennessee (#4 overall)
4-seed: Alabama (#13), Kentucky (#15), Auburn (#16)
6-seed: South Carolina (#21)
7-seed: Florida (#26)
9-seed: Mississippi State (#34)
10th Out: Ole Miss
11th Out: Texas A&M
Kentucky, Auburn, and Bama are in a logjam around the 4-line. I think all of these could land on the 3-seed line with a huge finish. Probably a 5-seed is the lowest any could fall. I don’t see any of these reaching the 2-line at this point.
8
Posted on 3/4/24 at 12:12 pm to AUTiger789
A&M still too high.
Posted on 3/4/24 at 12:12 pm to AUTiger789
Where is the NIT bracket projections? I want to be included dammit.
Posted on 3/4/24 at 12:18 pm to AUTiger789
quote:
Kentucky, Auburn, and Bama are in a logjam around the 4-line. I think all of these could land on the 3-seed line with a huge finish. Probably a 5-seed is the lowest any could fall. I don’t see any of these reaching the 2-line at this point.
I think that one will end up a 3, one will end up a 4, and one will end up a 5, depending on how the SEC Tournament goes.
Posted on 3/4/24 at 12:23 pm to TeddyWestside
NIT Bracket (automatic bids in bold, bubble in italics):
1. New Mexico
U. San Francisco
4. Oregon (Pac-12 2)
U. Minnesota
3. Cincinnati (Big 12 1)
U. SMU
2. Utah (Pac-12 1)
U. UNLV
1. Mississippi (SEC 2)
U. Florida St.
4. UCF (Big 12 2)
U. Memphis
3. Virginia Tech (ACC 2)
U. James Madison
2. Providence (Big East 1)
U. LSU
1. Iowa (Big Ten 1)
U. VCU
2. Drake
U. Butler
3. Ohio State (Big Ten 2)
U. Kansas St.
2. Texas A&M (SEC 1)
U. N.C. State
1. Seton Hall
U. St. Bonaventure
4. Syracuse
U. Rutgers
3. Xavier (Big East 2)
U. Washington
2. Pittsburgh (ACC 1)
U. Bradley
Others Considered: Loyola Chicago, Yale, Indiana, Maryland
Also Looked At: Massachusetts, Georgia, Boston College, Duquesne, Charlotte, UAB, North Texas, Cornell
1. New Mexico
U. San Francisco
4. Oregon (Pac-12 2)
U. Minnesota
3. Cincinnati (Big 12 1)
U. SMU
2. Utah (Pac-12 1)
U. UNLV
1. Mississippi (SEC 2)
U. Florida St.
4. UCF (Big 12 2)
U. Memphis
3. Virginia Tech (ACC 2)
U. James Madison
2. Providence (Big East 1)
U. LSU
1. Iowa (Big Ten 1)
U. VCU
2. Drake
U. Butler
3. Ohio State (Big Ten 2)
U. Kansas St.
2. Texas A&M (SEC 1)
U. N.C. State
1. Seton Hall
U. St. Bonaventure
4. Syracuse
U. Rutgers
3. Xavier (Big East 2)
U. Washington
2. Pittsburgh (ACC 1)
U. Bradley
Others Considered: Loyola Chicago, Yale, Indiana, Maryland
Also Looked At: Massachusetts, Georgia, Boston College, Duquesne, Charlotte, UAB, North Texas, Cornell
This post was edited on 3/4/24 at 12:24 pm
Posted on 3/4/24 at 12:28 pm to McGregor
quote:
McGregor
Posted on 3/4/24 at 12:37 pm to AUTiger789
I don't particularly understand how UK is a 4 seed. I don't see what makes their resume more impressive than SC.
Blowout loss to SC. Losses to Wilmington, LSU, A&M, UF,Kansas, UT while playing a few teams close
Good wins: UNC, Bama
SC has Blowout losses to Auburn, Bama, losses to Clemson, UGA, LSU. playing a lot of teams close.
Good wins : UK by 17, UT on the road,
Thats not me saying that UK's record isnt maybe better, but 2 seed lines better?
Blowout loss to SC. Losses to Wilmington, LSU, A&M, UF,Kansas, UT while playing a few teams close
Good wins: UNC, Bama
SC has Blowout losses to Auburn, Bama, losses to Clemson, UGA, LSU. playing a lot of teams close.
Good wins : UK by 17, UT on the road,
Thats not me saying that UK's record isnt maybe better, but 2 seed lines better?
