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AI based CFP projection with comments on each team
Posted on 12/6/25 at 11:35 pm
Posted on 12/6/25 at 11:35 pm
AI based CFP ranking projection which accounts for committee dumbassery
Projected CFP Top 12 (Selection Day – Dec. 7, 2025)
1. Indiana — The lone unbeaten left and Big Ten champ after a 13-10 win over Ohio State should be the committee’s easiest No. 1 call.
2. Ohio State — A narrow title-game loss to the new No. 1 is still a résumé strong enough to hold a top-two slot and a bye.
3. Georgia — The SEC champ’s emphatic 28-7 win over Alabama should cement a top-three ranking.
4. Texas Tech — Dominating BYU 34-7 to win the Big 12 should keep the Red Raiders safely in the bye range.
5. Oregon — Idle but steady, with a one-loss profile that still stacks up cleanly against the at-large pack.
6. Ole Miss — The Rebels’ position is helped by their top-end wins and the chaos below them.
7. Texas A&M — Still a high-end one-loss team in the committee’s eyes, even without a title-game boost.
8. Oklahoma — A stable host-range team unless the committee rewrites the middle of the SEC/Big 12 stack.
9. Notre Dame — The Irish benefit from BYU’s loss and Alabama’s third defeat, and should remain solidly in.
10. Alabama — The committee likely drops the Tide but may still keep them just inside the field based on overall résumé despite the 28-7 loss to Georgia.
11. Tulane — Winning the American over North Texas 34-21 should secure the top Group of Five position.
12. James Madison — The Sun Belt champ’s 31-14 win over Troy gives the committee a clean way to award the fifth automatic champion slot over a five-loss ACC champ.
Comments? I am not endorsing this but did instruct the model to account for comments and implied policies the CFP committee is using.
Projected CFP Top 12 (Selection Day – Dec. 7, 2025)
1. Indiana — The lone unbeaten left and Big Ten champ after a 13-10 win over Ohio State should be the committee’s easiest No. 1 call.
2. Ohio State — A narrow title-game loss to the new No. 1 is still a résumé strong enough to hold a top-two slot and a bye.
3. Georgia — The SEC champ’s emphatic 28-7 win over Alabama should cement a top-three ranking.
4. Texas Tech — Dominating BYU 34-7 to win the Big 12 should keep the Red Raiders safely in the bye range.
5. Oregon — Idle but steady, with a one-loss profile that still stacks up cleanly against the at-large pack.
6. Ole Miss — The Rebels’ position is helped by their top-end wins and the chaos below them.
7. Texas A&M — Still a high-end one-loss team in the committee’s eyes, even without a title-game boost.
8. Oklahoma — A stable host-range team unless the committee rewrites the middle of the SEC/Big 12 stack.
9. Notre Dame — The Irish benefit from BYU’s loss and Alabama’s third defeat, and should remain solidly in.
10. Alabama — The committee likely drops the Tide but may still keep them just inside the field based on overall résumé despite the 28-7 loss to Georgia.
11. Tulane — Winning the American over North Texas 34-21 should secure the top Group of Five position.
12. James Madison — The Sun Belt champ’s 31-14 win over Troy gives the committee a clean way to award the fifth automatic champion slot over a five-loss ACC champ.
Comments? I am not endorsing this but did instruct the model to account for comments and implied policies the CFP committee is using.
This post was edited on 12/6/25 at 11:43 pm
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Posted on 12/6/25 at 11:37 pm to ColoradoElkHerd
With Tulane winning their conference and rising in the rankings, it improved Ole Miss’s strength of schedule and strength of record, giving them wins over two playoff teams. They could pass Oregon who has zero wins over a playoff team.
Posted on 12/6/25 at 11:38 pm to ColoradoElkHerd
OSU has to drop to at least 4 they lost to Indiana for God sakes. Duke in over Miami and Notre Dame....
