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Predicting every SEC Teams schedule using ESPN's FPI Matchup Predictor
Posted on 8/7/19 at 4:54 am
Posted on 8/7/19 at 4:54 am
I know there have been a few threads showing how a few SEC teams will do based on this but not every team so I compiled a list showing every SEC team.
Win percentage in parentheses.
Here's the methodology I used.
0-40% chance to win is considered a loss
40-60% chance is a toss up so I gave the team with the highest percentage the win
60%+ is considered a win in my opinion.
Alabama: Duke*- W (96.3%) ( played in Atlanta)
NMSU- W (99.7%)
@SCAR- W (82.5%)
So.Miss- W (98.3%)
Ole Miss- W (95.1%)
@TAMU- W (74.3%)
Tennessee- W (88.4%)
Arkansas- W (97.5%)
LSU- W (74.8%)
@ Miss. St-W (77.9%)
West. Carolina-W (99.9%)
@ Auburn-W (73.6%)
(12-0) (8-0 SEC)
Arkansas: Portland State- W(97.9%)
@ Ole Miss- L (26.6%)
Colorado St.- W (82.4%)
San Jose St.- W (87.0%)
TAMU* - L (12.8%) (played in Arlington, TX)
@ Kentucky- L (25.4%)
Auburn- L (14.5%)
@ Alabama-L (2.5%)
Miss. St- L (22.0%)
Western Kentucky- W (77.6%)
@ LSU- L (5.8%)
Missouri- L(25.1%)
(4-8) (0-8 SEC)
Auburn: Oregon*( played at Cowboys Stadium)- W (53.4%)
Tulane- W (95.2%)
Kent. St- W (98.4%)
@ TAMU- L( 42.7%)
Miss. St- W( 66.9%)
@ Florida - L (39.4%)
@ Arkansas- W (88.5%)
@ LSU - L (28.2%)
Ole Miss - W (81.6%)
Georgia - L (45.3%)
Samford - W (98.8%)
Alabama - L (26.4%)
(7-5) (3-5 SEC)
Florida: Miami* ( played in Orlando)- W( 73.4%)
UT-Martin- W (99.5%)
@ Kentucky- W (73.2%)
Tennessee- W (69.0%)
Towson- W (99.1%)
Auburn- W (60.6%)
@ LSU- L(29.7%)
@ SCAR- W (57.7%)
Georgia*( played in JAX)- L(36.8%)
Vanderbilt- W (88.5%)
Missouri- W(56.6%)
Florida St- W (74.1%)
(10-2) (6-2 SEC)
Georgia: @ Vanderbilt- W (87.1%)
Murray St- W (99.8%)
Arkansas St- W (97.7%)
Notre Dame- W (70.3%)
@ Tennessee- W (66.6%)
SCAR- W (79.9%)
Kentucky- W (90.7%)
Florida*- W (63.2%)
Missouri- W (81.2%)
@ Auburn- W (54.7%)
TAMU- W (75.8%)
@ GA Tech- W (94.9%)
(12-0) (8-0 SEC)
Kentucky: Toledo- W (82.0%)
Eastern Michigan - W (92.4%)
Florida- L (26.8%)
@ Miss. St- L (22.2%)
@ SCAR - L (25.5%)
Arkansas - W (74.6%)
@ Georgia - L (9.3%)
Missouri- L (41.3%)
Tennessee- L (38.6%)
@ Vanderbilt- L (49.4%)
UT-Martin- W (98.1%)
Louisville- W (76.8%)
(5-7) (1-7 SEC)
LSU: Georgia Southern- W (96.7%)
@ Texas- W (74.4%)
Northwestern St.- W (99.8%)
@ Vanderbilt- W (84.0%)
Utah St.- W (97.9%)
Florida - W (70.3%)
@ Miss. St - W (65.3%)
Auburn - W (71.8%)
@ Alabama- L (25.2%)
@ Ole Miss- W (82.7%)
Arkansas- W (94.2%)
TAMU- W (73.4%)
(11-1) (7-1 SEC)
Mississippi State: Louisiana* ( played in NOLA)- W ( 94.0%)
Southern Miss- W (91.4%)
Kansas State- W (87.0%)
Kentucky- W (77.8%)
@ Auburn- L (33.1%)
@ Tennessee- L (44.6%)
LSU- L (34.7%)
@ TAMU- L (34.3%)
@ Arkansas- W (78.0%)
Alabama - L (22.1%)
Abilene Christian - W (99.5%)
Ole Miss- W (74.9%)
(7-5) (3-5 SEC)
Missouri: @ Wyoming- W (87.9%)
West Virginia- W (84.8%)
Southeast Missouri St.- W (98.7%)
SCAR- W (59.0%)
Troy- W (94.3%)
