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FiveThirtyEight projects only one SEC team to make the CFB Playoff
Posted on 9/24/19 at 9:16 am
Posted on 9/24/19 at 9:16 am
Odds to make CFB Playoff
Clemson- 77%
Alabama- 45%
Ohio State- 42%
Oklahoma- 37%
Georgia- 35%
LSU- 22%
Wisconsin- 20%
Auburn- 14%
Notre Dame- 12%
Oregon- 12%
Florida- 10%
Penn State- 10%
LINK
Clemson- 77%
Alabama- 45%
Ohio State- 42%
Oklahoma- 37%
Georgia- 35%
LSU- 22%
Wisconsin- 20%
Auburn- 14%
Notre Dame- 12%
Oregon- 12%
Florida- 10%
Penn State- 10%
LINK
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Posted on 9/24/19 at 9:18 am to Bench McElroy
I mean if OSU and ou go undefeated then why would any 1 loss sec team leap over them?
Posted on 9/24/19 at 9:18 am to Bench McElroy
They also projected Hillary with a landslide victory 
Posted on 9/24/19 at 9:18 am to Bench McElroy
quote:
FiveThirtyEight projects only one SEC team to make the CFB Playoff
is this surprising? Outside of some major abberation (another P5 conf champ having 2 losses) this is pretty standard procedure.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 9:30 am to Bench McElroy
Well, true...
But the SEC has 3 of the next 4 as well.
Out of the 12 schools with 10% or higher chances:
SEC - 5
B1G - 3
ACC - 1
Independent - 1
PAC-12 - 1
SEC Loaded
B1G top heavy
All others - 1 team + garbage
But the SEC has 3 of the next 4 as well.
Out of the 12 schools with 10% or higher chances:
SEC - 5
B1G - 3
ACC - 1
Independent - 1
PAC-12 - 1
SEC Loaded
B1G top heavy
All others - 1 team + garbage
Posted on 9/24/19 at 9:31 am to Arch Madness
quote:
They also projected Hillary with a landslide victory
Posted on 9/24/19 at 9:32 am to pioneerbasketball
Isn't this pretty standard though? The SEC would need a lot of help and things to break just right to get two teams.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 9:33 am to Bench McElroy
quote:
Odds to make CFB Playoff
Clemson- 77%
Alabama- 45%
LSU - 42%
Oklahoma- 37%
Georgia- 35%
Ohio State- 22%
Wisconsin- 20%
Auburn- 14%
Notre Dame- 12%
Oregon- 12%
Florida- 10%
Penn State- 10%
I dont disagree
Posted on 9/24/19 at 9:34 am to Bench McElroy
This really isn't surprising. If there are 4 undefeated P5 conference teams you have to run under the assumption that they will stayed undefeated until proven otherwise.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 9:36 am to Bench McElroy
I mean this isn’t a surprise if there are 3 undefeated teams from other conferences.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 9:40 am to Bench McElroy
quote:
Notre Dame- 12%
1 loss and no 13th game, probably dead man walking
quote:
Oregon- 12%
Whole lot of "meh" in the PAC, probably dead mans walking
quote:
Wisconsin- 20%
quote:
Penn State- 10%
If either get past Ohio State, maybe, but Penn State proved you can win the B1G and get passed over by Ohio State.
quote:
Florida- 10%
Beating UGA and the SEC West champ seems damn near impossible
quote:
Clemson- 77%
Alabama- 45%
Ohio State- 42%
Oklahoma- 37%
Georgia- 35%
LSU- 22%
Auburn- 14%
This should be the real odds pool and Alabama, LSU, and Auburn all have top play each other in the West.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 9:43 am to Arch Madness
quote:
They also projected Hillary with a landslide victory
Yeah, it's almost like statistical modelling isn't error-proof. Crazy shite.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 10:21 am to Bench McElroy
quote:
FiveThirtyEight projects only one SEC team to make the CFB Playoff
Odds to make CFB Playoff
Clemson- 77%
Alabama- 45%
Ohio State- 42%
Oklahoma- 37%
Georgia- 35%
LSU- 22%
Wisconsin- 20%
Auburn- 14%
Notre Dame- 12%
Oregon- 12%
Florida- 10%
Penn State- 10%
This isn't how percentages work. It honestly is more accurate to read this as support for the probability that two SEC teams get in.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 10:22 am to Bench McElroy
This the same dude that said Hillary would win? 
Posted on 9/24/19 at 10:24 am to N97883
I feel like OU and OSU always drop a game they shouldn’t though.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 10:26 am to Bench McElroy
quote:
Oklahoma- 37%
quote:
Wisconsin- 20%
This means that there's a 43% chance that a Big 10 team doesn't get in or, even less likely, a third Big 10 team gets in. I don't see anyone else beating either of these, so these two would split between the reg. season game and the B1GCG.
I think that the odds on these two should be closer to 85% combined.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 10:26 am to Lonnie Utah
quote:
This the same dude that said Hillary would win?
Posted on 9/24/19 at 10:34 am to Arch Madness
Actually, Nate Silver gave Trump more of a chance than most people did.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 10:40 am to Smallpond
quote:
Actually, Nate Silver gave Trump more of a chance than most people did.
Exactly. Around the same chances that Trump's team were suggesting he had, actually. People who criticize Silver and his team have zero understanding of statistical modelling as it relates to polling data.
Posted on 9/24/19 at 10:43 am to rbWarEagle
Silver said that Trump had a 30% chance of winning. Everybody else was giving Trump a <10% chance.
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