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What's a Good/Bad/Average/Over achieving first season for Harsin. All the possibilities.
Posted on 8/29/21 at 11:38 am
Posted on 8/29/21 at 11:38 am
So here's the schedule
Akron
Alabama State
@ Penn State
Georgia State
@LSU
Georgia
BYE
@Arkansas
Ole Miss
@A&M
Mississippi State
@South Carolina
Alabama
If we win 8 games with one being over PSU,UGA,BAMA or LSU. I think we would all consider that a good season.
If we're 7-5 with some close losses that could've went either way I guess that'd be average
Anything where we don't make a bowl is a bad season.
And a 9/10 win season is Overachieving
Akron
Alabama State
@ Penn State
Georgia State
@LSU
Georgia
BYE
@Arkansas
Ole Miss
@A&M
Mississippi State
@South Carolina
Alabama
If we win 8 games with one being over PSU,UGA,BAMA or LSU. I think we would all consider that a good season.
If we're 7-5 with some close losses that could've went either way I guess that'd be average
Anything where we don't make a bowl is a bad season.
And a 9/10 win season is Overachieving
This post was edited on 8/29/21 at 6:12 pm
12
Posted on 8/29/21 at 11:44 am to Scoper
8 wins is average, less is bad, more is good
Posted on 8/29/21 at 11:48 am to Scoper
Gus would have gone 7-5 with that schedule.
Anybody more than 7 is good
Anything less than 7 is bad
7 wins is meh
Anybody more than 7 is good
Anything less than 7 is bad
7 wins is meh
Posted on 8/29/21 at 11:49 am to ChexMix
quote:
8 wins is average, less is bad, more is good
In a normal year yes but this is a first year coach who has a schedule containing
@A&M
@penn state
@lsu
UGA
Alabama
Posted on 8/29/21 at 11:56 am to Scoper
quote:this is a normal year.
In a normal year yes but this is a first year coach who has a schedule containing
Posted on 8/29/21 at 12:10 pm to Scoper
Missing a bowl is bad/underachieving with this roster.
9 wins is overachieving.
I think anything in-between is within the realm of reasonable expectations, with 8-4 being "good".
Also, can we win a bowl game for a change?
9 wins is overachieving.
I think anything in-between is within the realm of reasonable expectations, with 8-4 being "good".
Also, can we win a bowl game for a change?
Posted on 8/29/21 at 12:13 pm to Scoper
I just want to look like we prepare for each game, and our guys progress.
Posted on 8/29/21 at 12:40 pm to Scoper
Depends how we look. What happens in the games
Can’t just put a number on it and say that’s it
Can’t just put a number on it and say that’s it
Posted on 8/29/21 at 1:21 pm to Weagle25
I think Harsin ought to be able to complete a season - even his first season - reasonably close to your average Gus. It's a new staff and system, sure, but he didn't inherit a complete shitshow.
I want to see 7-5, with us looking competent, well-prepared, showing consistent signs of progress, and looking reasonably competitive in our losses. That, to me, would be "meeting expectations".
6-6 would be a bit of a disappointment, given some of the talent on this team (Bigsby, the secondary, and the linebackers, particularly). But it depends on how we look. Was that 6th loss due to a questionable call, or did we get blown out 55-0?
Winning the bowl would be a very nice bonus. A lot of football fans might think that winning a "meaningless bowl game" after a 6 to 8 win season is insignificant -- but with our bowl history over the last several years, that one thing would be a real sign of progress.
I want to see 7-5, with us looking competent, well-prepared, showing consistent signs of progress, and looking reasonably competitive in our losses. That, to me, would be "meeting expectations".
6-6 would be a bit of a disappointment, given some of the talent on this team (Bigsby, the secondary, and the linebackers, particularly). But it depends on how we look. Was that 6th loss due to a questionable call, or did we get blown out 55-0?
Winning the bowl would be a very nice bonus. A lot of football fans might think that winning a "meaningless bowl game" after a 6 to 8 win season is insignificant -- but with our bowl history over the last several years, that one thing would be a real sign of progress.
