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Torvik's 2021-2022 College Basketball Preseason Projections
Posted on 5/14/21 at 8:20 am
Posted on 5/14/21 at 8:20 am
The biggest outlier here is LSU, and Torvik has not added in Efton Reid yet. I'll update when he does. You can click on a team to see the general projections by player.
Torvik 2021-2022 CB Projections
Overall (Off, Def)
1. Gonzaga (1, 4)
2. Michigan (3, 3)
3. UCLA (2, 21)
4. Kansas (15, 2)
5. Memphis (27, 1)
6. ALABAMA (10, 11)
7. Duke (7, 28)
8. TENNESSEE (19, 6)
9. Baylor (9, 29)
10. Purdue (16, 14)
14. Kentucky (11, 41)
21. Florida (29, 30)
22. Arkansas (47, 18)
25. Auburn (34, 46)
50. LSU (17, 123)
71. Ole Miss (149, 35)
82. Mississippi St (140, 55)
87. Vanderbilt (85, 93)
109. South Carolina (163, 80)
133. Missouri (206, 95)
147. Texas A&M (220, 108)
241. Georgia (232, 234)
Returning Possession Minutes from 2020-2021 (returning % of minutes of possession)
1. Auburn (67.0%)
2. Vanderbilt (56.7%)
3. Alabama (56.6%)
4. Tennessee (51.8%)
5. Ole Miss (49.0%)
6. Mississippi St (48.6%)
7. Florida (44.8%)
8. South Carolina (41.1%)
9. Arkansas (38.4%)
10. Texas A&M (29.2%)
11. Kentucky (25.4%)
12. Missouri (19.2%)
13. LSU (14.7%)
14. Georgia (4.5%)
Transfer "Points" (not entirely sure how this figure is put together but if you are low on returning minutes you'd want to be high here)
1. Arkansas (306)
2. Texas A&M (217)
3. LSU (209)
4. South Carolina (207)
5. Florida (203)
6. Auburn (193)
7. Missouri (173)
8. Georgia (137)
9. Kentucky (136)
10. Mississippi State (128)
11. Ole Miss (118)
12. Vanderbilt (112)
13. Alabama (111)
14. Tennessee (62)
This also assumes that all "can return" guys in the NBA draft do return (Primo, Shackelford, Thor, Pippen Jr, etc). That obviously won't happen, but it's impossible to guess on a case by case basis so it's probably the best way to go for now.
Torvik 2021-2022 CB Projections
Overall (Off, Def)
1. Gonzaga (1, 4)
2. Michigan (3, 3)
3. UCLA (2, 21)
4. Kansas (15, 2)
5. Memphis (27, 1)
6. ALABAMA (10, 11)
7. Duke (7, 28)
8. TENNESSEE (19, 6)
9. Baylor (9, 29)
10. Purdue (16, 14)
14. Kentucky (11, 41)
21. Florida (29, 30)
22. Arkansas (47, 18)
25. Auburn (34, 46)
50. LSU (17, 123)
71. Ole Miss (149, 35)
82. Mississippi St (140, 55)
87. Vanderbilt (85, 93)
109. South Carolina (163, 80)
133. Missouri (206, 95)
147. Texas A&M (220, 108)
241. Georgia (232, 234)
Returning Possession Minutes from 2020-2021 (returning % of minutes of possession)
1. Auburn (67.0%)
2. Vanderbilt (56.7%)
3. Alabama (56.6%)
4. Tennessee (51.8%)
5. Ole Miss (49.0%)
6. Mississippi St (48.6%)
7. Florida (44.8%)
8. South Carolina (41.1%)
9. Arkansas (38.4%)
10. Texas A&M (29.2%)
11. Kentucky (25.4%)
12. Missouri (19.2%)
13. LSU (14.7%)
14. Georgia (4.5%)
Transfer "Points" (not entirely sure how this figure is put together but if you are low on returning minutes you'd want to be high here)
1. Arkansas (306)
2. Texas A&M (217)
3. LSU (209)
4. South Carolina (207)
5. Florida (203)
6. Auburn (193)
7. Missouri (173)
8. Georgia (137)
9. Kentucky (136)
10. Mississippi State (128)
11. Ole Miss (118)
12. Vanderbilt (112)
13. Alabama (111)
14. Tennessee (62)
This also assumes that all "can return" guys in the NBA draft do return (Primo, Shackelford, Thor, Pippen Jr, etc). That obviously won't happen, but it's impossible to guess on a case by case basis so it's probably the best way to go for now.
This post was edited on 5/14/21 at 8:26 am
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Posted on 5/14/21 at 8:25 am to SummerOfGeorge
I'm excited for another mediocre year of Mike White bball.