Posted on 3/4/24 at 12:46 pm to TeddyWestside
quote:
think that one will end up a 3, one will end up a 4, and one will end up a 5, depending on how the SEC Tournament goes.
I think it will depend on last two games. Don't think the tournament would be taken into account
Posted on 3/4/24 at 12:51 pm to HailToTheChiz
If Ala, Aub and SCar all finish 13-5 (Aub winning twice this week, SCar and Ala splitting, which are the most likely scenarios I think), Ala and Aub would get the #2/3 slots with the tiebreaker over SCar. Ala/Aub both lost to Ken so that tiebreaker would then fall to Fla, which Ala would win (Ala will be 2-0 or 1-1 vs Aub's 0-1 vs the gators).
I think that's right.
This post was edited on 3/4/24 at 12:55 pm
Posted on 3/4/24 at 1:01 pm to GamecockUltimate
USC 3-3 Q1 games
Kentucky 5-5 Q1 games
Kentucky 5-5 Q1 games
Posted on 3/4/24 at 1:04 pm to WildcatMike
I sure as hell wouldn't want to catch UK right now in the S16.
They seem like they've figured some things out.
They seem like they've figured some things out.
Posted on 3/4/24 at 1:53 pm to TeddyWestside
Yeah. I think Auburn is most likely to fall to a 5 because of our lack of Q1 wins.
However, our win over Miss State is a Quad 2 win. They are currently #32 and if they move up to #30 it becomes a Quad 1. Ole Miss is currently #78. If they move up to #75, our win in Oxford becomes a Quad 1 win. Our win over #101 Indiana is currently a Quad 3 win. If they move up one spot to #100, that becomes a Quad 2.
Currently Auburn is just 1-7 in Quad 1 games and 8-0 in Quad 2. But it’s not unrealistic that that could easily improve to 3-7 against Quad 1 and 7-0 against Quad 2.
I think it all depends on how things shake out down the stretch.
However, our win over Miss State is a Quad 2 win. They are currently #32 and if they move up to #30 it becomes a Quad 1. Ole Miss is currently #78. If they move up to #75, our win in Oxford becomes a Quad 1 win. Our win over #101 Indiana is currently a Quad 3 win. If they move up one spot to #100, that becomes a Quad 2.
Currently Auburn is just 1-7 in Quad 1 games and 8-0 in Quad 2. But it’s not unrealistic that that could easily improve to 3-7 against Quad 1 and 7-0 against Quad 2.
I think it all depends on how things shake out down the stretch.
Posted on 3/4/24 at 6:19 pm to McGregor
quote:
NIT Bracket
Until the mid 1970s, the NIT was a pretty big deal.
I vaguely remember watching Sr Bonaventure play one year.
I saw Mule King with Alabama beat Virginia with Jeff Lamp.at the BJCC
Posted on 3/4/24 at 6:20 pm to AUTiger789
I hope UK can get to a 3. Would be a great spot.
Posted on 3/4/24 at 7:09 pm to GamecockUltimate
quote:
I don't particularly understand how UK is a 4 seed. I don't see what makes their resume more impressive than SC.
It's simply the NET efficiency metrics that are dragging South Carolina down.
The main reason the NET is so low is that South Carolina played numerous close games (many at home) out of conference against some very bad teams:
73-69 Vs NET #315
73-68 Vs NET #321
74-64 Vs NET #364
Most teams with the same other great resume points South Carolina has (SEC record, Q1/Q2 wins) beat these type teams by 30-50 points. It really kills the computer efficiency numbers to have many games where all the stats are pretty equal with sub-300 NET teams.
Posted on 3/4/24 at 7:22 pm to AUTiger789
Lunardi hasn't updated his yet. SC moved up to a 5 seed on CBS.
Posted on 3/4/24 at 7:55 pm to gamecockman12
quote:
Lunardi hasn't updated his yet.
He has on Twitter
Posted on 3/4/24 at 8:22 pm to AUTiger789
State needs one more win and they should be locked in. I think their ceiling is a 7 seed but it will require beating both A&M and SC and then probably winning the first game in Nashville. The only way they get left out is if they lose out, and maybe not even then.
Posted on 3/4/24 at 8:23 pm to AUTiger789
quote:
He has on Twitter
He had south Carolina in the next four with Auburn. He's projected them as a 5 seed. Not a 6 seed.
Posted on 3/4/24 at 8:28 pm to McGregor
Would much rather see LSU in the bottom bracket if the top four fall that way.
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