Ole Miss- W (74.6%)
@ Vanderbilt- W ( 65.9%)
@ Kentucky - W (58.7%)
@ Georgia- L (18.8%)
Florida- L (43.4%)
Tennessee- L (49.6%)
Arkansas- W (74.9%)
(9-3) (5-3 SEC)
Ole Miss: @ Memphis- W (51.4%)
Arkansas- W (73.4%) Southeastern Louisiana- W (98.7%)
California- W (73.0%)
@ Alabama- L (4.9%)
Vanderbilt- W (64.5%)
@ Missouri- L ( 25.4%)
Texas A&M - L (29.6%)
@ Auburn - L (18.4%)
New Mexico St - W ( 96.0%)
LSU - L ( 17.3%)
Miss. State - L (25.1%)
(6-6) (2-6 SEC)
South Carolina:
North Carolina* ( played in Charlotte)- W (77.1%)
Charleston Southern- W (99.3%)
Alabama- L (17.5%)
@ Missouri- L ( 41.0%)
Kentucky- W (74.5%)
@ Georgia- L (20.1%)
Florida - L (42.3%)
@ Tennessee- L (37.0%)
Vanderbilt- W (77.2%)
Appalachian State- W (85.8%)
@ Texas A&M- L (26.2%)
Clemson- L (14.9%)
(5-7) (2-6 SEC)
Tennessee: Georgia State- W (97.0%)
BYU- W (81.4%)
Chattanooga - W (99.0%)
@ Florida - L (31.0%)
Georgia - L (33.4%)
Miss. St- W (55.4%)
@ Alabama- L (11.6%)
South Carolina- W (63.0%)
UAB- W (94.6%)
@ Kentucky- W (61.4%)
@ Missouri- W (50.4%)
Vanderbilt- W (82.5%)
(9-3) (5-3 SEC)
Texas A&M- Texas State- W (97.6%)
@ Clemson- L (12.0%)
Lamar- W (99.6%)
Auburn- W (57.3%)
Arkansas*- W (87.2%)
Alabama - L (25.7%)
@ Ole Miss- W (70.4%)
Miss. St - W (65.7%)
UTSA- W (98.0%)
South Carolina- W (73.8%)
@ Georgia- L (24.2%)
@ LSU- L (26.6%)
(8-4) (5-3 SEC)
Vanderbilt: Georgia- L (12.9%)
@ Purdue- W (51.5%)
LSU- L (16.0%)
Northern Illinois- W (83.8%)
@ Ole Miss-L (35.5%)
UNLV-W (89.0%)
Missouri-L (34.1%)
@ SCAR-L (22.8%)
@ Florida-L (11.5%)
Kentucky-W (50.6%)
East Tennessee St-W (99.1%)
@ Tennessee-L (17.5%)
(5-7) (1-7 SEC)
Updated to include methodology used.
Win percentage in parentheses.
Here's the methodology I used.
0-40% chance to win is considered a loss
40-60% chance is a toss up so I gave the team with the highest percentage the win
60%+ is considered a win in my opinion.
Alabama: Duke*- W (96.3%) ( played in Atlanta)
NMSU- W (99.7%)
@SCAR- W (82.5%)
So.Miss- W (98.3%)
Ole Miss- W (95.1%)
@TAMU- W (74.3%)
Tennessee- W (88.4%)
Arkansas- W (97.5%)
LSU- W (74.8%)
@ Miss. St-W (77.9%)
West. Carolina-W (99.9%)
@ Auburn-W (73.6%)
(12-0) (8-0 SEC)
Arkansas: Portland State- W(97.9%)
@ Ole Miss- L (26.6%)
Colorado St.- W (82.4%)
San Jose St.- W (87.0%)
TAMU* - L (12.8%) (played in Arlington, TX)
@ Kentucky- L (25.4%)
Auburn- L (14.5%)
@ Alabama-L (2.5%)
Miss. St- L (22.0%)
Western Kentucky- W (77.6%)
@ LSU- L (5.8%)
Missouri- L(25.1%)
(4-8) (0-8 SEC)
Auburn: Oregon*( played at Cowboys Stadium)- W (53.4%)
Tulane- W (95.2%)
Kent. St- W (98.4%)
@ TAMU- L( 42.7%)
Miss. St- W( 66.9%)
@ Florida - L (39.4%)
@ Arkansas- W (88.5%)
@ LSU - L (28.2%)
Ole Miss - W (81.6%)
Georgia - L (45.3%)
Samford - W (98.8%)
Alabama - L (26.4%)
(7-5) (3-5 SEC)
Florida: Miami* ( played in Orlando)- W( 73.4%)
UT-Martin- W (99.5%)
@ Kentucky- W (73.2%)
Tennessee- W (69.0%)
Towson- W (99.1%)
Auburn- W (60.6%)
@ LSU- L(29.7%)
@ SCAR- W (57.7%)
Georgia*( played in JAX)- L(36.8%)
Vanderbilt- W (88.5%)
