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A couple of 4-way tie SECCG scenarios

Posted on 10/30/24 at 2:16 pm
Posted by LSUTigresFan
SE Louisiana to Austin (Texas Ex)
Member since Mar 2013
2723 posts
Posted on 10/30/24 at 2:16 pm
Let's assume all of the favorites win in conference outside of these teams.

Scenario #1: UGA, Texas, Texas A&M, LSU all tied at 7-1

A) Head-to-head competition among the tied teams
- first look and see if there is a complete round robin among all of the tied teams.
- There is not a complete round robin among these teams
- LSU did not play UGA
- Texas A&M did not play UGA
- Texas did not play LSU
- if one team beat all of the tied teams, they move on or they get eliminated if they loss to all of the tied teams.
- No team either beat all the other tied teams or lost to all the other tied teams, advance to Record versus common Conference opponents

B) Record versus all common Conference opponents among the tied teams
- Florida would be the only team and all the tied teams beat them

C) Record against highest (best) placed common Conference opponent, proceeding through the Conference standings among the tied teams
- All teams are tied here (only all played Florida)

D) Cumulative Conference winning percentage of all Conference opponents among the tied teams
- This standings will produce a first place winner (Texas A&M)
- The remaining teams revert to the beginning of the applicable tiebreaker procedures

LSU, UGA, Texas:
Not a complete round robin, once again only Florida as a common opponent, so LSU would be the away team because of conference winning percentage

UGA would then finish 3rd and Texas 4th because of head to head.



Scenario #2: Tennessee, Texas, Texas A&M, LSU all tied at 7-1

A) Head-to-head competition among the tied teams
- There is not a complete round robin among these teams
- LSU did not play Tennessee
- Texas A&M did not play Tennessee
- Texas did not play Tennessee
- Texas did not play LSU
- No team either beat all the other tied teams or lost to all the other tied teams, advance to Record versus common Conference opponents

B) Record versus all common Conference opponents among the tied teams
- Florida and Arkansas would be the teams
- Everyone won besides Tennessee (1-1) so they are eliminated
- We restart with Texas A&M, LSU, and Texas


A) Head-to-head competition among the tied teams
- There is not a complete round robin among these teams
- Texas did not play LSU
- No team either beat all the other tied teams or lost to all the other tied teams, advance to Record versus common Conference opponents

B) All tied here
C) All tied here
D) Texas A&M has best winning percentage, restart with LSU and Texas

A) Did not play
B) Texas beats out LSU because of common conference opponent record

Texas A&M vs Texas
This post was edited on 10/30/24 at 3:13 pm
Posted by Houag80
Member since Jul 2019
11770 posts
Posted on 10/30/24 at 2:19 pm to
That made my head hurt; however, you put considerable time in researching those scenarios...nice job.
Posted by LSUTigresFan
SE Louisiana to Austin (Texas Ex)
Member since Mar 2013
2723 posts
Posted on 10/30/24 at 2:20 pm to
quote:

That made my head hurt; however, you put considerable time in researching those scenarios...nice job.


I'm a math and cs person so this is how my brain works. What's crazy is one underdog win can knock certain teams out.
This post was edited on 10/30/24 at 2:22 pm
Posted by TexasOnTop
Member since Nov 2023
3398 posts
Posted on 10/30/24 at 2:27 pm to
Excellent breakdown!

I think in the end it will all sort itself out, and we will have 2 participants without using a tiebreaker. If i remeber correctly, we were in this same situation last year at this time with OU, KState and OSU.
Posted by BigOrangeKen
Union City
Member since Oct 2015
3203 posts
Posted on 10/30/24 at 2:30 pm to
Unless we win out we won’t be in it

We all still have lots of ball to play and anything can happen.
Posted by David Fellows
Chicago but Georgia on my mind
Member since Mar 2024
102 posts
Posted on 10/30/24 at 2:31 pm to
Whoever is first team out is the winner. Going for that coveted 5th seed!
Posted by JetDawg
Los Angeles/USC Trojans fan/alum
Member since Oct 2020
8327 posts
Posted on 10/30/24 at 2:31 pm to
i said before the season began, this year was going to be a weird football season.

It has been and it's not finished, yet.
Posted by idlewatcher
Planet Arium
Member since Jan 2012
82027 posts
Posted on 10/30/24 at 2:33 pm to
Well assembled OP

We ain't beating Bama though so it's moot. And Bama also sucks.
Posted by Tha crook
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2018
941 posts
Posted on 10/30/24 at 2:34 pm to
Just win baby win
Posted by WG_Dawg
Member since Jun 2004
87733 posts
Posted on 10/30/24 at 2:34 pm to
quote:

Scenario #1: UGA, Texas, Texas A&M, LSU all tied at 7-1


quote:

Cumulative Conference winning percentage of all Conference opponents among the tied teams
- This standings will produce a first place winner (Texas A&M)


Have you done the math on this for each team? I damn sure am not going to attempt it (I'd probably flub it up anyway) but aTm would have played 4 of the league's worst teams. Their marquee wins in conference would be LSU and Texas. UGA would have played bama, texas, tennessee, and ole miss.

At a first, very casual quick glance, I'm not seeing how aTms SEC Opponent Win % would be higher than UGAs?
Posted by Murph4HOF
A-T-L-A-N-T-A (that's where I stay)
Member since Sep 2019
13372 posts
Posted on 10/30/24 at 2:36 pm to
Scenario #3

Play the games on the schedule and worry about this going into the final week of the season if it is a possibility.

