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Statistical Game Preview: Texas A&M vs LSU
Posted on 11/20/18 at 9:55 am
Posted on 11/20/18 at 9:55 am
Preface:
I usually only do this for Texas A&M and its opponent.
This puts Team 1s Offense Stats versus Team 2s Defense Stats and vice versa. Note: These stats are the vs-FBS-Only stats; they do not use stats accrued versus cupcake teams from non-FBS conferences
Blue = Top 25 in statistical category
Red = Bottom 30 in Statistical category
The "advantage" means that one team is ranked 20+ spots higher in the national ranking for that statistical category.
The formulas at the bottom are based loosely on statistical predictive analysis used in sales / inventory forecasting, but incorporates the following variables: points per yard, +/- % versus opposing teams played Offense & Defense, turnover margins, homefield advantage, and Las Vegas Betting Line (-2.0 TAMU for this game), plus a few others...
I hope this encourages some good debate and prediction / game strategy discussion for you all.
I usually only do this for Texas A&M and its opponent.
This puts Team 1s Offense Stats versus Team 2s Defense Stats and vice versa. Note: These stats are the vs-FBS-Only stats; they do not use stats accrued versus cupcake teams from non-FBS conferences
Blue = Top 25 in statistical category
Red = Bottom 30 in Statistical category
The "advantage" means that one team is ranked 20+ spots higher in the national ranking for that statistical category.
The formulas at the bottom are based loosely on statistical predictive analysis used in sales / inventory forecasting, but incorporates the following variables: points per yard, +/- % versus opposing teams played Offense & Defense, turnover margins, homefield advantage, and Las Vegas Betting Line (-2.0 TAMU for this game), plus a few others...
I hope this encourages some good debate and prediction / game strategy discussion for you all.
This post was edited on 11/20/18 at 9:57 am
19
Posted on 11/20/18 at 9:56 am to SpreadsheetAg
Damn, that is some good shite.
You've been holding out on us. Give us this every week SpreadsheetAg.
You've been holding out on us. Give us this every week SpreadsheetAg.
Posted on 11/20/18 at 9:57 am to SpreadsheetAg
quote:
Preface:
I usually only do this for Texas A&M and its opponent.
But second time this year for LSU
Posted on 11/20/18 at 10:00 am to SummerOfGeorge
Thanks! I did the one for LSU vs Mississippi State during the Aggie bye-week. It takes about 2-3 hours to put it all together, and that's with all the macros and web-queries I've put in over time to help speed things along :) Anyways, I'd love to do this for all the big games, but I have a job to also do well at :)
This post was edited on 11/20/18 at 10:04 am
Posted on 11/20/18 at 10:00 am to SpreadsheetAg
quote:
Anyways, I'd love to do this for all the big games, but I have a job to also do well at :)
I feel ya - great stuff though
Posted on 11/20/18 at 10:02 am to SpreadsheetAg
Formula 1 predicting OT.
Give me that shite.
Give me that shite.
Posted on 11/20/18 at 10:03 am to SpreadsheetAg
God bless you for using Sailor Mike.
Posted on 11/20/18 at 10:04 am to SpreadsheetAg
So basically, what I'm seeing here is that unless Burrow shows up hungry and proceeds to feast on the weak A&M pass defense, the game may end 3-0.
Posted on 11/20/18 at 10:04 am to SpreadsheetAg
quote:
SpreadsheetAg
Your reputation precedes you. Well done, sir!
Posted on 11/20/18 at 10:04 am to SpreadsheetAg
Also, great fricking job.
Posted on 11/20/18 at 10:04 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Damn, that is some good shite.
You've been holding out on us. Give us this every week SpreadsheetAg.
In the past, he has done this on TexAgs. He needs to turn away from that cesspool of Looch's ego and do his work in a place where no arse-kissing is necessary.
Posted on 11/20/18 at 10:23 am to SpreadsheetAg
So basically LSU is going to need to win the turnover battle by 2 or so to actually win this one.
Posted on 11/20/18 at 10:26 am to Farmer1906
Or exploit that mess of a secondary.
Mond is going to turn it over.
Mond is going to turn it over.
Posted on 11/20/18 at 10:31 am to SpreadsheetAg
Nice work.
One thing that I would be weary of listing as advantage/disadvantage would be in the kickoff game. Granted, I do understand that it is listed in that fashion as a team stat and whatnot, but LSU has only allowed a total of 5 kickoff returns all season. Avery Atkins is second nationally for touchback percentage at nearly 91% (59/65).
TAMU has allowed over twice as many returns.
I don't know, I just don't think it's a strong statistic to use for either team to say one has advantage over the other. But you can't do much but show what data is available.
Edit to add:
That Rice game certainly drags down LSU's opponents record. UAB turned out to be quite the squad this year, helps make the Aggy schedule look better.
One thing that I would be weary of listing as advantage/disadvantage would be in the kickoff game. Granted, I do understand that it is listed in that fashion as a team stat and whatnot, but LSU has only allowed a total of 5 kickoff returns all season. Avery Atkins is second nationally for touchback percentage at nearly 91% (59/65).
TAMU has allowed over twice as many returns.
I don't know, I just don't think it's a strong statistic to use for either team to say one has advantage over the other. But you can't do much but show what data is available.
Edit to add:
That Rice game certainly drags down LSU's opponents record. UAB turned out to be quite the squad this year, helps make the Aggy schedule look better.
This post was edited on 11/20/18 at 10:34 am
Posted on 11/20/18 at 10:36 am to GeauxTigerNation
Vs Arkansas(96th in pass d), Ole Miss(121), and Rice(124) he averaged 264 yards and 2 TDs. That's not bad, but it's not taking over.
LSU hasn't faced a Rush D as good as A&M's, but MSU and Bama were the closest. LSU averaged 61 yards and 1/2 a TD in those games.
If I said you'd had 325 yards and 21 points right now, would you take it?
LSU hasn't faced a Rush D as good as A&M's, but MSU and Bama were the closest. LSU averaged 61 yards and 1/2 a TD in those games.
If I said you'd had 325 yards and 21 points right now, would you take it?
Posted on 11/20/18 at 10:37 am to Sasquatch Smash
quote:
Aggy schedule look better.
Not just look. It makes it better. UAB is a quality team.
Posted on 11/20/18 at 10:38 am to SpreadsheetAg
Good job. No way LSU wins this game. Streak over....
Posted on 11/20/18 at 10:38 am to SpreadsheetAg
Tip of the hat to ya...
I appreciate the time, work and attention to detail!
I appreciate the time, work and attention to detail!
Posted on 11/20/18 at 10:41 am to geauxbrown
quote:
No way LSU wins this game. Streak over....
you should bet the mortgage on this.
Posted on 11/20/18 at 10:42 am to geauxbrown
Stats say one thing. The players say another.
It’s why we play the games. Don’t get your panties in a twist mate.
It’s why we play the games. Don’t get your panties in a twist mate.
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