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re: This thing is getting scary
Posted on 3/19/20 at 4:46 pm to NoMansLand
Posted on 3/19/20 at 4:46 pm to NoMansLand
quote:
What bothers me is that Hawaii has only had 16 cases as of 3/19 and is a very popular destination for Japanese and a bit less so Chinese tourists.
The virus struggles in heat, sunlight, and humidity
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Posted on 3/19/20 at 5:11 pm to Weagle25
Climate has indicated little about the spread of this particular virus. Malaysia has 900+ cases. Population density is a bit bigger factor but not exact.
At first they also said elderly were significantly more at risk and now many 40 & younger are getting it. Roll the dice if you choose.
At first they also said elderly were significantly more at risk and now many 40 & younger are getting it. Roll the dice if you choose.
Posted on 3/19/20 at 5:21 pm to BHMKyle
I'm more scared of a recession and the possibility of a child molester president with dementia.
Posted on 3/19/20 at 5:36 pm to NoMansLand
quote:
Climate has indicated little about the spread of this particular virus. Malaysia has 900+ cases. Population density is a bit bigger factor but not exact.
Multiple studies and Doctors that have studied corona for years say it struggles in sunlight, humidity and heat.
quote:
At first they also said elderly were significantly more at risk and now many 40 & younger are getting it.
Nothing about that has changed. Young people were always vulnerable to catching it. Elderly are at risk of dying. That’s what’s always been said about it.
It’s just more of a hot topic right now to talk about the 20-40 years old going to the hospital. That’s the only difference you’re seeing
Posted on 3/19/20 at 5:38 pm to Hitchslap
quote:
possibility of a child molester president with dementia.
The only way that happens is if Michelle Obama is the VP.
Posted on 3/19/20 at 6:04 pm to Weagle25
quote:
Multiple studies and Doctors that have studied corona for years say it struggles in sunlight, humidity and heat.
Myth. The virus thrives in the human body, which is 98.6°F and 70% water. The reason common flu and cold viruses recede in Spring and Summer is because people get outside more frequently. Those viruses need for people to be in close proximity to spread.
quote:
Nothing about that has changed. Young people were always vulnerable to catching it. Elderly are at risk of dying. That’s what’s always been said about it.
This is a novel coronavirus, not the common cold coronavirus. We have never before seen it in humans. We can’t predict how it will adapt to its new hosts. It’s showing different effects in different populations but we don’t know why.
Posted on 3/19/20 at 6:12 pm to Kentucker
quote:
Myth. The virus thrives in the human body, which is 98.6°F and 70% water. The reason common flu and cold viruses recede in Spring and Summer is because people get outside more frequently. Those viruses need for people to be in close proximity to spread.
Not a myth. That’s not coming from me. That’s coming from people who study this.
LINK
LINK
LINK
Which is why i said “multiple studies show”
quote:
This is a novel coronavirus, not the common cold coronavirus. We have never before seen it in humans. We can’t predict how it will adapt to its new hosts. It’s showing different effects in different populations but we don’t know why.
I’m talking about the last two months and what this virus has shown in human hosts...
This post was edited on 3/19/20 at 6:26 pm
Posted on 3/19/20 at 7:14 pm to Weagle25
Good lord, more “evidence” from the East. None of those “studies” includes explanations of how the virus might be susceptible to heat and humidity external to the human body.
They merely conclude that transmission decreases in warm, humid environs. So they attribute the decrease to higher ambient temps and humidity. The fact that people tend to be outside more and have greater distances between each other just goes over their heads.
Also, the spread of the virus into warm, even hot, areas with high humidity directly refutes this insane claim.
Still erroneous conclusions. No health scientists are making firm predictions on how the virus will behave. It’s in a completely new environment (human bodies) and we just don’t know how it will mutate, only that it will.
A prime example is Italy. It’s very worrisome what’s happening there. A very high mortality rate and the increased susceptibility of young people indicates that something has changed for the worse.
They merely conclude that transmission decreases in warm, humid environs. So they attribute the decrease to higher ambient temps and humidity. The fact that people tend to be outside more and have greater distances between each other just goes over their heads.
Also, the spread of the virus into warm, even hot, areas with high humidity directly refutes this insane claim.
quote:
I’m talking about the last two months and what this virus has shown in human hosts
Still erroneous conclusions. No health scientists are making firm predictions on how the virus will behave. It’s in a completely new environment (human bodies) and we just don’t know how it will mutate, only that it will.
A prime example is Italy. It’s very worrisome what’s happening there. A very high mortality rate and the increased susceptibility of young people indicates that something has changed for the worse.
