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re: Analyzing the 4 CF Playoff Teams
Posted on 12/19/17 at 9:13 am to iglass
Posted on 12/19/17 at 9:13 am to iglass
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against top 50 opponents only? I'm not sure that's truly reflective.
So Bama's performance against Auburn (bad), LSU (average), MSU (average), Florida State (average), and Texas A&M (average) are not at all indicative of its team.... but how they beat up on Ole Miss (6-6), Vanderbilt (5-7), Arkansas (4-8), and Tennessee (4-8) is highly meaningful in how they'll play against Clemson. Do I have this right?
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Example: A team can have a great defense, a crappy offense, and not be ranked in the top 50 overall.
If a team can't manage to be ranked in the Top 50, then its not a good team. Period. The only reason I even included the Top 50 rather than the top 30 or 40 was because of Bama's shear lack of quality opponents. I stretched it to the Top 50 so Bama could at least have another opponent considered (Texas A&M) and so it would help improve Bama's overall numbers. Because let's face it, Bama's numbers against those other 4... especially on offense.... are absolutely dreadful.
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IMHO, this is a case where numbers probably don't mean as much as you think they do.
Right. We're back to this "Eye Test" science of determining a team's value. Only problem is that Bama failed the eye test against just about every opponent that finished above .500 this year.
Numbers and statistics at this stage in the season are far more meaningful than you want to believe. If a team struggles against the best opponent they played... the 2nd best opponent they played... the third best opponent they played... the 4th best opponent they played... and also the 5th best opponent they played, then there may be some issues with that team. Call me crazy.
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Posted on 12/19/17 at 9:24 am to momentoftruth87
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Wasn't even frustration. Just posting on the rant and I'm a wiseass.
Well, I get frustrated with the crappy threads.
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Genuinely happy for you guys.
Posted on 12/19/17 at 9:45 am to DawgsLife
Alabama will clearly have to play better on offense to beat Clemson and/or OU/UGA. There is no doubt about that.
Defense was already pretty solid and gets 3 starters back at 100%. So, those numbers are encouraging knowing that additional information (plus the offense they will be going up against and their strengths/weaknesses).
If the offense sticks to form as they performed/play called against FSU/LSU/Auburn then Alabama will not win. Normally you'd have to say after 12 games it is what it is, but it does feel like Alabama showed flashes on offense (especially in the run game) and inexplicably went away from it at key points. So, there seems to at least be a glimmer that maybe there is something there that hasn't been mined and could be with 30 days to plan. The flipside of that is, why would it be any different than it was for 12 games and why would we expect Daboll to be any different in-game with wacky adjustments away from things that appear to be working?
My overall feeling is that we will play very well on defense and frustrate Clemson. However, I'm not sure our offense will be able to stay on the field enough and eventually Clemson will make some plays against a worn out defense late. My hope is that we come out and run the football enough and well enough that we are the ones wearing Clemson down late, but I just can't "expect" that given the previous 12 games (mainly the 3/4 games against solid defenses). We'll see.
I will say that I sure do love having J.K. Scott punting in a dome in a game like this (and the fact that Clemson's FG kicking is tire fire level bad).
Defense was already pretty solid and gets 3 starters back at 100%. So, those numbers are encouraging knowing that additional information (plus the offense they will be going up against and their strengths/weaknesses).
If the offense sticks to form as they performed/play called against FSU/LSU/Auburn then Alabama will not win. Normally you'd have to say after 12 games it is what it is, but it does feel like Alabama showed flashes on offense (especially in the run game) and inexplicably went away from it at key points. So, there seems to at least be a glimmer that maybe there is something there that hasn't been mined and could be with 30 days to plan. The flipside of that is, why would it be any different than it was for 12 games and why would we expect Daboll to be any different in-game with wacky adjustments away from things that appear to be working?
My overall feeling is that we will play very well on defense and frustrate Clemson. However, I'm not sure our offense will be able to stay on the field enough and eventually Clemson will make some plays against a worn out defense late. My hope is that we come out and run the football enough and well enough that we are the ones wearing Clemson down late, but I just can't "expect" that given the previous 12 games (mainly the 3/4 games against solid defenses). We'll see.
