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re: Are we about to have a changing of the guard in the SEC?

Posted on 11/29/18 at 1:04 pm to
Posted by rich4pres
Knoxville
Member since Dec 2016
9853 posts
Posted on 11/29/18 at 1:04 pm to
Ha! No. Bama by three touchdowns
Posted by jbond
Atlanta
Member since Jun 2012
4939 posts
Posted on 11/29/18 at 1:11 pm to
How you gonna post this after getting owned by the 3rd best team in the west?
Posted by BHMKyle
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
5076 posts
Posted on 11/29/18 at 1:17 pm to
quote:

Are there any signs that Saban is losing control of this team?


Bama fans, as usual, are missing the point. This is much more about Georgia building a program that can very well challenge Bama than it is about Bama's program falling apart. No one ever said that. I certainly didn't.

But look at the 247Sports Overall Team Talent by year, with the Top 4 SEC teams ranked by year:

2015 Overall Talent
1. Alabama- 981.90 (63 Four/Five Stars)
5. LSU- 889.37 (48 Four/Five Stars)
6. Georgia- 877.74 (41 Four/Five Stars)
7. Auburn- 865.41 (44 Four/Five Stars)

2016 Overall Talent
1. Alabama- 982.66 (61 Four/Five Stars)
3. LSU- 917.72 (54 Four/Five Stars)
6. Georgia- 872.00 (42 Four/Five Stars)
7. Auburn- 865.36 (44 Four/Five Stars)

2017 Overall Talent
1. Alabama- 999.57 (69 Four/Five Stars)
4. Georgia- 930.34 (54 Four/Five Stars)
6. LSU- 907.10 (52 Four/Five Stars)
8. Auburn- 854.15 (45 Four/Five Stars)

2018 Overall Talent
2. Alabama- 978.54 (63 Four/Five Stars)
3. Georgia- 963.87 (61 Four/Five Stars)
7. LSU- 890.95 (50 Four/Five Stars)
12. Florida- 835.84 (35 Four/Five Stars)

According to their data, the advantage of Four+Five Star kids on the roster has gone from +22... to +19... to +15... to now +2 compared to Georgia during the last four years.
Posted by BHMKyle
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
5076 posts
Posted on 11/29/18 at 1:20 pm to
quote:

Haven't won a championship is a generation...changing of the guard?


... And until Bama knocked off Florida in '09, Bama had experienced SIX seasons of 6+ losses since it had last won a National Title. That's what a "changing of the guard" is by definition.... a new team steps up.

If you've won 2 national titles going into a game, there is no change of the guard to be had. That program is already there.

Think.
Posted by Che Boludo
Member since May 2009
18274 posts
Posted on 11/29/18 at 1:23 pm to
quote:

Ole Miss beat us two years in a row. It wasn't a changing of the guard.
damn near 3 in a row, which is why I assumed this was a UT thread with Pruitt and Freeze rebalancing the SEC.
This post was edited on 11/29/18 at 1:24 pm
Posted by BHMKyle
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
5076 posts
Posted on 11/29/18 at 1:23 pm to
quote:

How you gonna post this after getting owned by the 3rd best team in the west?


Are we now back to talking about Ole Miss beating Bama in back to back seasons?
Posted by Sneaky__Sally
Member since Jul 2015
12364 posts
Posted on 11/29/18 at 1:24 pm to
quote:

My gut tells me Alabama wins on Saturday. But if Georgia does pull the upset, look for it to be the official changing of the guard that is well overdue.


except Tua is coming back next year - SEC fricked
Posted by Sneaky__Sally
Member since Jul 2015
12364 posts
Posted on 11/29/18 at 1:28 pm to
quote:

Bama fans, as usual, are missing the point. This is much more about Georgia building a program that can very well challenge Bama than it is about Bama's program falling apart. No one ever said that. I certainly didn't.


Except comparing it to the Bama/Florida "changing of the guard" literally implies that - unless you just weren't aware of the direction each program took in the subsequent years.
Posted by Gustave
Member since Nov 2015
3389 posts
Posted on 11/29/18 at 1:28 pm to
How does Ohio State recruiting compare over the last 6 or so years?

Alabama is currently on a historic run and shouldn't be the measuring stick. It's more likely you repeat OSU's current run than Alabama's.

Posted by ibldprplgld
Member since Feb 2008
25103 posts
Posted on 11/29/18 at 1:30 pm to
quote:

Which is what everyone thought about Bear Bryant... yet he had 6 losses and a tie in his final two seasons. That tie was to Southern Miss the year after losing to Southern Miss.

That's also what folks thought about Steve Spurrier... then he lost 9 games in his final three seasons.



I hate to break it to you, but Saban is a better coach than both Spurrier and Bryant, so those examples really aren't applicable. Might it start coming apart under Saban at some point? Maybe, but I doubt it. It certainly isn't starting this year or next year. I really think he's going for the three-peat, and it appears he has the team this and next year to do it.

Posted by UAgrad93
Sylacauga
Member since Oct 2015
1495 posts
Posted on 11/29/18 at 1:35 pm to
NOPE!! Next question.
Posted by BHMKyle
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
5076 posts
Posted on 11/29/18 at 1:53 pm to
quote:

Except comparing it to the Bama/Florida "changing of the guard" literally implies that - unless you just weren't aware of the direction each program took in the subsequent years.


