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Bama vs. Top 50 Opponents
Posted on 11/2/17 at 10:07 am
Posted on 11/2/17 at 10:07 am
Going by the ESPN FPI rankings, here are where Bama's opponents rank:
#22 Florida State
#39 Texas A&M
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#52 Tennessee
#64 Ole Miss
#65 Fresno State
#66 Arkansas
#67 Colorado State
#73 Vanderbilt
Obviously with the amount of talent Bama has amassed down there, they can pretty much show up and go through the motions and easily beat teams outside the Top 50.
Here are their stats vs. opponents ranked #51 through #73 (their 6 weakest opponents):
Offensive Yards/Game: 562.3
Offensive Yards/Play: 7.60
Defensive Yards/Game: 224.0
Defensive Yards/Play: 3.83
Out-gaining Opponents by 338.3 yards/game
Out-gaining Opponents by 3.77 yards/play
Offensive Points/Game: 48.8
Defensive Points Alllowed/Game: 8.7
So against these horrific opponents, Bama is literally manhandling them.... out-gaining them nearly 4 yards on every single play, and beating such opponents by more than 40 points per game. Total domination.
But how does Bama fair against Top 50 Opponents? There have only been two. One of those was against 2-5 Florida State who's Top 25 ranking in ESPN FPI is a bit suspect. The other was against #39 Texas A&M.... neither are juggernauts.
Offensive Yards/Game: 312.0
Offensive Yards/Play: 4.95
Defensive Yards/Game: 279.0
Defensive Yards/Play: 4.33
Out-gaining Opponents by 32.1 yards/game
Out-gaining Opponents by 0.62 yards/play
Offensive Points/Game: 25.5
Defensive Points Allowed/Game: 13.0
So against *tougher* opponents (relatively speaking of course), Bama is only out-gaining such opponents by around 30 yards/game... only about .6 yards/play, and they are only beating them on the scoreboard by an average of 12.5 points.
Credit the Bama defense also for forcing turnovers to help them win these games. Against Top 50 Opponents, Bama has won the turnover battle 6-1. Can that ratio continue?
Here are Bama's remaining Opponents according to ESPN FPI:
#21 LSU
#15 Mississippi State
#9 Auburn
... and then possibly #5 Georgia
... and then possibly two other Top 5 teams in the CFB Playoff
Should Bama be concerned? Other than a tune-up before the Iron Bowl against Mercer, the cupcakes have come and gone. In fact, the schedule is about to get way more difficult than the relatively "tough" teams they've already played in Florida State and Texas A&M.
Don't get me wrong, Bama has the talent to beat anyone in the country. But those stats against Top 50 opponents are a bit alarming, and in my mind they are red flags.
It's going to be an interesting November/December, that's for sure.
#22 Florida State
#39 Texas A&M
-----------------
#52 Tennessee
#64 Ole Miss
#65 Fresno State
#66 Arkansas
#67 Colorado State
#73 Vanderbilt
Obviously with the amount of talent Bama has amassed down there, they can pretty much show up and go through the motions and easily beat teams outside the Top 50.
Here are their stats vs. opponents ranked #51 through #73 (their 6 weakest opponents):
Offensive Yards/Game: 562.3
Offensive Yards/Play: 7.60
Defensive Yards/Game: 224.0
Defensive Yards/Play: 3.83
Out-gaining Opponents by 338.3 yards/game
Out-gaining Opponents by 3.77 yards/play
Offensive Points/Game: 48.8
Defensive Points Alllowed/Game: 8.7
So against these horrific opponents, Bama is literally manhandling them.... out-gaining them nearly 4 yards on every single play, and beating such opponents by more than 40 points per game. Total domination.
But how does Bama fair against Top 50 Opponents? There have only been two. One of those was against 2-5 Florida State who's Top 25 ranking in ESPN FPI is a bit suspect. The other was against #39 Texas A&M.... neither are juggernauts.
Offensive Yards/Game: 312.0
Offensive Yards/Play: 4.95
Defensive Yards/Game: 279.0
Defensive Yards/Play: 4.33
Out-gaining Opponents by 32.1 yards/game
Out-gaining Opponents by 0.62 yards/play
Offensive Points/Game: 25.5
Defensive Points Allowed/Game: 13.0
So against *tougher* opponents (relatively speaking of course), Bama is only out-gaining such opponents by around 30 yards/game... only about .6 yards/play, and they are only beating them on the scoreboard by an average of 12.5 points.
Credit the Bama defense also for forcing turnovers to help them win these games. Against Top 50 Opponents, Bama has won the turnover battle 6-1. Can that ratio continue?