I will say that I sure do love having J.K. Scott punting in a dome in a game like this (and the fact that Clemson's FG kicking is tire fire level bad).
This post was edited on 12/19/17 at 9:56 am
Posted on 12/19/17 at 10:57 am to SilverStallion
I'm just glad we have an all southern playoff. Every team in this thing is from a collard eatin' state.
Posted on 12/19/17 at 11:10 am to BHMKyle
I guess the point of this thread is to say Alabama doesn’t belong in the playoffs.
Posted on 12/19/17 at 11:17 am to BoomerSooner
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New here, been lurking for a couple weeks. This is an interesting breakdown. It's hard to compare these two teams just based on being polar opposites as far as the way they play the game. The conference are completely different. As a Sooner fan, a few things that concern me...
The long wait to play the game. Does this offense come out sluggish? I've felt,in the past that it took our offense at least a quarter to get going in some of the bowl games. Last year, Lincoln Riley made some changes as to the way the offense practiced and against Auburn we seemed pretty sharp early. I am in no way comparing last years Auburn team to this years Goergia team.
If Uga gets in our recievers faces and jam them at the line, how well do the OU recievers got off of press coverage? This again could throw off the timing of the offense.
Defensively, our middle linebacker is a true freshman. I thinks he's had a really good year and has gotten better throughout the year. I think he is going to have to have a great game for OU to win. He is going to have to be keyed in and diagnose plays quickly and be physical at the point of attack.
There's more to this game, but after lurking for a couple weeks these are a few topics that I haven't seen talked about. I'm not here to troll, just looking for a good conversation about this game.
UGA's weaknesses are similar with jamming the receivers. Auburn manhandled our WRs the first game (tackled us out of bounds with the ball in the air with no flag thrown?!?) If the refs don't call it, I don't blame auburn for continuing to do it.
We are great at defensive adjustments. But that also means that we are being forced to adjust. Auburn scored 7 on the first drive of the seccg. Missouri put up 14 easy points in the first half over the top. Can we be prepared at the start of the game? Can we correct mistakes before the defense tires?
Offensively, we win the game if we win first and second down. A solid mix of run and pass. Our sacks allowed numbers are good. But we are not good on 3rd and long with pass protection.
For most of the year, we ran the ball 80% of the time on 1st down. That doesn't work at this level of competition (we were very effective against auburn in the rematch with balance on 1st down).
Posted on 12/19/17 at 11:47 am to meansonny
its feels to me that our defense makes decent adjustments at halftime. Even against OSU, even giving up 52 (embarrassing) defensively we played better in the second half. I agree that if goergia is able to run the ball on early downs, it doesn't bode well for my Sooners. OU has to put goergia in situations where everyone knows the dawgs are throwing the ball. I'm not taking anything away from Fromm, but I would rather him have to win the game than to have the stable of backs getting big yards on first and second down.
Offensively, I believe Lincoln Riley will try to neutralize Mr. Smith by making him cover down field. Coach Riley has done a good job of creating mismatches with linebackers. We've got to do something to hold the linebackers for a bit, not letting them run sideline to sideline making plays.
Should be a great game!
Offensively, I believe Lincoln Riley will try to neutralize Mr. Smith by making him cover down field. Coach Riley has done a good job of creating mismatches with linebackers. We've got to do something to hold the linebackers for a bit, not letting them run sideline to sideline making plays.
Should be a great game!
Posted on 12/19/17 at 11:51 am to BoomerSooner
I can't wait for the Oklahoma-Georgia game. Almost wish I didn't have a rooting interest in the game to follow it so that I would just be able to sit there and watch without near seizures and the runs getting nervous about our game.
Posted on 12/19/17 at 12:01 pm to SummerOfGeorge
SummerofGoerge, I agree and the wait would be near as bad. But, we are the lucky ones, our teams get to play for all the marbles. I just try to enjoy that!
