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Statistical Analysis Shows Alabama Gets Screwed By Holding Calls More Than Any Other Team
Posted on 10/2/18 at 3:29 pm
Posted on 10/2/18 at 3:29 pm
quote:
As a follow up to my earlier thread here, I performed a deeper dive on offensive holding. In the initial thread, I found that in 2014-2017, Michigan's defense had only drawn 10 offensive holding calls, significantly less than all other B1G teams.
Defensive line performance is a poor predictor of offensive holding calls, but Michigan and Alabama both draw holding at a much lower clip than other NCAA teams.
I downloaded the 2010 – 2017 Play by Play data from the ESPN API. This contained 1,234,271 plays, during which, 82,570 penalties were called. Additionally, I correlated this data with Football Outsiders’ Offensive Line and Defensive Line statistics, found here.
Each of the 1.2M plays has a “free text” field which describes the play, and if there is one, the penalty and whom it was called on. As an example, this means Michigan could be referred to as Michigan, UM, UofM, Mich, etc. I very carefully developed an algorithm to assign the penalty called, and who it was called on and drawn by, based on this field for all NCAA games involving an FBS team. While I’m sure it wasn’t 100% accurate, I do think I did a pretty good job and designed some good tests to check this process. Probably 99%+ accurate.
Are there any good predictors of Offensive Holding being called?
Honestly, none that I could find. I found evidence that holding calls are generally random…with a slight edge given to the underdog team or team currently losing. This means the argument “Michigan’s D-Line has been amongst the best in the country, we should be getting more holding calls than everyone else” probably lacks merit based on the data.
As it turns out, Michigan and Alabama are in a special kind of unlucky streak, stretching for many years. The below is a graph of all FBS teams 2012- present (B1G teams are represented by their logos) for all games played. Michigan is towards the top right – in the “we’re getting screwed” category. The only team that has fared worse is Alabama. A lot worse. Since 2012, Alabama has drawn a holding once every 260 plays. That is nearly 2.5 times the average.
LINK
Posted on 10/2/18 at 3:30 pm to Bench McElroy
So you’re saying that Alabama’s line can’t get enough of a push to draw a holding call...
Posted on 10/2/18 at 3:31 pm to Bench McElroy
No
This post was edited on 10/2/18 at 3:32 pm
Posted on 10/2/18 at 3:31 pm to Bench McElroy
It's the timing of the calls. The refs use a formula specifically made to frick over LSU.
Posted on 10/2/18 at 3:32 pm to Bench McElroy
Alabama holds every play
Alabama opponents hold every play
Alabama opponents hold every play
Posted on 10/2/18 at 3:35 pm to Bench McElroy
So what you are saying is that not only does Alabama NOT get favorable holding calls they actually get SCREWED on holding calls?
Well, I just can't accept this.
Well, I just can't accept this.
Posted on 10/2/18 at 3:42 pm to Bench McElroy
quote:
Since 2012, Alabama has drawn a holding once every 260 plays. That is nearly 2.5 times the average
So Bama players cheat more than 2.5 times than the average team. Makes sense.
Posted on 10/2/18 at 3:48 pm to Bench McElroy
I felt sorry for Tim Williams the past couple of years. The dude would get straight mugged all game with no flags.
Posted on 10/2/18 at 4:08 pm to Bench McElroy
quote:There's your problem.
ESPN API
Posted on 10/2/18 at 4:10 pm to Bench McElroy
Any stats that don't fit the desired narrative are obviously fake. Duh.
Posted on 10/2/18 at 4:21 pm to Bench McElroy
Alabama doesn't get the hold calls as a way to even out the totals so it's not as blatantly obvious how screwed the other team was.
Posted on 10/2/18 at 4:33 pm to Bench McElroy
I ain't no statistical genius. And maybe I am missing something. But how are you measuring the number of times holding SHOULD have been called versus how many times it WAS called?
Posted on 10/2/18 at 5:17 pm to Bench McElroy
Remember the two championship games against Clemson. Somehow Clemson ran 184 plays against the best DL in football over a 2 year span. 0 holding penalties. Yet against the likes of Wake Forest and Troy- 10 holding penalties.
Go figure...
Go figure...
This post was edited on 10/2/18 at 7:41 pm
Posted on 10/2/18 at 5:34 pm to Bench McElroy
That's bullshirt. They get away with more holds than anyone
Posted on 10/2/18 at 6:44 pm to Bench McElroy
We even paid off the stats guy REC doin work!
Posted on 10/2/18 at 7:07 pm to Bench McElroy
Alabama gets called more because they hold more.
Some % of holds never get called. It's beneficial to hold more because you take advantage of the bias of officials to refrain from calling holding.
They know "you could call holding on every play" too, and this impacts their judgement.
Some % of holds never get called. It's beneficial to hold more because you take advantage of the bias of officials to refrain from calling holding.
They know "you could call holding on every play" too, and this impacts their judgement.
Posted on 10/2/18 at 7:22 pm to Bench McElroy
Too much money each week on Bama to cover the spread. Can’t have the public winning too much free money on the most popular team.
Posted on 10/2/18 at 8:27 pm to Bench McElroy
It is BECAUSE they hold more than anyone...and think they are entitled to do so without penalty
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