Despite the revisionist history expressed by many today, there were virtually no signs of Florida's dynasty on the verge of collapse going into that SEC Championship Game in 2009.... if there had been, why would they have been a 5-point Vegas favorite as a 1-loss team playing an undefeated opponent?

Florida's recruiting class rankings back then:
2006: #2
2007: #1
2008: #5
2009: #7 (lost to Bama that year)
2010: #1

Yes, things in Gainesville were in such a collapse at the time yet they still managed to sign the #1 recruiting class just 2 months later. Sure that makes sense.

It wasn't until Urban's health scare (after the game) and his subsequent announcement to take time off that any cracks began to emerge.

Bama first started to challenge Florida's dynasty by bringing in talented recruits that could challenge Florida.... that started with signing Top 3 classes in 2008 and 2009.

The first step was bringing in similar talent. If Kirby was trying to recreate that first step of the Saban blueprint, he seems to be doing a good job at that.

The second step was Saban beating Florida on the field in a Championship setting. Georgia was close last year. They have another shot this year. But if Georgia ever wants to unseat Bama, that is obviously Step #2.

Will it happen Saturday? Who knows.
Posted by nb200016
Atlanta, GA
Member since Mar 2014
1282 posts
Posted on 11/29/18 at 1:57 pm to
09 Florida was a team that struggled quite a few times.

2018 Bama has beat its opponents by 22+ each

Jus sayin
Posted by Gustave
Member since Nov 2015
3389 posts
Posted on 11/29/18 at 2:01 pm to
quote:

 if there had been, why would they have been a 5-point Vegas favorite as a 1-loss team playing an undefeated opponent?


Small correction but they were both undefeated.
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
102699 posts
Posted on 11/29/18 at 2:02 pm to
I mean, it's possible I guess, but considering what Alabama returns in 2019 and the long track record Saban has of evolving and meeting challenges, I'll just say I'd be pretty shocked to see us go 8-5 in 2019, have half our team quit or arrested, Saban retire and then go 7-6.

It's possible, but I dont see it.

Much more likely that Georgia and Alabama wrestle for the next few years until Saban retires.
This post was edited on 11/29/18 at 2:04 pm
Posted by ChewyDante
Member since Jan 2007
16931 posts
Posted on 11/29/18 at 2:06 pm to
quote:

My gut tells me Alabama wins on Saturday. But if Georgia does pull the upset, look for it to be the official changing of the guard that is well overdue.






You guys got blown out by LSU in a year we were expected to win 7 or 8 games tops. Georgia is a great program and is the clear power in the East for the time being but Bama is entrenched as the top dog and has shown NO signs of stepping back. Even if Georgia were to somehow win, it wouldn't inidcate anything outside of that single game. You're delusional to think otherwise and as a Bama hater I'd love to think otherwise.
Posted by JeBron Lames
Miami
Member since Jun 2018
40 posts
Posted on 11/29/18 at 2:10 pm to
So Nick Saban retires for health reasons and then shows up in an easier competition conference like the BIG 12 or something?
Posted by BHMKyle
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
5076 posts
Posted on 11/29/18 at 2:42 pm to
quote:

I'd be pretty shocked to see us go 8-5 in 2019, have half our team quit or arrested, Saban retire and then go 7-6.


When did I ever state that was where Bama is headed? No one thinks that.

First of all, I expect Bama will likely win Saturday by a touchdown or more.

A "changing of the guard" does not mean the out-going king completely falls apart the very next season.

I don't see Bama losing more than 1-2 games per season anytime soon. When they do begin losing 2-3 games per season, its safe to say the dynasty is over. That's obviously not happening this year and its unlikely to happen next year.

But if Georgia can maintain 11-1 regular seasons as the new norm year-end and year-out, if and when Georgia defeats Alabama in a Championship setting, it becomes at the very least debatable as to who's on top at that point. That's the entire point.

So for the insecure Bama fans out there, no one said you were destined for 5 loss seasons going forward.
Posted by BamaGradinTn
Murfreesboro
Member since Dec 2008
26994 posts
Posted on 11/29/18 at 2:48 pm to
quote:

When did I ever state that was where Bama is headed? No one thinks that.


You made the "changing of the guard" comparison to 2009 Florida. The guard didn't change in 2009 merely because Alabama won the game. The guard changed because Meyer had recruited a bunch of degenerates, including a murderer and a guy who was arrested for DUI a couple of nights before the game, and was completely losing control of the program. If you were watching football back in 2009, you know this.

That's why your comparison is invalid. Even if you win the game Saturday by a couple of touchdowns, you don't have that environment in Tuscaloosa like you had in Gainesville. You don't have a coach who has lost control of his program and is looking to bail out.
This post was edited on 11/29/18 at 2:51 pm
Posted by coachcrisp
pensacola, fl
Member since Jun 2012
30607 posts
Posted on 11/29/18 at 2:51 pm to
As I post, I believe Alabama is holding the #1 recruiting class for 2019 AND 2020....what does that tell you?
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