Posted on 8/29/21 at 1:51 pm to CreweBilt
This team has talent so 9 or more is a good to great season 8 win win is average at best. Below 8 we have the wrong coach. That being said I WILL support him 100% because he is Auburn coach so that makes him my coach.
Posted on 8/29/21 at 2:29 pm to auburn22
This team has talent.. everywhere except the OL
Posted on 8/29/21 at 2:34 pm to AUCE05
quote:
I just want to look like we prepare for each game, and our guys progress.
and if something isn't working on O, we can make adjustments.
There will be growing pains with a new O and D philosophy. Both will be quite different than what we have been running. I want to see improvement from week to week. I want to see a well coached/disciplined team. If we get those two things, we will have a successful season, IMO.
This post was edited on 8/29/21 at 2:34 pm
Posted on 8/29/21 at 2:55 pm to Scoper
Great 10+
Good 8+
Average 7
Good 8+
Average 7
Posted on 8/29/21 at 3:07 pm to AUCE05
quote:
I just want to look like we prepare for each game, and our guys progress.
This right here. I want our players and coaches making new stupid mistakes each week and not the same ones over and over and over.
Posted on 8/29/21 at 3:15 pm to auburnnyc94
quote:thats just not the case. Our OL arent gangbusters, but they are at least middle of the pack in the SEC based on last years results. This year they may be even better without Gus there to frick it up
this team has talent.. everywhere except the OL
Posted on 8/29/21 at 4:02 pm to Scoper
As I've said before, this is a "cultural change" type of transition.
For point of reference, here's AU's schedule for two previous "cultural changes". First, 1981, Dye's first year:
Now, the 1999 AU schedule, as Tubs struggled to clean up Bowden's mess:
I expect this year to be something along these lines as Harsin establishes an identity. The one advantage we have is that we are far more physically talented relative to our opponents than those '81 and '99 teams were. Unfortunately, we face a tougher schedule than either of those years.
tl;dr answer:
Good - 8 wins
Average - 6-7 wins
Bad - 5 or fewer wins
Overacheving - 9 or more wins
For point of reference, here's AU's schedule for two previous "cultural changes". First, 1981, Dye's first year:
quote:We beat a terrible TCU team in the opener, then fell to an equally bad Wake squad in game 2. A lot of players got R-U-N-N-O-F-T in the wake of that disaster, and the following week we took a pretty good Johnny Majors-coached Vol team to the limit in Neyland, then traveled to Nebraska and fought a vastly more talented Husker team to the wire before faltering late. We got better in practically every game by the end of the year, held our own against defending NC UGa (lol), even took the lead in the 4th qtr in the IB when Bryant was going for Stagg's record.
9/5 vs. Texas Christian (2-7-2) W 24 16
9/19 vs. Wake Forest (4-7) L 21 24
9/26 @ *Tennessee (8-4) L 7 10
10/3 @ Nebraska (9-3) L 3 17
10/10 vs. *Louisiana State (3-7-1) W 19 7
10/17 @ Georgia Tech (1-10) W 31 7
10/24 vs. *Mississippi State (8-4) L 17 21
10/31 vs. *Florida (7-5) W 14 12
11/7 vs. North Texas (2-9) W 20 0
11/14 @ *Georgia (10-2) L 13 24
11/28 vs. *Alabama (9-2-1) L 17 28
Now, the 1999 AU schedule, as Tubs struggled to clean up Bowden's mess:
quote:Sidestepped a disaster in the Appy State "Buyout Bowl" when we came from behind late, then waxed Idaho and LSU (the Cigar Game). Were leading Ole Miss in a game wherein they had vowed revenge for 'stealing their coach' until Leard got hurt, then floundered horribly behind our 2nd string QB Klein and a bunch of less-than-SEC caliber RBs (Don Timmons, TYFYS). Somehow we managed to play defense well enough to beat Jackie Sherrill's best MSU team, but collapsed in the end, blowing a 13-point lead in the final 2:30. When Leard came back we rallied and blew out UGa between the hedges and again took a lead into the 4th in the IB before DuBose's eventual SEC Champs wore us down.
