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re: Alabama Board Coronavirus Thread
Posted on 8/24/20 at 9:11 am to Robot Santa
Posted on 8/24/20 at 9:11 am to Robot Santa
Alabama 7-day case rate has ticked up a bit, but we just posted the lowest daily increase in cases since late June yesterday. State COVID hospitalizations are down 32% in the last two weeks, which is huge.
CFR update:
Age 0-17: ~9,908 cases, 3 deaths = 0.030% CFR
Age 18-24: ~15,292 cases, 4 deaths = 0.026% CFR
Age 25-49: ~43,950 cases, 88 deaths = 0.200% CFR
Age 50-64: ~22,437 cases, 336 deaths = 1.498% CFR
Age 65+: ~18,408 cases, 1,513 deaths = 8.219% CFR
One thing that stands out is the huge jump in the concentration of cases in the 18-49 group. Also, the CFRs have been dropping like a rock lately. I suspect we're picking up more cases than we were in months past due to additional testing. As always, keep in mind that the figures above are likely multiple times higher than the actual IFR due to the number of untested and/or asymptomatic cases.
CFR update:
Age 0-17: ~9,908 cases, 3 deaths = 0.030% CFR
Age 18-24: ~15,292 cases, 4 deaths = 0.026% CFR
Age 25-49: ~43,950 cases, 88 deaths = 0.200% CFR
Age 50-64: ~22,437 cases, 336 deaths = 1.498% CFR
Age 65+: ~18,408 cases, 1,513 deaths = 8.219% CFR
One thing that stands out is the huge jump in the concentration of cases in the 18-49 group. Also, the CFRs have been dropping like a rock lately. I suspect we're picking up more cases than we were in months past due to additional testing. As always, keep in mind that the figures above are likely multiple times higher than the actual IFR due to the number of untested and/or asymptomatic cases.
Posted on 8/24/20 at 9:27 am to TideCPA
quote:
One thing that stands out is the huge jump in the concentration of cases in the 18-49 group.
I'd wager the majority of them are in the 18-24 range. The numbers probably reflect the return of students to college campuses.
Posted on 8/24/20 at 9:41 am to TideCPA
quote:
CFR update:
Age 0-17: ~9,908 cases, 3 deaths = 0.030% CFR
Age 18-24: ~15,292 cases, 4 deaths = 0.026% CFR
Age 65+: ~18,408 cases, 1,513 deaths = 8.219% CFR
Have there been any studies that indicate common means of transmission among age groups?
It's interesting to me that there are about 25k cases in ages up to 24, and 18k in ages 65 and older.
Especially in consideration of the huge difference in CFR (0.03% vs. 8.2%), how is the oldest group continuing to contract this at a similar rate, assuming by this point most are retired and (presumably) remaining somewhat sheltered, isolated, etc.?
Posted on 8/24/20 at 9:45 am to TideSaint
quote:Editing this post for some bad numbers.
I'd wager the majority of them are in the 18-24 range. The numbers probably reflect the return of students to college campuses.
It appears each group has jumped 1.6x-1.7x from the cases a month ago, so I'm not sure that explains it. I'm guessing the 25-49 group has so many more cases due having a distribution of 25 years and comprising the majority of the workforce.
Also Alabama splitting out the 0-24 age group recently makes it impossible to compare the subgroups (0-17 and 18-24) historically unless someone has some recast data.
This post was edited on 8/24/20 at 10:02 am
Posted on 8/24/20 at 9:53 am to TideCPA
Bars and restaurant about to get shut down in Ttown by the City.
Posted on 8/24/20 at 9:57 am to IB4bama
quote:
Bars and restaurant about to get shut down in Ttown by the City
Speculation is that bars and bar services will be closed (table service still okay).
Posted on 8/24/20 at 10:15 am to paperwasp
quote:
how is the oldest group continuing to contract this at a similar rate, assuming by this point most are retired and (presumably) remaining somewhat sheltered, isolated, etc.?
Every covid patient I've answered in the last month has been over 60. I think it's a combination of things.
First, in my very humble opinion, is that they're just more likely to catch any kind of bug.
Second, they can't be isolated completely. One of the patients had not been off his property in 6 months. The only people that had been in his house were his wife, kids, and home health provider - all people he completely trusts but one of them gave it to him.