Posted on 12/19/17 at 12:01 pm to BoomerSooner
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But, we are the lucky ones, our teams get to play for all the marbles. I just try to enjoy that!
Posted on 12/19/17 at 12:09 pm to BoomerSooner
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Lincoln Riley will try to neutralize Mr. Smith by making him cover down field.
My guess is that Roquan is assigned to shut down your tailbacks (running and receiving). They are a big percentage of your offensive yards. Forcing Mayfield to beat us without the tailbacks to help may be the gameplan. Whether we can move Mayfield off his spot but keep him contained in the pocket is the question.
Posted on 12/19/17 at 12:48 pm to meansonny
I can see that being the plan defensively for goergia. On the other side of that, your linebackers are going to have to help with the tightens and full back. Both of those guys, especially Andrews TE can create physical mismatches with safeties. One of the things that makes OU's offense hard to defend is the personnel. We keep Flowers FB and Andrews TE on the field. They can both put their hand on the ground on the line or both can split out, it makes it hard for defenses to run different personnel groupings on the field. I think OU has to be able to run the football to win this game. We don't have to run for 200 yards, but we have to be able to run it enough to make Uga respect that we can.
Posted on 12/19/17 at 12:53 pm to BoomerSooner
Keeping the TE and FB helps our personnel. It will basically remain our base 3-4 personnel (that may be different in the big xii, but it isn't an advantage for you in the sec).
The 3-4 is variable enough that we can manage a balanced attack without having to worry about personnel.
Putting us in dime and nickel all night is where we would be thinnest from a quality personnel standpoint.
Your TE will probably have a monster day. But again, eliminating the tailacks from the equation is the hope to get you to fail on 3rd downs.
The 3-4 is variable enough that we can manage a balanced attack without having to worry about personnel.
Putting us in dime and nickel all night is where we would be thinnest from a quality personnel standpoint.
Your TE will probably have a monster day. But again, eliminating the tailacks from the equation is the hope to get you to fail on 3rd downs.
Posted on 12/19/17 at 12:56 pm to BHMKyle
Will be rooting for UGA to win it all but y’all definitely have your work cut out for you.
Posted on 12/19/17 at 1:13 pm to meansonny
Ya, I expect you guys to stay in your base defense. We do see some nickel and dime. Uga matches up with us athletically better than most. However, I do expect Uga to rush four most of the night. We will keep
The FB and TE on the field most of the time, that's just what we do. I don't think we'll change that, it's gotten us this far. I expect we'll try to put pressure on your bigger backers to cover recievers/rbs downfield.
It's a chest match for sure and I enjoy it.
The FB and TE on the field most of the time, that's just what we do. I don't think we'll change that, it's gotten us this far. I expect we'll try to put pressure on your bigger backers to cover recievers/rbs downfield.
It's a chest match for sure and I enjoy it.
Posted on 12/19/17 at 1:18 pm to BoomerSooner
I always enjoy a good chest match.
Posted on 12/19/17 at 1:23 pm to Morris1
Yeah the game of chest can be a tricky one. I hope to see a chest match of the ages.
This post was edited on 12/19/17 at 1:24 pm
Posted on 12/19/17 at 1:26 pm to CrimsonBoz
Typically I'm a decent speller, especially from the great state of Oklahoma. The kids are at the grandparents for Christmas break, hoping for a chest match later this evening!
Posted on 12/19/17 at 1:28 pm to Morris1
One thing that I don't like the looks of is Georgia's margin of victory. When I looked back over the regular season, they pretty much lit everyone up. We can compare Big 12 apples to SEC oranges and all that, but Georgia beat the dog mess out of just about everyone on their schedule.
Posted on 12/19/17 at 1:28 pm to BoomerSooner
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I expect we'll try to put pressure on your bigger backers to cover recievers/rbs downfield.
Well, if you have a 21 personnel, that means you only have 2 receivers on the field. 4 DBs over 2 receivers and a tight end is a matchup that I can live with.
You are confirming that 1 linebacker will be on your tailback (probably roquan) and another linebacker on your fullback (would vary depending on where he lines up).
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