Here are Bama's remaining Opponents according to ESPN FPI:
#21 LSU
#15 Mississippi State
#9 Auburn
... and then possibly #5 Georgia
... and then possibly two other Top 5 teams in the CFB Playoff
Should Bama be concerned? Other than a tune-up before the Iron Bowl against Mercer, the cupcakes have come and gone. In fact, the schedule is about to get way more difficult than the relatively "tough" teams they've already played in Florida State and Texas A&M.
Don't get me wrong, Bama has the talent to beat anyone in the country. But those stats against Top 50 opponents are a bit alarming, and in my mind they are red flags.
It's going to be an interesting November/December, that's for sure.
22
Posted on 11/2/17 at 10:10 am to BHMKyle
quote:
Should Bama be concerned?
Yes our track record under Saban says we can't beat good teams. And that Florida St season opener was every bit as tough as it was supposed to be against a team everybody thought would be in the playoff, obviously that game will skew statistics with only 2 current data points.
Posted on 11/2/17 at 10:11 am to BHMKyle
have an up vote sir, great post 
Posted on 11/2/17 at 10:11 am to BHMKyle
We're beating average/bad teams average YPP numbers by almost a full yard a game (if not more) on both offense and defense. So, even teams that aren't great, we are obliterating what other teams do to them........most of the time with our backups in the game after halftime.
I don't think you can tell whether or not we are the best team in the country yet, but taking red flags away from 2 games that we won by 17 and were leading by 15 with 0:18 seconds left and were never truly threatened in (both away from home) seems like searching for a narrative. We're pretty clearly a really good team. Whether we are a great team will be determined over the next month or so.
Also, most other analytically rankings have Fresno State and Colorado State ranked higher than most of our SEC opponents (F+ = Fresno State #25, Colorado State #38, Ole Miss #70, Texas A&M #72, Vanderbilt #84, Arkansas #99, Tennessee #103).
Also, on this
We are beating teams by about 40 points per game and it could be 60 if we so chose. So, we are clearly not doing this, even if we theoretically "could" (we couldn't).
I don't think you can tell whether or not we are the best team in the country yet, but taking red flags away from 2 games that we won by 17 and were leading by 15 with 0:18 seconds left and were never truly threatened in (both away from home) seems like searching for a narrative. We're pretty clearly a really good team. Whether we are a great team will be determined over the next month or so.
Also, most other analytically rankings have Fresno State and Colorado State ranked higher than most of our SEC opponents (F+ = Fresno State #25, Colorado State #38, Ole Miss #70, Texas A&M #72, Vanderbilt #84, Arkansas #99, Tennessee #103).
Also, on this
quote:
Obviously with the amount of talent Bama has amassed down there, they can pretty much show up and go through the motions and easily beat teams outside the Top 50.
We are beating teams by about 40 points per game and it could be 60 if we so chose. So, we are clearly not doing this, even if we theoretically "could" (we couldn't).
This post was edited on 11/2/17 at 10:25 am
Posted on 11/2/17 at 10:12 am to BHMKyle
I'm concerned. In my opinion, we still basically have no idea how good bama will be against tough competition. But we'll find out soon enough.
Posted on 11/2/17 at 10:14 am to BHMKyle
quote:
Should Bama be concerned?
Maybe, but not because of that tiny data set consisting of the FSU and A&M games. That's not enough from which to draw conclusions for me.
Bama, like any team, has weaknesses that if exploited by a great team playing great football will result in a loss.
Posted on 11/2/17 at 10:16 am to BHMKyle
So you’re saying there’s a chance?
Posted on 11/2/17 at 10:17 am to BHMKyle
quote:
and they are only beating them on the scoreboard by an average of 12.5 points
Only two touchdowns huh. I’ll be damned.
Posted on 11/2/17 at 10:28 am to BHMKyle
quote:
#22 Florida State
Posted on 11/2/17 at 10:39 am to BHMKyle
This is an awful lot of work just to say Bama sucks and hasn't played anyone. Nice troll, but Bama can't, and won't, lose!!!
This post was edited on 11/2/17 at 10:42 am
Posted on 11/2/17 at 10:44 am to BHMKyle
It's over. Fire Saban.
Posted on 11/2/17 at 10:46 am to BHMKyle
That happens when you can't pass the ball. When a team limits our running game to 200-250 yards we are still only good for 100 yards or so through the air. Luckily most teams can't stop us on the ground and we have a really good defense.
Posted on 11/2/17 at 10:57 am to bigpapamac
quote:
Yes our track record under Saban says we can't beat good teams.
You don't have to get defensive if you don't like reading facts.
No one said Saban has a history of not beating good teams. That's just the thing. The offensive numbers against both Florida State and Texas A&M were no where close to typical numbers put up by Alabama in the Saban era against similar type teams.