Posted on 3/19/20 at 7:43 pm to Kentucker
I mean believe what you want. I’m not going to try to convince you of anything. But don’t sit here and tell me it’s a myth.
Researchers from Finland, Spain, Portugal
They concluded that based on subjecting the virus to those conditions in a controlled environment so there’s zero way you can blame those results on people going outside in warmer temperatures.
I didn’t say it completely goes away. The infection rate goes down so low that it eventually burns out. It doesn’t refute any claims made.
I don’t why I have to keep saying this but you’re talking about the future while I’m talking about past results. What I initially responded to claimed that the virus has mutated and become more dangerous to younger people when the PAST results haven’t shown that. The infection rate has always been there for people over 20. If you bring up what it could possibly turn into again, I’m done with this conversation because it has nothing to do with what I’ve said. These aren’t conclusions. They’re fact based on statistics...
The increased mortality rate is because Italy is the second oldest country in the world only behind Japan.
I don’t know about an increased susceptibility to young people in Italy so won’t address it.
quote:
We can’t simulate summer conditions in countries currently in the grip of winter, but we can do something almost as good — look at what’s happening in places closer to the equator where the climate is milder. There’s been suggestive evidence on this front for some time. Iran, which accounts for about 90% of coronavirus cases in the Middle East, is unique in the region for mostly sitting on a plateau where winter conditions resemble those of more northerly countries. At the same time, some Southeast Asian nations with close business and tourism links to China have seen surprisingly few cases, even if you assume their less developed public health systems are missing infections. Thailand, Indonesia and the Philippines have each seen fewer cases than Estonia, Slovenia or Iceland, despite a combined population more than 100 times as large.
Researchers from Finland, Spain, Portugal
quote:
A study uploaded to medical pre-print server MedRxiv Monday plots recorded cases against climate conditions to suggest that there is indeed a significant correlation between outbreaks and the weather. In extreme cold and very hot and wet conditions the virus is “largely absent,” the researchers from Spain, Portugal and Finland wrote, meaning that people in tropical and polar climates are unlikely to see local transmission of cases.
quote:
They merely conclude that transmission decreases in warm, humid environs. So they attribute the decrease to higher ambient temps and humidity. The fact that people tend to be outside more and have greater distances between each other just goes over their heads.
They concluded that based on subjecting the virus to those conditions in a controlled environment so there’s zero way you can blame those results on people going outside in warmer temperatures.
quote:
Also, the spread of the virus into warm, even hot, areas with high humidity directly refutes this insane claim.
I didn’t say it completely goes away. The infection rate goes down so low that it eventually burns out. It doesn’t refute any claims made.
quote:
Still erroneous conclusions. No health scientists are making firm predictions on how the virus will behave. It’s in a completely new environment (human bodies) and we just don’t know how it will mutate, only that it will.
I don’t why I have to keep saying this but you’re talking about the future while I’m talking about past results. What I initially responded to claimed that the virus has mutated and become more dangerous to younger people when the PAST results haven’t shown that. The infection rate has always been there for people over 20. If you bring up what it could possibly turn into again, I’m done with this conversation because it has nothing to do with what I’ve said. These aren’t conclusions. They’re fact based on statistics...
quote:
A prime example is Italy. It’s very worrisome what’s happening there. A very high mortality rate and the increased susceptibility of young people indicates that something has changed for the worse.
The increased mortality rate is because Italy is the second oldest country in the world only behind Japan.
I don’t know about an increased susceptibility to young people in Italy so won’t address it.
Posted on 3/19/20 at 9:27 pm to Weagle25
Well, I won’t discuss it anymore with you. You don’t seem to use logic as a tool. None of the studies state how ambient temperatures and high humidity physically affect the virus, only that they do.
It’s a false premise and is not supported by any serious research. If you can’t see that aridity is the natural enemy of any virus that is spread via aerosol droplets, such as any respiratory virus, then you’re not going to bother with thinking through the other problems of the hypothesis that you rigidly support.
At least we had a civil discussion. Kudos.
It’s a false premise and is not supported by any serious research. If you can’t see that aridity is the natural enemy of any virus that is spread via aerosol droplets, such as any respiratory virus, then you’re not going to bother with thinking through the other problems of the hypothesis that you rigidly support.
