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re: Alabama QB Mac Jones has orchestrated arguably the best passing attack in CFB history

Posted on 1/3/21 at 4:49 pm to
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
104987 posts
Posted on 1/3/21 at 4:49 pm to
quote:

Why is missing starters only an excuse when Bama fans say it matters?


I mean, they don't really need an excuse? The point was they performed well even with some of their best players not playing.

quote:

Out of curiosity, where is Cincinatti ranked offensively in that system?



Cincinnati is #16 in yards per play this season, averaging 6.67 and #17 in scoring offense, averaging 38 PPG. Georgia held them 2.5+ YPP and 17 points below their averages.
This post was edited on 1/3/21 at 4:51 pm
Posted by dstone12
Texan
Member since Jan 2007
35333 posts
Posted on 1/3/21 at 4:50 pm to
quote:

Again, we can’t help it if your team of pussies opted out. Sounds like your team has the problem, not Bama’s.



This is your dumb arse admitting that the competition is, in fact, weaker.

Thank you. I’m out.



Posted by Terrific Tales
Member since Jan 2019
19844 posts
Posted on 1/3/21 at 4:51 pm to
Oh no I know where they are in those metrics

I want to know where they are in 3Down10’s holy grail of metrics, since we are comparing it to Georgia allegedly having the #6 defense in the country

And while we’re at it, where does Georgia rank in passing defense in that metric?
Posted by 3down10
Member since Sep 2014
30733 posts
Posted on 1/3/21 at 4:51 pm to
quote:


We played two more SEC teams during the regular season than we have ever before. Of course it was a full season.

Maybe you guys put more stock in playing the Sam Houston States and Portland States of the the world than you should.


It's extremely funny when LSU fans try that "not a full season".

As if we need to add a FCS team and a crappy G5 team to make things complete.

Posted by Sid E Walker
InsecureU ©
Member since Nov 2013
24452 posts
Posted on 1/3/21 at 4:51 pm to
See ya, d!
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
104987 posts
Posted on 1/3/21 at 4:52 pm to
quote:

I want to know where they are in 3Down10’s holy grail of metrics, since we are comparing it to Georgia allegedly having the #6 defense in the country



I don't know what 3rd was using, but Cincy is #31 in FEI's Total Offense, #23 in F+.
This post was edited on 1/3/21 at 4:52 pm
Posted by 3down10
Member since Sep 2014
30733 posts
Posted on 1/3/21 at 4:52 pm to
quote:

Oh no I know where they are in those metrics

I want to know where they are in 3Down10’s holy grail of metrics, since we are comparing it to Georgia allegedly having the #6 defense in the country

And while we’re at it, where does Georgia rank in passing defense in that metric?


F+ ratings

Cincy has the #23 ranked offense.
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
104987 posts
Posted on 1/3/21 at 4:53 pm to
quote:

And while we’re at it, where does Georgia rank in passing defense in that metric?



Unfortunately, unlike SP+, FEI and F+ don't have a pass defense metric readily available. Which sucks.
This post was edited on 1/3/21 at 4:55 pm
Posted by Crimson K
Tuscaloosa
Member since Dec 2018
5813 posts
Posted on 1/3/21 at 4:54 pm to
quote:


Big difference in the two. Burrow threw to WRs in a crowd. Jones throws to wide open WRs or five yard slants that turn into 60 yard TDs.



I can assure you that Burrow had some wide open throws with the WR corps he had. Also, is a tough catch in a crowd a sign of a great qb or really good wideouts. (Maybe both). As a good example, Trask threw lots of 50/50 balls, but when Pitt’s was the target, they were more like 80/20. Of you go look at the bolder parts of the article, it shows that Mac has made a lot of tight window throws...
Posted by cyde
He gone
Member since Nov 2005
31876 posts
Posted on 1/3/21 at 4:57 pm to
Wow, this thread sure seems to have generated a bit of mad online.
Posted by 3down10
Member since Sep 2014
30733 posts
Posted on 1/3/21 at 4:58 pm to
quote:

And while we’re at it, where does Georgia rank in passing defense in that metric?




FEI Stats

Here are the FEI stats in total. It doesn't do passing only.

These are efficiency ratings. I personally like SP+ overall, but ESPN bought those part of the F+ a few years ago and put it behind a paywall. Happy for Bill, but frick you ESPN for that.

quote:


FEI ratings (FEI) represent the per-possession scoring advantage a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. Offense ratings (OFEI) and defense ratings (DFEI) represent the per-possession scoring advantages for each team unit against an average opponent unit. FEI, OFEI, and DFEI ratings are based on a combination of opponent-adjusted results to date and preseason projections.

