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re: SEC Metro Growth Rates

Posted on 4/24/19 at 3:01 pm to
Posted by Numberwang
Bike City, USA
Member since Feb 2012
13163 posts
Posted on 4/24/19 at 3:01 pm to
quote:


I think I included Louisville?


NO YOU DID NOT SIR.
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
102699 posts
Posted on 4/24/19 at 3:02 pm to
LASH ME SIR I DESERVE IT

Ah I know why, it wasn't in the Top 10 of my thrown together population of metros. I had it on overall Excel sheet.
This post was edited on 4/24/19 at 3:03 pm
Posted by Numberwang
Bike City, USA
Member since Feb 2012
13163 posts
Posted on 4/24/19 at 3:03 pm to
quote:

I had it on overall Excel sheet


Ah. Glad I could help.

Poor ole Little Rock is bigger than Lexington.



If I wasn't a stat nerd, I never would have noticed. Alas, it stuck out to me.
This post was edited on 4/24/19 at 3:04 pm
Posted by weadjust
Member since Aug 2012
15072 posts
Posted on 4/24/19 at 3:05 pm to
quote:

Starkville actually lost population... which is actually really difficult for a major college town to do.


The University and most of the population growth isn't inside the Starkville City Limits. The last time Starkville annexed any property was 1998. Starkville is trying to annex property to the east but MSU declined being part of the annexed area proposed. So MSU is cock blocking Starkville from growing
Posted by EKG
Houston, TX
Member since Jun 2010
43951 posts
Posted on 4/24/19 at 3:07 pm to
quote:

That's wild

It pretty much boils down to one reason.
Compare California and Texas (image below).
I won’t make this political, beyond saying there’s a reason for the discrepancy.

Posted by BHMKyle
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
5076 posts
Posted on 4/24/19 at 3:08 pm to
quote:

Except it's not...the whole point of being a "college town" requires your college students to leave said college town upon graduation.



Of all the 31 Power 5 college towns with populations under 500,000 people, Starkville had the worst growth rate in the entire country between 2017-2018. Only Starkville and Champaigne-Urbana, IL lost people.

**Other interesting note: Starkville is now officially the smallest Power 5 college town in the entire country.

Of the 63 Power 5 College Towns, here are the 10 smallest:

54. State College, PA- 162,805
55. Morgantown, WV- 140,259
56. Lawrence, KS- 121,436
57. Ames, IA- 98,105
58. Manhattan, KS- 97,980
59. Corvallis, OR- 92,101
60. Stillwater, OK- 82,040
61. Oxford, MS- 54,793
62. Pullman, WA- 49,791
63. Starkville, MS- 49,599

**Pullman passed Starkville in 2018.
Posted by Drewbie
tFlagship
Member since Jun 2012
57595 posts
Posted on 4/24/19 at 3:10 pm to
quote:

I won’t make this political
I'd rather not as well, but the potential impact on Texas voting in the future definitely crossed my mind. It'll be interesting to keep an eye on.
Posted by BHMKyle
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
5076 posts
Posted on 4/24/19 at 3:11 pm to
quote:

Starkville is still bigger than Oxford and more people live within 20 miles of Starkville than they they do Oxford. You're info is incorrect.



Not according to the US Government. The census bureau is who comes up with metroplitan/micropolitan statistical area definitions..... It's based on commuting patterns.
Posted by Numberwang
Bike City, USA
Member since Feb 2012
13163 posts
Posted on 4/24/19 at 3:11 pm to
quote:

The University and most of the population growth isn't inside the Starkville City Limits.


The estimates include the entire county for both Starkville and Oxford.

City-proper estimates are released in May.
Posted by Numberwang
Bike City, USA
Member since Feb 2012
13163 posts
Posted on 4/24/19 at 3:12 pm to
quote:


Not according to the US Government. The census bureau is who comes up with metroplitan/micropolitan statistical area definitions..... It's based on commuting patterns.


Correct. In the similar thread I posted in the SEC-OT, another poster pointed out the number of counties looped into each defined metro area.

Here I found it: LINK /
This post was edited on 4/24/19 at 3:13 pm
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
102699 posts
Posted on 4/24/19 at 3:12 pm to
quote:

I won’t make this political, beyond saying there’s a reason for the discrepancy.