At least we had a civil discussion. Kudos.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 9:43 am to BHMKyle
Just to give everyone an idea of how fast this thing is spreading, here are the total daily deaths/day for Western Europe (UK, Ireland, France, Spain, Portugal, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany, Italy, Switzerland, and Austria)
COVID-19 Deaths per Day in Western Europe for the past 2 weeks:
Sat, 3/7: 45
Sun, 3/8: 147
Mon, 3/9: 126
Tue, 3/10: 179
Wed, 3/11: 236
Thu, 3/12: 245
Fri, 3/13: 327
Sat, 3/14: 266
Sun, 3/15: 530
Mon, 3/16: 453
Tue, 3/17: 622
Wed, 3/18: 729
Thu, 3/19: 822
Fri, 3/20: Info will be released later today
**So far today, Spain is at 210 deaths, up from 193 yesterday... Netherlands is at 30 deaths today, up from 18 yesterday. Most of the others haven't released any numbers
The problem is that Italy is now nearly 4 weeks into their crisis and the number of cases per day and the number of fatalities per day continues to increase most every day. Most of those other countries above are 2-3 weeks behind Italy, so while the numbers of cases and fatalities are also increasing exponentially, we're likely not even close to the types of numbers we'll see in a couple of weeks.
Hopefully the self-isolation measures will help other countries not see the same level of crisis that Italy is experiencing, but I can tell you that most of the above countries are actually tracking worse than Italy at this point.
If things continue, its very possible we could start seeing 2,000 to 3,000 fatalities per day in Western Europe within 2 weeks... That's every single day.
The USA is also in the early stages of the cycle, but things aren't exactly rosy here:
Daily Deaths per day in the USA:
Sat, 3/14: 8
Sun, 3/15: 11
Mon, 3/16: 18
Tue, 3/17: 23
Wed, 3/18: 41
Thu, 3/19: 57
Fri, 3/20: Info to be released later
Again, most of these new cases in the USA (over 4,500 just yesterday) were likely contracted before any of these self-isolation measures went into place. There is also a lag in testing since we didn't have enough test kits available and are still trying to catch up. Hopefully if everyone follows the guidelines for the CDC, our numbers might peak next week. That would be the ideal situation.
But I say all this to warn people to please take this serious. Wash your hands. Don't go out of the house unless its necessary. Stay several feet away from anyone if you do have to go out. If everyone does this, we can move past this crisis within a month. But it totally hinges on the cooperation of the public.
COVID-19 Deaths per Day in Western Europe for the past 2 weeks:
Sat, 3/7: 45
Sun, 3/8: 147
Mon, 3/9: 126
Tue, 3/10: 179
Wed, 3/11: 236
Thu, 3/12: 245
Fri, 3/13: 327
Sat, 3/14: 266
Sun, 3/15: 530
Mon, 3/16: 453
Tue, 3/17: 622
Wed, 3/18: 729
Thu, 3/19: 822
Fri, 3/20: Info will be released later today
**So far today, Spain is at 210 deaths, up from 193 yesterday... Netherlands is at 30 deaths today, up from 18 yesterday. Most of the others haven't released any numbers
The problem is that Italy is now nearly 4 weeks into their crisis and the number of cases per day and the number of fatalities per day continues to increase most every day. Most of those other countries above are 2-3 weeks behind Italy, so while the numbers of cases and fatalities are also increasing exponentially, we're likely not even close to the types of numbers we'll see in a couple of weeks.
Hopefully the self-isolation measures will help other countries not see the same level of crisis that Italy is experiencing, but I can tell you that most of the above countries are actually tracking worse than Italy at this point.
If things continue, its very possible we could start seeing 2,000 to 3,000 fatalities per day in Western Europe within 2 weeks... That's every single day.
The USA is also in the early stages of the cycle, but things aren't exactly rosy here:
Daily Deaths per day in the USA:
Sat, 3/14: 8
Sun, 3/15: 11
Mon, 3/16: 18
Tue, 3/17: 23
Wed, 3/18: 41
Thu, 3/19: 57
Fri, 3/20: Info to be released later
Again, most of these new cases in the USA (over 4,500 just yesterday) were likely contracted before any of these self-isolation measures went into place. There is also a lag in testing since we didn't have enough test kits available and are still trying to catch up. Hopefully if everyone follows the guidelines for the CDC, our numbers might peak next week. That would be the ideal situation.
But I say all this to warn people to please take this serious. Wash your hands. Don't go out of the house unless its necessary. Stay several feet away from anyone if you do have to go out. If everyone does this, we can move past this crisis within a month. But it totally hinges on the cooperation of the public.
This post was edited on 3/20/20 at 11:44 am
Posted on 3/20/20 at 10:47 am to BHMKyle
quote:
Sat, 3/14: 266
Sun, 3/16: 530
Just quoted so you could edit
Great stuff
Posted on 3/20/20 at 10:51 am to BHMKyle
quote:
Hopefully if everyone follows the guidelines for the CDC, our numbers might peak next week. That would be the ideal situation.