Posted on 12/6/25 at 11:39 pm to TreadP
Can someone still please explain why notre dame should be in over Miami?
They lost head to head. All else being equal, that needs to matter
I don’t like James Madison in there. Their schedule was atrocious. I’d put Duke. Better win at end. Beating Troy is
Tulane at least manned up and played two teams with a pulse: Northwestern and ole miss.
They lost head to head. All else being equal, that needs to matter
I don’t like James Madison in there. Their schedule was atrocious. I’d put Duke. Better win at end. Beating Troy is
Tulane at least manned up and played two teams with a pulse: Northwestern and ole miss.
This post was edited on 12/6/25 at 11:41 pm
Posted on 12/6/25 at 11:40 pm to ColoradoElkHerd
Tulane and JMU being in is crying shame. Vandy or Texas would beat the snot out of them. What a joke
Posted on 12/6/25 at 11:41 pm to schwartzy
JMU is automatically in due to rules.
Posted on 12/6/25 at 11:41 pm to ColoradoElkHerd
It should be BCS style game with Georgia vs Indiana.
Posted on 12/6/25 at 11:41 pm to ColoradoElkHerd
Anyone know if the methodology this site uses for probability is sound? LINK
Posted on 12/6/25 at 11:42 pm to GeekedUp
All the committee tells me is just play a crap schedule and go 11-1 or 12-0 and you’ll always get in
Posted on 12/6/25 at 11:43 pm to crimsoncoded94
What if the committee ranked duke ahead of Tulane or James Madison?
Posted on 12/6/25 at 11:43 pm to schwartzy
Also, move to the sunbelt conference, lol
Posted on 12/6/25 at 11:44 pm to 3down10
quote:
It should be BCS style game with Georgia vs Indiana.
Remove the AP component from the BCS and add Vegas.
Posted on 12/6/25 at 11:44 pm to TreadP
OM’s only loss was to UGA, whose performance today also helps OM’s rating.
Posted on 12/6/25 at 11:44 pm to ColoradoElkHerd
two of bama, miami, and ND are getting in
only the committee knows which two
only the committee knows which two
Posted on 12/6/25 at 11:44 pm to JCdawg
Theres no way Duke can jump that high.
If they did the committee would be full of shite.
If they did the committee would be full of shite.
Posted on 12/6/25 at 11:45 pm to ColoradoElkHerd
quote:
8. Oklahoma — A stable host-range team unless the committee rewrites the middle of the SEC/Big 12 stack.
Was AI created by the ghost of Todd Christensen? The amount of irrelevant blathering makes me wonder.
Posted on 12/6/25 at 11:45 pm to ColoradoElkHerd
That's what I think happens, but I think with Virginia losing there's a real possibility of having Miami and ND at 9/10 instead. I feel like they might throw a bone to the SEC. Doesn't help that Bama looked like shite today.
Posted on 12/6/25 at 11:51 pm to schwartzy
quote:
Can someone still please explain why notre dame should be in over Miami?
1.Because losses matter also. Miami has 2 bad losses in the middle of the season with no extenuating circumstances.
2. The CFP give conference champions a favorable advantage and MiAmi did not even make it to a conference championship game.
3. How does Miami jump the the conference championship game winner and both teams in the championship game?
4. Cry to the ACC if you think Miami should get special treatment before crying to the CFP committee.
Posted on 12/6/25 at 11:52 pm to crimsoncoded94
quote:Politics.
If they did the committee would be full of shite.
Duke can get in for an ACC representative. If Duke doesn’t pass James Madison Miami will be in unless they flip Bama and Notre Dame.
The committee is going to get a lot of heat for putting Notre Dame in over Miami if they don’t leave BYU at 11 and Bama at 9 or 10. Which would be a balmy day compared to what the SEC reps will say if the consider dropping Bama out.
I’d sure like to be in the room for that conversation.
Posted on 12/6/25 at 11:53 pm to ColoradoElkHerd
Looks good
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