Posted on 5/14/21 at 8:30 am to SM1010
Some interesting teams nationally to watch in terms of solid teams that bring back a lot
- Saint Mary's (WCC) returns their entire roster
- Northern Iowa (MVC) returns 98.7% of their possession minutes
- Belmont (OVC) returns 97.5% of their possession minutes
- Ohio (MAC) (NCAAT) returns 96.0% of their possession minutes
- Colorado State (MWC) returns 95.1% of their possession minutes
- Butler (BE) returns 93.1% of their possession minutes
- Drake (MVC) (NCAAT) returns 83.5% of their possession minutes
- Xavier (BE) returns 82.7% of their possession minutes
- Notre Dame (ACC) returns 81.8% of their possession minutes
- Saint Mary's (WCC) returns their entire roster
- Northern Iowa (MVC) returns 98.7% of their possession minutes
- Belmont (OVC) returns 97.5% of their possession minutes
- Ohio (MAC) (NCAAT) returns 96.0% of their possession minutes
- Colorado State (MWC) returns 95.1% of their possession minutes
- Butler (BE) returns 93.1% of their possession minutes
- Drake (MVC) (NCAAT) returns 83.5% of their possession minutes
- Xavier (BE) returns 82.7% of their possession minutes
- Notre Dame (ACC) returns 81.8% of their possession minutes
This post was edited on 5/14/21 at 8:32 am
Posted on 5/14/21 at 8:43 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
241. Georgia
Uh oh, TeddyWestside's worst fears are becoming realized.
quote:
I am not looking forward to the next preseason SEC basketball ratings that SOG posts based off returning production, added production, and recruiting rankings.
With KD Johnson entering the portal, I don't see how UGA could not be dead last.
Posted on 5/14/21 at 8:46 am to paperwasp
quote:
Uh oh, TeddyWestside's worst fears are becoming realized.
90. Georgia Tech
138. Georgia State
195. Mercer
211. Georgia Southern
241. Georgia
250. Kennesaw State
- Worst major conference team (next to last is Pitt at #212)
- 5th out of 6 D1 team in Georgia
Not great
This post was edited on 5/14/21 at 8:47 am
Posted on 5/14/21 at 8:48 am to SummerOfGeorge
That St. Bonaventure team should be good if those 5 juniors all return
That tall baw is probably testing the waters
That tall baw is probably testing the waters
Posted on 5/14/21 at 8:48 am to S
quote:
That St. Bonaventure team should be good if those 5 juniors all return
That tall baw is probably testing the waters
They are at #20
Return 86.4% of their minutes (as of today)
Posted on 5/14/21 at 8:51 am to SummerOfGeorge
We will be around #30, make the tourney and win one game. Rinse, repeat.
Posted on 5/14/21 at 8:53 am to S
He staying, and until they get a bench you cant take them too seriously. It showed against LSU. They legit play like 6 deep, and their 6th and 7th person cant score.
This post was edited on 5/14/21 at 8:54 am
Posted on 5/14/21 at 8:53 am to SummerOfGeorge
Why is Georgia so bad?
Posted on 5/14/21 at 8:56 am to starkvingrad
Their entire roster went into the portal and their incoming recruiting class isn't exactly the Fab 5.
Posted on 5/14/21 at 8:57 am to SummerOfGeorge
6 top 25 teams. Yeesh. 13-5/14-4 will probably win the conference. I hope we can get 7+ teams into the field next year.
This post was edited on 5/14/21 at 8:58 am
Posted on 5/14/21 at 8:58 am to SummerOfGeorge
The transfer market is going to ruin any computer predictions for this upcoming season 
Posted on 5/14/21 at 8:58 am to Robot Santa
Average Rating - Top 10 teams per conference (since BXII only has 10 teams)
1. Big Ten (86.19)
2. ACC (84.12)
3. SEC (83.36)
4. Pac 12 (79.95)
5. Big XII (78.77)
6. Big East (77.37)
1. Big Ten (86.19)
2. ACC (84.12)
3. SEC (83.36)
4. Pac 12 (79.95)
5. Big XII (78.77)
6. Big East (77.37)
Posted on 5/14/21 at 8:59 am to thunderbird1100
quote:
The transfer market is going to ruin any computer predictions for this upcoming season
Yea - it's pretty tough to figure out how the Player of the Year from the MAAC will translate into being the #3 option on a good ACC team.
They'll probably get better at translating it as it happens more, but still pretty difficult.
Posted on 5/14/21 at 9:02 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
1. Big Ten (86.19)
Shocker.
I wonder how many of the 11 teams they get into the field next year will make it past the first weekend. 2? Maybe 3?
Posted on 5/14/21 at 9:03 am to Robot Santa
quote:
Shocker.
I wonder how many of the 11 teams they get into the field next year will make it past the first weekend. 2? Maybe 3?
They've definitely figured out how to game the analytics.
Northwestern sitting at #40 right now
This post was edited on 5/14/21 at 9:04 am
Posted on 5/14/21 at 9:05 am to SummerOfGeorge
If you look at the Top 6 teams in each conference only
1. B10 (90.00)
2. SEC (88.64)
3. ACC (88.21)
4. B12 (85.94)
5. Big East (84.47)
6. Pac 12 (84.28)
1. B10 (90.00)
2. SEC (88.64)
3. ACC (88.21)
4. B12 (85.94)
5. Big East (84.47)
6. Pac 12 (84.28)
Posted on 5/14/21 at 9:07 am to SummerOfGeorge
I do not understand how though. These kind of things are based on objective statistical algorithms, not media/selection committee members who decide that the B1G is elite from top to bottom before the season starts every year and then never punishes their teams for losing games, which results in the whole fricking conference making the field because their records literally do not matter.
Posted on 5/14/21 at 9:10 am to Robot Santa
quote:
I do not understand how though. These kind of things are based on objective statistical algorithms, not media/selection committee members who decide that the B1G is elite from top to bottom before the season starts every year and then never punishes their teams for losing games, which results in the whole fricking conference making the field because their records literally do not matter.
It's like the Missouri Valley used to do with the RPI I guess
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