9/4 vs. Appalachian State (non-IA) W 22 15
9/11 vs. Idaho (7-4) W 30 23
9/18 @ *Louisiana State (3-8) W 41 7
9/25 vs. *Mississippi (8-4) L 17 24
10/2 @ *Tennessee (9-3) L 0 24
10/9 vs. *Mississippi State (10-2) L 16 18
10/16 vs. *Florida (9-4) L 14 32
10/30 @ *Arkansas (8-4) L 10 34
11/6 vs. Central Florida (4-7) W 28 10
11/13 @ *Georgia (8-4) W 38 21
11/20 vs. *Alabama (10-3) L 17 28
I expect this year to be something along these lines as Harsin establishes an identity. The one advantage we have is that we are far more physically talented relative to our opponents than those '81 and '99 teams were. Unfortunately, we face a tougher schedule than either of those years.
tl;dr answer:
Good - 8 wins
Average - 6-7 wins
Bad - 5 or fewer wins
Overacheving - 9 or more wins
Posted on 8/29/21 at 4:03 pm to Scoper
Here is my overall take on the season. I think we have a lot of talent, especially on defense, and an All-American level running back. Gus did not leave this team in disarray or the cupboard bare. There will be some difficulties early on installing completely new systems on both sides, but our schedule should allow us a full month, and several easier games to sort that out.
With that said, I think there are 6 games on the schedule we should win, so a 6-6 season would be a disappointment as I think that is our floor.
The Alabama and UGA games are the only two games that I think we are clearly outmatched. I really hope we are able to better prepared, less predictable, and a much tougher out for them this year than we have been, but I’m willing to put those two in the most likely loss column.
That leaves 4 games that I think will shape our season: @Penn State, @LSU, Ole Miss, and @ Texas A&M. I think all of those are winnable in some capacity, but 3 of those 4 games are in the road as well. Go 2-2 in those games and finish 8-4 and I think think that is a good first season given the schedule. Obviously going 1-3 or 3-1 would lead to average or great seasons imo.
A few other thoughts: The o-line last year was Council most of the season, and Troxell was coming off an injury the prior year. They are probably two of the more talented guys on the line and also two of the better pass blockers. So I do think there is a lot of room for improvement if we can stay healthy.
And finally if you are looking for a way that this team could blow through expectations this year, it would be Nix taking a huge leap forward and playing like the 5 star he once was. If Bobo and Harsin can somehow unlock that through the first month of the season it could be a classic unexpected, crazy, fun year for Auburn football.
With that said, I think there are 6 games on the schedule we should win, so a 6-6 season would be a disappointment as I think that is our floor.
The Alabama and UGA games are the only two games that I think we are clearly outmatched. I really hope we are able to better prepared, less predictable, and a much tougher out for them this year than we have been, but I’m willing to put those two in the most likely loss column.
That leaves 4 games that I think will shape our season: @Penn State, @LSU, Ole Miss, and @ Texas A&M. I think all of those are winnable in some capacity, but 3 of those 4 games are in the road as well. Go 2-2 in those games and finish 8-4 and I think think that is a good first season given the schedule. Obviously going 1-3 or 3-1 would lead to average or great seasons imo.
A few other thoughts: The o-line last year was Council most of the season, and Troxell was coming off an injury the prior year. They are probably two of the more talented guys on the line and also two of the better pass blockers. So I do think there is a lot of room for improvement if we can stay healthy.
And finally if you are looking for a way that this team could blow through expectations this year, it would be Nix taking a huge leap forward and playing like the 5 star he once was. If Bobo and Harsin can somehow unlock that through the first month of the season it could be a classic unexpected, crazy, fun year for Auburn football.
Posted on 8/29/21 at 4:13 pm to ATLtiger12
I don’t care about the win loss numbers during the coach’s first year. There are other things I’m looking forward to seeing though to help judge what we got as HC.
Posted on 8/29/21 at 4:40 pm to jangalang
quote:that's just not the case. You care, you're just are more willing to accept a poor season
I don’t care about the win loss numbers during the coach’s first year.
Honestly, i dont see how people can look at our roster and say, five losses is acceptable with the level of talent we have.
Posted on 8/29/21 at 4:45 pm to ChexMix
I feel like we lost a lot of starters via attrition and I know there is a learning curve with the new playbooks, and new regime. 7-5 is something I’d expect from a first year head coach,
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