Net points per drive (NPD) is the difference between points scored per offensive drive and points allowed per opponent offensive drive. Net available yards percentage (NAY) is the difference between offensive available yards percentage and opponent offensive available yards percentage. Net yards per play (NPP) is the difference between drive yards per offensive play and drive yards allowed per opponent offensive play. Three different schedule strength ratings for games played to date are provided, based on current FEI ratings, representing the expected number of losses an elite team two standard deviations better than average would have against the given team's schedule (ELS), the expected number of losses a good team one standard deviation above average would have against the schedule (GLS), and the expected number of losses an average team would have against the schedule (ALS).
Posted by Terrific Tales
Member since Jan 2019
19844 posts
Posted on 1/3/21 at 5:00 pm to
Thanks for the link.

I think the interesting thing with all of these is how impossible it is to get these perfect, no matter how much you try to account for

For example Tennessee and Mississipi State are both ranked far far lower offensively than Cincinatti, but Tennessee put up the same amount of points and State put up more

Not to say that those offenses are necessarily better, it just really is impossible
Posted by Ingeniero
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2013
20242 posts
Posted on 1/3/21 at 5:00 pm to
"This is a normal, full season!"

"Of course kentucky isn't a top defense, you have to use statistics that adjust for the season being irregular!"
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
104987 posts
Posted on 1/3/21 at 5:02 pm to
quote:

Thanks for the link.

I think the interesting thing with all of these is how impossible it is to get these perfect, no matter how much you try to account for

For example Tennessee and Mississipi State are both ranked far far lower offensively than Cincinatti, but Tennessee put up the same amount of points and State put up more

Not to say that those offenses are necessarily better, it just really is impossible


Totally agree - and 3rd and I have discussed this a lot, but the lack of interconference games really makes it hard to do any sort of full, national statistics this season - even the advanced ones. There just aren't enough cross over data points.

The numbers in-conference, though, are about as complete as we'll ever get, since everyone played almost everyone else.
This post was edited on 1/3/21 at 5:03 pm
Posted by 3down10
Member since Sep 2014
30733 posts
Posted on 1/3/21 at 5:04 pm to
quote:



Totally agree - and 3rd and I have discussed this a lot, but the lack of interconference games really makes it hard to do any sort of full, national statistics this season - even the advanced ones. There just aren't enough cross over data points.

The numbers in-conference, though, are about as complete as we'll ever get, since everyone played almost everyone else.


Yep, I mostly only use them for conference rankings this year.

And while I wouldn't put much into the rankings between conferences, I'm sure they are still much better than the raw stats. There is still some adjustment being done, which is much better than none.
Posted by Terrific Tales
Member since Jan 2019
19844 posts
Posted on 1/3/21 at 5:05 pm to
They also have LSU ranked as the #2 team last year, before the NCG which seems ridiculous to me, considering I never once thought Ohio State was the best team in the country last year
Posted by Grievous Angel
Tuscaloosa, AL
Member since Dec 2008
10305 posts
Posted on 1/3/21 at 5:10 pm to
quote:

Best. Season. Of. All. Time.


This is bookmark material.

Downvoted.
Posted by labamafan
Prairieville
Member since Jan 2007
25722 posts
Posted on 1/3/21 at 5:10 pm to
Without any trolling or arguing can anyone tell me why these two put up huge numbers not counting multiple NFL receivers?
Posted by 3down10
Member since Sep 2014
30733 posts
Posted on 1/3/21 at 5:12 pm to
quote:

Thanks for the link.

I think the interesting thing with all of these is how impossible it is to get these perfect, no matter how much you try to account for

For example Tennessee and Mississipi State are both ranked far far lower offensively than Cincinatti, but Tennessee put up the same amount of points and State put up more

Not to say that those offenses are necessarily better, it just really is impossible


I did opponent adjusted stats for a few years back in 2008-2012. Very similar to SP+. Then stats needed to do those things were no longer free, and SP+ was filtering out garbage time, so now I just look at SP+(F+ now because ESPN)

It is impossible to ever get right because of limited data points. The more limited, the worse it is. I like to think of them as being like trying on different pairs of glasses. When it's early in the season and the data points are limited, it's like looking at things and it's a very blurry picture. As more and more data points come in, the picture gets more and more clear and the stats become accurate.

As SOG mentioned, this year the SEC is kind of in it's own bubble. There are no data points between the SEC and other conferences until this bowl week. And it's the same for the other conferences mostly as well. So I think it's a bit more blurry this year than ever, BUT, when it comes to comparing SEC teams against each other, it's more clear than ever.
Posted by skrayper
21-0 Asterisk Drive
Member since Nov 2012
33160 posts
Posted on 1/3/21 at 5:12 pm to
quote:

He can have those four games and throw 6 touchdowns in each and still not beat burrows record.


Yeah, he'd have to steal TDs from his RB.
Didn't know Burrow was such a greedy SOB until you pointed it out. Good point LSU fan!
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