Seems like even the reluctant ones that were holding out on all this are finally taking it serious for the most part. I know Gulf Shores and many other beaches closed yesterday. Most of the restaurants were fully open along the beach as well with all the visitors.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 11:40 am to rockiee
KY governor said this isnt going to be over in a few weeks. Right now we're looking at a few months and people need to fsce that new reality. He was extremely candid.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 11:47 am to Weagle25
I hope that’s true, but the regressions I’ve seen look like the R^2 is less than 0.2. I saw one study where they posted the regression and the data plots and I thought the guy was trolling.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 11:55 am to rockiee
Thank you. Fixed.
Here is something I find interesting. Here is the current fatality rate by Country, for all countries currently reporting 5,000 cases or more:
8.30%- Italy (41,035 cases)
7.29%- Iran (19,644 cases)
5.10%- Spain (20,412 cases)
3.38%- France (10,995 cases)
1.36%- USA (16,162 cases)
1.09%- South Korea (8.652 cases)
1.04%- Switzerland (4,906 cases)
0.28%- Germany (18,756 cases)
**I included Switzerland because they are close enough to the 5,000 case threshold (94 short)
**I excluded China because their numbers are bogus... however they report a 4.01% total fatality rate
Again I'm baffled by the disparity between Italy and Germany. Most of the cases in Italy are in the north, and there's just not much difference between their culture in Northern Italy and the cultures of Switzerland (1.0%) and Germany (0.28%). Austria only has 2,500 reported cases but their fatality rate is currently also very low at 0.24%. It's absolutely baffling.
Towns in the Italian Alps have been absolutely devastated. The Lombardi region which shares a border with Switzerland and Austria accounts for half of Italy's fatalities. So why is it so bad there, but on the other side of the mountain, not nearly as deadly in Switzerland and Austria?
Here is something I find interesting. Here is the current fatality rate by Country, for all countries currently reporting 5,000 cases or more:
8.30%- Italy (41,035 cases)
7.29%- Iran (19,644 cases)
5.10%- Spain (20,412 cases)
3.38%- France (10,995 cases)
1.36%- USA (16,162 cases)
1.09%- South Korea (8.652 cases)
1.04%- Switzerland (4,906 cases)
0.28%- Germany (18,756 cases)
**I included Switzerland because they are close enough to the 5,000 case threshold (94 short)
**I excluded China because their numbers are bogus... however they report a 4.01% total fatality rate
Again I'm baffled by the disparity between Italy and Germany. Most of the cases in Italy are in the north, and there's just not much difference between their culture in Northern Italy and the cultures of Switzerland (1.0%) and Germany (0.28%). Austria only has 2,500 reported cases but their fatality rate is currently also very low at 0.24%. It's absolutely baffling.
Towns in the Italian Alps have been absolutely devastated. The Lombardi region which shares a border with Switzerland and Austria accounts for half of Italy's fatalities. So why is it so bad there, but on the other side of the mountain, not nearly as deadly in Switzerland and Austria?
Posted on 3/20/20 at 12:15 pm to BHMKyle
Germany has an immensely better healthcare system with more supplies than Italy. Italy has the 2nd oldest population in the world.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 12:18 pm to BHMKyle
Holy Moly. Italy just released their numbers for today, and they continue to be mind-boggling.
5,986 new cases just for today.... 12% increase over yesterday's new case count.
627 new fatalities.... 47% more than yesterday.
The fatality rate in Italy is now sitting at 8.57% and rising every day. There have been 4,032 total fatalities in Italy. All of those are in just a 29-day span. To put it in perspective, thats 25% more people killed than died on 9/11. And its getting worse by the day.
Remember: Spain, France, the UK, and the Netherlands are 2 weeks behind Italy, but are currently tracking worse off than Italy was at this stage in their crisis.
5,986 new cases just for today.... 12% increase over yesterday's new case count.
627 new fatalities.... 47% more than yesterday.
The fatality rate in Italy is now sitting at 8.57% and rising every day. There have been 4,032 total fatalities in Italy. All of those are in just a 29-day span. To put it in perspective, thats 25% more people killed than died on 9/11. And its getting worse by the day.
Remember: Spain, France, the UK, and the Netherlands are 2 weeks behind Italy, but are currently tracking worse off than Italy was at this stage in their crisis.
This post was edited on 3/20/20 at 12:38 pm
Posted on 3/20/20 at 12:23 pm to BHMKyle
I’m still not scared.....
Posted on 3/20/20 at 12:33 pm to Possumslayer
12:33 still not scared, living normally.... except I got two free weeks of vacation
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