re: Bama fans, without referencing prior success, why do you believe you win this year?

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Referencing past success is just acknowledging Saban's unprecedented success in big games. It is just as tangible as any other metric, maybe more so

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I think the point of the thread is to look at what the teams have this year. Saban's big game success would be included in his coaching ability. So coach vs coach. Yes. If you are wanting to just say "Saban has beat you the last 8 times he is better" then no.

I’m curious about this Bama pass rush narrative — LSU just managed AU’s D-line, and in terms of comparing the two teams... I think LSU leads sack stat at 20 vs 19 for Bama (both teams relying heavily on LBs and blitz for pressure).

Worth noting that comparing D-lines & WRs to each other is pointless because they won’t be on the field at the same time as each other...

As far as matchups that matter — neither D backfield is equipped to contain either team’s receiving options. LSU has a much larger advantage at interior DL with Shelvin than Bama does with edge rushers when comparing to respective O-lines.

My concern is I just don’t see how LSU can cover the middle of the field all game, but one could say the same for Bama.

Also watching for LSU red-zone offense because I know Bama likes to keep things in front & minimize explosive plays.

Very similar to what LSU plays (why both teams have large LB tilted sack stat). But back to what I was saying — makes more sense to look at the actual matchups than it does to compare defense to defense.

I’m concerned about LSU LBs in pass coverage — not really concerned about LSU O-line.

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I’m curious about this Bama pass rush narrative

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It wasn't all that great until we got everyone back. It's been pretty disruptive after that point. We get Lewis off the edge now and he has 5 sacks in the past 4 games without using the blitz.

The biggest thing I have liked seeing is that the DL, as of late, doesn't just get blocked and then the QB gets a pass off. They've been disruptive, getting PBUs at the LOS. We didn't have that most of the year.

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5 sacks in the past 4 games

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You know what’s funny about that is Arky actually had far and away the best O-line sack rate of all those teams (adjusted for garbage time).

LSU has been excellent in protection on passing downs but is comparable to Tenn/A&M overall — but that’s after facing AU. I think if we adjust this for competition, LSU probably has the best pass protection Bama has seen this far.

Hard not to feel confident in that area after little issue moving the ball on that AU front.

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I agree. That's why I was giving the advantage to the Alabama WR's earlier

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I have a hard time imagining either d backfield shutting down either QB, so if there’s any advantage it would be minuscule in either case.

I expect Bama to score plenty, but Burrow is the kind of guy a team needs to go in and steal a W out of a hostile environment on a big stage.

Stat sheet/home field/last year has me leaning Bama by 7-10, but from what I have seen from Joe the past two years in terms of grit + the new scheme it is hard to imagine him not winning right now.

Tua ain’t no slouch, but with so many factors close to even I do like Burrow’s intangibles being on LSU’s side... Granted I’d also take Saban at the helm over Orgeron (no slight against O). Should be fun to watch.