Missouri- W(56.6%)
Florida St- W (74.1%)
(10-2) (6-2 SEC)
Georgia: @ Vanderbilt- W (87.1%)
Murray St- W (99.8%)
Arkansas St- W (97.7%)
Notre Dame- W (70.3%)
@ Tennessee- W (66.6%)
SCAR- W (79.9%)
Kentucky- W (90.7%)
Florida*- W (63.2%)
Missouri- W (81.2%)
@ Auburn- W (54.7%)
TAMU- W (75.8%)
@ GA Tech- W (94.9%)
(12-0) (8-0 SEC)
Kentucky: Toledo- W (82.0%)
Eastern Michigan - W (92.4%)
Florida- L (26.8%)
@ Miss. St- L (22.2%)
@ SCAR - L (25.5%)
Arkansas - W (74.6%)
@ Georgia - L (9.3%)
Missouri- L (41.3%)
Tennessee- L (38.6%)
@ Vanderbilt- L (49.4%)
UT-Martin- W (98.1%)
Louisville- W (76.8%)
(5-7) (1-7 SEC)
LSU: Georgia Southern- W (96.7%)
@ Texas- W (74.4%)
Northwestern St.- W (99.8%)
@ Vanderbilt- W (84.0%)
Utah St.- W (97.9%)
Florida - W (70.3%)
@ Miss. St - W (65.3%)
Auburn - W (71.8%)
@ Alabama- L (25.2%)
@ Ole Miss- W (82.7%)
Arkansas- W (94.2%)
TAMU- W (73.4%)
(11-1) (7-1 SEC)
Mississippi State: Louisiana* ( played in NOLA)- W ( 94.0%)
Southern Miss- W (91.4%)
Kansas State- W (87.0%)
Kentucky- W (77.8%)
@ Auburn- L (33.1%)
@ Tennessee- L (44.6%)
LSU- L (34.7%)
@ TAMU- L (34.3%)
@ Arkansas- W (78.0%)
Alabama - L (22.1%)
Abilene Christian - W (99.5%)
Ole Miss- W (74.9%)
(7-5) (3-5 SEC)
Missouri: @ Wyoming- W (87.9%)
West Virginia- W (84.8%)
Southeast Missouri St.- W (98.7%)
SCAR- W (59.0%)
Troy- W (94.3%)
Ole Miss- W (74.6%)
@ Vanderbilt- W ( 65.9%)
@ Kentucky - W (58.7%)
@ Georgia- L (18.8%)
Florida- L (43.4%)
Tennessee- L (49.6%)
Arkansas- W (74.9%)
(9-3) (5-3 SEC)
Ole Miss: @ Memphis- W (51.4%)
Arkansas- W (73.4%) Southeastern Louisiana- W (98.7%)
California- W (73.0%)
@ Alabama- L (4.9%)
Vanderbilt- W (64.5%)
@ Missouri- L ( 25.4%)
Texas A&M - L (29.6%)
@ Auburn - L (18.4%)
New Mexico St - W ( 96.0%)
LSU - L ( 17.3%)
Miss. State - L (25.1%)
(6-6) (2-6 SEC)
South Carolina:
North Carolina* ( played in Charlotte)- W (77.1%)
Charleston Southern- W (99.3%)
Alabama- L (17.5%)
@ Missouri- L ( 41.0%)
Kentucky- W (74.5%)
@ Georgia- L (20.1%)
Florida - L (42.3%)
@ Tennessee- L (37.0%)
Vanderbilt- W (77.2%)
Appalachian State- W (85.8%)
@ Texas A&M- L (26.2%)
Clemson- L (14.9%)
(5-7) (2-6 SEC)
Tennessee: Georgia State- W (97.0%)
BYU- W (81.4%)
Chattanooga - W (99.0%)
@ Florida - L (31.0%)
Georgia - L (33.4%)
Miss. St- W (55.4%)
@ Alabama- L (11.6%)
South Carolina- W (63.0%)
UAB- W (94.6%)
@ Kentucky- W (61.4%)
@ Missouri- W (50.4%)
Vanderbilt- W (82.5%)
(9-3) (5-3 SEC)
Texas A&M- Texas State- W (97.6%)
@ Clemson- L (12.0%)
Lamar- W (99.6%)
Auburn- W (57.3%)
Arkansas*- W (87.2%)
Alabama - L (25.7%)
@ Ole Miss- W (70.4%)
Miss. St - W (65.7%)
UTSA- W (98.0%)
South Carolina- W (73.8%)
@ Georgia- L (24.2%)
@ LSU- L (26.6%)
(8-4) (5-3 SEC)
Vanderbilt: Georgia- L (12.9%)
@ Purdue- W (51.5%)
LSU- L (16.0%)
Northern Illinois- W (83.8%)
@ Ole Miss-L (35.5%)
UNLV-W (89.0%)
Missouri-L (34.1%)
@ SCAR-L (22.8%)
@ Florida-L (11.5%)
Kentucky-W (50.6%)
East Tennessee St-W (99.1%)
@ Tennessee-L (17.5%)
(5-7) (1-7 SEC)
Updated to include methodology used.