It would be funny if everyone in the SEC is tuning in for Arkansas-Mizzou because the outcome and margin of victory in that game decides who goes to the SECCG.
Posted by HorninHouston
Member since Sep 2024
354 posts
Posted on 10/30/24 at 2:36 pm to
I have zero concern about the sec championship game. I just want to get through the next 3 so the ag game means something. That's a tall order with twinkle-toes quinn leading the offense.
Posted by Tantal
Member since Sep 2012
16219 posts
Posted on 10/30/24 at 2:48 pm to
quote:

Whoever is first team out is the winner. Going for that coveted 5th seed!

A playoff game against Iowa state or Boise is easier than a SECCG against GA, LSU, TAMU, or TX.
Posted by DawginSC
Member since Aug 2022
6379 posts
Posted on 10/30/24 at 2:48 pm to
The funny part of this is that if UGA wins out and Oregon loses, UGA will likely be the #1 team in the nation at the end of the year.

11-1 with wins over Clemson, Texas, Ole Miss and Tennessee (only one home game) and the only loss on the road at Bama by 7.

All that... and not in the SEC championship game.
Wouldn't really bother me... but I WOULD be amused.

I think LSU loses to Bama though. So that would make there be a maximum of 3 teams with 0 or 1 loss.

I believe it would be A&M vs UGA or A&M vs Texas.

Posted by DawginSC
Member since Aug 2022
6379 posts
Posted on 10/30/24 at 2:49 pm to
quote:

A playoff game against Iowa state or Boise is easier than a SECCG against GA, LSU, TAMU, or TX.


Perhaps, but the playoff game would be an elimination game while the SECCG might not be (it might be for the teams with an OOC loss though).

Posted by WG_Dawg
Member since Jun 2004
87733 posts
Posted on 10/30/24 at 2:50 pm to
quote:

Going for that coveted 5th seed!

A playoff game against Iowa state or Boise is easier than a SECCG against GA, LSU, TAMU, or TX.


Plus the 5 seed is matched up in the next round with the 4 seed. #5 really is in a terrific spot.
Posted by Bill Parker?
Member since Jan 2013
4590 posts
Posted on 10/30/24 at 2:57 pm to
frick all that shite. Just put the game on my color TV so I can sit in my recliner with my dog and a 12 pack and watch.
Posted by JJxvi
Houston, TX
Member since Aug 2011
433 posts
Posted on 10/30/24 at 3:08 pm to
quote:

Have you done the math on this for each team? I damn sure am not going to attempt it (I'd probably flub it up anyway) but aTm would have played 4 of the league's worst teams. Their marquee wins in conference would be LSU and Texas. UGA would have played bama, texas, tennessee, and ole miss.

At a first, very casual quick glance, I'm not seeing how aTms SEC Opponent Win % would be higher than UGAs?


Texas and A&M will each have played two of the other 7-1 teams while Georgia and LSU only played one (for the first scenario)

Between Georgia and A&M...Auburn, Miss St, Texas, Florida are common opponents and will be equal no matter what. The four that will make the difference would be as follows:

A&M: LSU (7-1 per scenario), South Carolina (4-4) Arkansas (3-5) Missouri (4-4). Theres multiple common games between South Carolina, Arkansas, and Missouri, that wont make a difference either way, someone will win and someone will lose.

Georgia: Alabama (5-3), Tennessee (6-2), Ole Miss (5-3), Kentucky (1-7)

A&Ms non common opponents would be 18-14 and Georgia's (17-15)

It's close enough that its not set in stone.

Basically if the requirement that LSU wins out is thrown out, Georgia can be ahead of A&M in these tiebreakers with only an Alabama win over LSU.
This post was edited on 10/30/24 at 3:11 pm
Posted by BigBro
Member since Jul 2021
12797 posts
Posted on 10/30/24 at 3:08 pm to
quote:

At a first, very casual quick glance, I'm not seeing how aTms SEC Opponent Win % would be higher than UGAs?

Link: SEC Standings Calculator

I posted this last week. You can pick the results of each game and it will calculate the standings for you.

But here is the Answer:
A&M & Georgia both played Texas, Florida, Auburn & Miss State
LSU 7-1 vs Alabama 5-3
Arkansas 3-5 vs Ole Miss 5-3
Missouri 5-3 vs Tennessee 6-2
South Carolina 4-4 vs Kentucky 1-7

13 L vs 15 L

Basically the lower tier games would come into play. Now some of those games can change, and in some extreme cases, Texas can jump to #1 if Vanderbilt wins some extra games.

If LSU gets the top seed, Georgia would have the advantage over Texas A&M with Texas as the common opponent.

Likewise, Tennessee will lose most tiebreakers because of their loss to Arkansas, because in a 7-1 scenario, LSU, Texas & Texas A&M would have all beaten Arkansas, which is also true if there are only 2-3 teams tied.. but as mentioned, an 11-1 Tennessee would be in the playoffs despite not making the SEC CG, and that's a pretty good draw.
This post was edited on 10/30/24 at 3:26 pm
Posted by LSUTigresFan
SE Louisiana to Austin (Texas Ex)
Member since Mar 2013
2723 posts
Posted on 10/30/24 at 3:15 pm to
A bunch of crazy scenarios can happen. It definitely needs to be 9 games going forward, but eventually we all know they will expand the playoffs to 14-16 teams in 2026. So, I wonder if the SEC will get rid of a CCG when that happens.
This post was edited on 10/30/24 at 3:16 pm
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