Yep - we have similar in Georgia (specifically Atlanta and the coast), though it is more from the Rust Belt and Northeast.
Posted by BHMKyle
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
5076 posts
Posted on 4/24/19 at 3:14 pm to
quote:

Oxford has a population of 23,639. 1% of that is 236 people. Congrats on the booming growth


Metro Oxford actually grew by 556 people in 2018.... a small city for sure. Of course it could be worse. It could be a city of over 800K like Baton Rouge and only grow by 128 people in 2018.
Posted by Numberwang
Bike City, USA
Member since Feb 2012
13163 posts
Posted on 4/24/19 at 3:16 pm to
quote:

**Other interesting note: Starkville is now officially the smallest Power 5 college town in the entire country.

Of the 63 Power 5 College Towns, here are the 10 smallest:


I retract my earlier statement. OP is definitely a bigger demographics statistics nerd than me. Barely....
Posted by piggilicious
Member since Jan 2011
37295 posts
Posted on 4/24/19 at 3:17 pm to
quote:

Sorry, I've only visited the craphole that is Central Arkansas.


Central Arkansas is great too- not as lovely as NWA but far lovelier than many places east and south of us- including many sections of bama for damn sure.
Posted by thatguy45
Your alter's mom's basement
Member since Sep 2017
18878 posts
Posted on 4/24/19 at 3:17 pm to
quote:

it is more from the Rust Belt and Northeast.

Yeah, MW and NE have been having close to if not full net negative migration rates for several years. When the jobs leave and crime goes up that's what happens.
Its why Flint, Gary, Etc. have lost so much population.
This post was edited on 4/24/19 at 3:19 pm
Posted by EKG
Houston, TX
Member since Jun 2010
43951 posts
Posted on 4/24/19 at 3:19 pm to
Yep.
Georgia very much faces a similar trend as Texas.
It’s a huge issue for our state, as I assume it is for yours.

I will say this: I’ve met several CA—>TX transplants over the past few years, and to a (wo)man, each of them knew exactly what they were “getting into” when they relocated, in terms of ideology.

In my non-scientific research (ha), our new neighbors seem to be fleeing California dogma and are quite pleased with their new tribe.
Posted by BHMKyle
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
5076 posts
Posted on 4/24/19 at 3:19 pm to
quote:

If growth trends held over the next 40 years (they won't, probably, but always an interesting exercise).....

National Top 10 (40 yr growth%)
1. New York (21,594,420) (10.2%)
2. Los Angeles (15,266,658) (18.9%)
3. Dallas (14,746,921) (117.9%)
4. Houston (13,408,102) (125.4%)
5. Chicago (9,610,881) (1.5%)
6. Atlanta (9,431,434) (77.9%)
7. Miami (9,416,535) (68.6%)

9. Phoenix (8,655,951) (105.9%)
11. San Fransisco (6,646,557) (53.0%)
12. Philadelphia (6,624,973) (11.0%)
13. Boston (6,334,792) (38.7%)


Texas is booming. The Texas Triangle is on pace to be one of the world's most influential corridors.

Meanwhile Chicago's status as a Top 3 city (which has been the case for over a century) is about to end. They'll drop to #4 by 2030... #5 a few years later... and a generation from now could drop below Atlanta and Phoenix.
Posted by Numberwang
Bike City, USA
Member since Feb 2012
13163 posts
Posted on 4/24/19 at 3:19 pm to
quote:

it is more from the Rust Belt and Northeast.


Build another wall.
Posted by Numberwang
Bike City, USA
Member since Feb 2012
13163 posts
Posted on 4/24/19 at 3:21 pm to
Those numbers muddy the waters a bit by incorporating numbers for Combined Statistical Areas. But your post is still true. DFW and Houston metro areas will both surpass Chicago given current trends.
Posted by N97883
New Dehli Forsyth GA
Member since Nov 2013
8062 posts
Posted on 4/24/19 at 3:21 pm to
quote:

What, exactly, is this near useless statistic supposed to prove?



It shows which homers will have to pay the most to move back and retire in their beloved alma mater
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