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re: Predicting every SEC Teams schedule using ESPN's FPI Matchup Predictor
Posted on 8/7/19 at 10:35 pm to BornAndRaised_LA
Posted on 8/7/19 at 10:35 pm to BornAndRaised_LA
If a team had the higher percentage I counted that as a win for that team. Do I think this will end up being each team's record?
No, the matchup predictor will obviously change as each game gets closer and, then there are things like injuries, upsets, etc. that will determine a team's record.
This was a just for fun thread since it's still the off-season, to get a conversation started on each teams expectations for the upcoming season.
No, the matchup predictor will obviously change as each game gets closer and, then there are things like injuries, upsets, etc. that will determine a team's record.
This was a just for fun thread since it's still the off-season, to get a conversation started on each teams expectations for the upcoming season.
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Posted on 8/7/19 at 10:44 pm to AUFan2015
I read your op and all the responses. It is just dumb in my opinion. Sorry I hurt your feels, if you think it is smart, more power to you.
Posted on 8/7/19 at 10:48 pm to Leto II
Posted on 8/7/19 at 10:50 pm to mulletproof
Didn't hurt my feelings at all. Just think it's dumb to post in a thread on something you think is stupid. I'd just skip over it. To each his own. Let's leave it at that.
Posted on 8/7/19 at 10:50 pm to deltaland
quote:
Feel like Tennessee is a bit inflated
Most of the algorithms like them due to favorable schedule and returning like 90%+ of their production from last year... New coordinators in year 2 on both sides of the ball definitely seems to be getting ignored.
Posted on 8/7/19 at 11:06 pm to East Coast Band
quote:
So, UGA has a better chance of winning against Notre Dame than winning at Tennessee. That should tell the national talking heads enough.
Do not forget that Missouri beat Tennessee big the last 2 years! and this year is going to be a loss? No way!
Posted on 8/8/19 at 11:53 pm to AUFan2015
LOL at Florida with a 56% chance of winning at Mizzou
Posted on 8/9/19 at 12:10 am to mutigerz
I don’t see SC at 5-7, not with everything we have coming back. This is also the same FPI that says we’re a top 20 team saying we’ll go 5-7. I see 7-5, maybe 8-4. 9-3 and Muschamp is coach of the year with this slate.
Posted on 8/9/19 at 7:33 am to chawk195
The lone takeaway is that ESPN'S FPI is a terrible algorithm.
Posted on 8/9/19 at 7:36 am to AUFan2015
quote:
KENTUCKY (5-7) (1-7 SEC)
I'll perma-ban bet anyone on that prognostication. It's asinine and is the same ole same ole LAZY and uninformed reporting that happens every season.
Posted on 8/9/19 at 8:14 am to UKWildcats
quote:
The lone takeaway is that ESPN'S FPI is a terrible algorithm.
Nah. But, treating a 51% and 98% as the same 1 win doesn't make a lot of sense.
Posted on 8/9/19 at 8:29 am to East Coast Band
quote:
So, UGA has a better chance of winning against Notre Dame than winning at Tennessee.
I don't think ND would finish any better than 8-4 with TN's schedule. Brian Kelly is 23-16 on the road as the head coach at ND, and 4-10 on the road against ranked opponents.
Not really a stretch when you consider UGA has ND at home and TN on the road.
Posted on 8/9/19 at 9:03 am to AUFan2015
You know that’s not how statistics work? You’ve got to take all probabilities into consideration and factor that into a team’s chances using a cumulative probability distribution. Otherwise it’s flawed, ie, a team with 10 games to win at 51% would be considered undefeated in your model
Posted on 8/9/19 at 11:56 am to CoachDon
quote:Seconded. I will join Coach and take another ban bet with a second taker. UK is looking at 7 to 9 wins.
I'll perma-ban bet anyone on that prognostication. It's asinine and is the same ole same ole LAZY and uninformed reporting that happens every season
Posted on 8/9/19 at 1:41 pm to Arch Madness
Here's the methodology I used.
0-40% chance to win is considered a loss
40-60% chance is a toss up so I gave the team with the highest percentage the win
60%+ is considered a win in my opinion.
Again this is a just for fun thread mostly meant to encourage discussion on how each team will do this season.
Like I said to another poster who had an issue with this, the FPI predictor will change as the games get closer, and also there are things like upsets, injuries, team isn't as good as predicted or vice versa, etc. that will change the results; so right now a game that is a loss might turn into a win and vice versa.
0-40% chance to win is considered a loss
40-60% chance is a toss up so I gave the team with the highest percentage the win
60%+ is considered a win in my opinion.
Again this is a just for fun thread mostly meant to encourage discussion on how each team will do this season.
Like I said to another poster who had an issue with this, the FPI predictor will change as the games get closer, and also there are things like upsets, injuries, team isn't as good as predicted or vice versa, etc. that will change the results; so right now a game that is a loss might turn into a win and vice versa.
Posted on 8/9/19 at 1:47 pm to AUFan2015
I hope I'm wrong, but it seems our chances of winning per %-wise should be a bit lower on some of these...Notre Dame, UT, UF, AU and A&M are all going to be tough for us.
Posted on 8/9/19 at 1:53 pm to Cobb Dawg
quote:
If Pruitt goes 9-3, he should get NCAA CFB COTY Award.
We don't agree on much but this is one thing I will give you
I had us at 6 or 7 wins but with that DL getting hurt im down to 5-6 wins
Posted on 8/9/19 at 1:58 pm to BoerneAg
quote:
Wow, Tennessee's schedule is an absolute joke.
IIRC, it's ranked at 7th in the nation but it is easier than what we normally play.
Posted on 8/9/19 at 2:01 pm to Mad Dawg 2020
quote:
I would be pretty surprised if Tennessee actually turns out to be our third toughest/closest game of the year.
Seems like these metrics are propping the Vols up a bit
I don't know what they're using, maybe they're looking at series history as a factor, but there's no reason for UF to be rated a harder game than UGA other than the fact that losing to UF is what we do no matter how good or bad either team is.
This post was edited on 8/9/19 at 2:02 pm
Posted on 8/9/19 at 2:03 pm to Prof
There is no way we lose to Tennessee.
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