This post was edited on 8/9/19 at 1:59 pm
28
Posted on 8/7/19 at 5:29 am to AUFan2015
Yikes
Posted on 8/7/19 at 5:40 am to AUFan2015
Auburn 6-6 and Tenner 9-3. I guess these guys don’t put as much emphasis on the LOS as I do. UT will be starting true freshman on the o-line and lost lots of talent on the d-line.
Posted on 8/7/19 at 5:47 am to AUFan2015
I'll believe 9-3 out of Tennessee when I see it actually happen. In reality, I see us at 7-5 (adding SC and Mizzou as loses to the 3 they have)
Posted on 8/7/19 at 6:38 am to AUFan2015
That has Auburn as 6-5, you left off the Samford game
Posted on 8/7/19 at 6:43 am to AUFan2015
I think this thing had us 5-7 going into last year so 
Posted on 8/7/19 at 6:46 am to Draconian Sanctions
quote:
Auburn: Oregon*( played at Cowboys Stadium)- W (53.4%) Tulane- W (95.2%) Kent. St- W (98.4%) @ TAMU- L( 42.7%) Miss. St- W( 66.9%) @ Florida - L (39.4%) @ Arkansas- W (88.5%) @ LSU - L (28.2%) Ole Miss - W (81.6%) Georgia - L (45.3%) Alabama - L (26.4%)
Counting a Samford win and that would be 7-5. Math is hard.
Posted on 8/7/19 at 6:46 am to AUFan2015
Arkansas is not going to be very good this year but I think that even most Ole Miss fans would agree that we have a better then 26% chance of knocking them off.
I say that with no insult intended to my Rebelblackbearlandshark friends.
I say that with no insult intended to my Rebelblackbearlandshark friends.
Posted on 8/7/19 at 7:00 am to AUFan2015
So, UGA has a better chance of winning against Notre Dame than winning at Tennessee.
That should tell the national talking heads enough.
That should tell the national talking heads enough.
Posted on 8/7/19 at 7:19 am to AUFan2015
9-3 looks about right.
Posted on 8/7/19 at 7:21 am to AUFan2015
i'll take it.
Posted on 8/7/19 at 7:22 am to AUFan2015
Wow, Tennessee's schedule is an absolute joke.
Posted on 8/7/19 at 7:33 am to AUFan2015
So basically the Auburn, Tennessee and A&M games can be the difference between State having a great or meh season.
Posted on 8/7/19 at 7:37 am to AUFan2015
That's a lot of 90%'s for Bama
Posted on 8/7/19 at 7:42 am to AUFan2015
I find it interesting that they show Auburn as having the best shot at beating Alabama.
It tells us what they think of Auburn, and to a degree I guess they feel like rivalry games can go either way.
Looking at Auburn's schedule, I realize it is a very tough schedule, but I don't see them losing 5 games. It wouldn't surprise me if they had an excellent year.
It tells us what they think of Auburn, and to a degree I guess they feel like rivalry games can go either way.
Looking at Auburn's schedule, I realize it is a very tough schedule, but I don't see them losing 5 games. It wouldn't surprise me if they had an excellent year.
Posted on 8/7/19 at 8:22 am to AUFan2015
I would be pretty surprised if Tennessee actually turns out to be our third toughest/closest game of the year.
Seems like these metrics are propping the Vols up a bit
Seems like these metrics are propping the Vols up a bit
Posted on 8/7/19 at 8:26 am to AUFan2015
That's cute
Posted on 8/7/19 at 8:27 am to Mad Dawg 2020
Mizzou is definitely the toughest game of the year. Not a chance Barry loses to Tenner after poaching our players. Those boys are going into that game with fire in their bellies after possible 2 losses to florida and Georgia back 2 back
Posted on 8/7/19 at 8:27 am to AUFan2015
Because ever game goes how it's predicted...
This post was edited on 8/7/19 at 8:29 am
Posted on 8/7/19 at 8:31 am to AUFan2015
quote:
Mississippi Stat @ TAMU- L (34.3%)
This post was edited on 8/7/19 at 8:32 am
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