Third, there's a group of them who understand they're at the point in life where making vacation plans for next summer was an exercise in optimism even before covid came around. After months of being shut it, they've decided the risk of missing the chance to do something they love right now is greater than the risk of catching and dying from covid. My father falls into this category. He's in his late 70s, has diabetes, and has been fighting a years-long battle with skin and prostate cancer. He straight up says he knows if he goes out and catches it, he will likely die from it - but he also straight out says avoiding that risk isn't as important to him as worshiping in person so he goes to church (with a mask and distanced). I worry about him, but I understand and respect his point.
This post was edited on 8/24/20 at 11:40 am
Posted on 8/24/20 at 12:18 pm to TideSaint
I know it’s gonna happen everywhere but I’ve lost a lot of respect for my school. They have no intention of having actual classes for more than a week or 2
Posted on 8/24/20 at 1:01 pm to Glorious
Most educators I've talked to feel the same. No way they keep the teachers virus free. That's the bottleneck. Kids get it, send'em home, they go online. Teacher gets it, you're screwed. Few subs, the ones that are there probably don't have a certificate in the subject being taught, they are there simply to be a placeholder/babysitter. What do you do? My youngest chose to start the year today online so when they pull the plug on in-person, she's already in the routine and it's no change for her.
Posted on 8/24/20 at 2:11 pm to phil4bama
Subs are a very real problem for sure. Last year subs got $55 a day. My county is now offering $75, an adjacent one is offering $100, and they're still worried about having enough.
On the plus side, my county system is in week 3 and so far it's gone well. There has been a very small (<10) number of cases among students and staff.
On the plus side, my county system is in week 3 and so far it's gone well. There has been a very small (<10) number of cases among students and staff.
Posted on 8/24/20 at 3:23 pm to JustGetItRight
(no message)
This post was edited on 8/24/20 at 3:24 pm
Posted on 8/24/20 at 3:28 pm to JustGetItRight
I wish we were like that. In the district where I work the high school has almost 200 in quarantine after the first week.
Posted on 8/24/20 at 5:52 pm to RollTide33
quote:
the high school has almost 200
In quarantine or covid positive?
Many systems send home students that are close to kids that test positive. Here they're running parallel virtual and in-person. If a kid gets a close exposure, they switch to virtual for 2 weeks. It's a reasonable plan and thus far none of the kids that got 'virtualized' ended up with it.
Posted on 8/24/20 at 7:31 pm to TideSaint
It’s disgusting what this has turned into.
Posted on 8/25/20 at 6:33 am to Cobrasize
Posted on 8/25/20 at 9:40 am to Crimson Wraith
quote:
UA System Dashboard Tracker for virus.
UA has 531 of the 566. Uncool.
Posted on 8/25/20 at 10:02 am to Evolved Simian
And the administration is freaking out. Last night they announced they were kicking all the girls out of Mary Burke West by this weekend for more quarantine beds. Moving them to other dorms, not necessarily keeping roommates together. And here's $250 Bama cash for your trouble. Doesn't affect my kid but people are PISSED. Tomorrow is final withdrawal date without penalty and it sounds like kids are being pulled out in droves by parents.
They have shut down the Greek houses, dining halls are grab-n-go only. Online classes are mostly recorded sessions with little/no live interaction with the professors, many of whom aren't trying to be very accessible. It's turning into a real shitshow in Tuscaloosa because they seemingly had this fantasy scenario that they could keep 30,000 kids Covid free.
They have shut down the Greek houses, dining halls are grab-n-go only. Online classes are mostly recorded sessions with little/no live interaction with the professors, many of whom aren't trying to be very accessible. It's turning into a real shitshow in Tuscaloosa because they seemingly had this fantasy scenario that they could keep 30,000 kids Covid free.
This post was edited on 8/25/20 at 11:12 am
Posted on 8/25/20 at 10:06 am to phil4bama
This all seems fairly insane.
Posted on 8/25/20 at 10:11 am to Evolved Simian
quote:If they have 531 positives in Tuscaloosa there are probably 10x that number who actually currently have it. UA needs to stay the course and simply manage the outbreak on campus, because the student population will likely have almost zero serious complications from the virus, and because the last thing they need to be doing (for a number of reasons) is panicking, shutting down campus, and shipping off thousands of asymptomatic carriers to their parents and grandparents around the country.
UA has 531 of the 566. Uncool.
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