Last season, Bama played 7 opponents ranked in the Final AP Top 25 (which included teams ranked #1, #3, and #4) in the final rankings). In those games, Bama's offense averaged over 422 yards per game, and an astounding 6.32 yards per play. In no single game did Bama average fewer then 5.0 yards per play. Bama's worst outing offensively against Top 25 teams last season (in terms of yards/play) was against Washington, in which Bama averaged 5.09 yards each play.
Now contrast that to this season, and against Top 50 teams.... neither of which will likely finish int the AP Top 25... Bama's offense is averaging just 4.95 yards/play on offense.... no where close to it's 6.32 yards/play average last season against Top 25 teams.
Yes, the sample is small with just two opponents. But we're also talking about 2 opponents that will NOT finish ranked in the Top 25 this season, one of which likely won't make a bowl.
Things may turn around after this week, but so far if you can't see red flags waving, you're blind.
Posted on 11/2/17 at 11:01 am to Giant Leaf
It's almost as if FSU wasn't a top ranked team before we broke their quarterback.
This post was edited on 11/2/17 at 11:01 am
Posted on 11/2/17 at 11:06 am to BHMKyle
quote:
Now contrast that to this season, and against Top 50 teams.... neither of which will likely finish int the AP Top 25... Bama's offense is averaging just 4.95 yards/play on offense.... no where close to it's 6.32 yards/play average last season against Top 25 teams.
This is why it being a small sample size is a problem. You are using an "average", when in reality the only game that was really an offensive problem was FSU. However, when the sample is 2.......
We averaged 4.48 YPP vs Florida State. It was an ugly offensive performance. Then, when we we went up 17 and it was clear they had no shot to score on offense, we went into a total shell and ran the football for the last 1.5 quarters. It was the first game with a new OC against an athletic defense in the very first game of the year. It was not a very good outing. And, even in that one, we had 221 yards and 5.14 YPP through the time we went up 21-7 in the 3rd. We had 48 yards on 2.18 YPP after we went up by 14 pts.
We averaged 5.38 YPP vs Texas A&M. Our yardage outputs vs Chavis going back to 2009.
2017 - 5.38 YPP
2016 - 5.50 YPP
2015 - 5.66 YPP
2014 - 4.20 YPP
2013 - 6.00 YPP
2012 - 6.37 YPP
2011 - 4.92 YPP
2011 - 5.57 YPP
2010 - 5.00 YPP
2009 - 6.28 YPP
Chavis, going back to his LSU days, has generally schemed our general run first philosophy pretty well. We had 315 yards on 6.7 YPP 5 minutes into the 3rd quarter up 24-3. Then, things got sideways and we had a bad quarter. We then finished the game on a long drive to get a FG to seal it.
Long story short, I'm not going to be terrified about future games based on those 2. If we struggle against LSU this weekend? Definitely.
quote:
Bama's worst outing offensively against Top 25 teams last season (in terms of yards/play) was against Washington, in which Bama averaged 5.09 yards each play.
Not true - we averaged 4.61 YPP vs LSU.
This post was edited on 11/2/17 at 11:22 am
Posted on 11/2/17 at 11:22 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
We're beating average/bad teams average YPP numbers by almost a full yard a game (if not more) on both offense and defense.
Yes, as I mentioned in the OP. Bama is destroying horrible opponents in cruel fashion. No one disputes that.
quote:
We're pretty clearly a really good team.
As I said in the OP.
quote:
taking red flags away from 2 games that we won by 17 and were leading by 15 with 0:18 seconds left and were never truly threatened in (both away from home) seems like searching for a narrative.
No one is searching for a narrative.
Bama's scant 269 yards of total offense against Florida State were a bit eye-raising at the time, but any sane person chalked it up to 1) First game rust... 2) not doing anything fancy if you didn't have to... 3) playing a team that at the time appeared to be a Top 5 team in the country.
The only problem is that as time has gone on, its obvious Florida State is and never was worthy of their preseason ranking. The legend of Preseason Francois is one of the most over-hyped narratives of the football season thus far. The kid was a middle-of-the-pack ACC QB last season.... there were easily 5, 6, maybe even 7 QBs better than him in his own conference last year. Losing Francois does not explain why Florida State has a porous O-line, a horrific running game, and a statistically bad defense.
Florida State is 2-5. If not for late go-ahead touchdowns against Wake Forest (with 0:53 left in the game) and against Duke (with 8:23 left in the game), they could very well be 0-7. Teams that are THAT bad didn't get THAT bad simply because their QB went down in Week 1. Florida State was never close to the team they were hyped to be in the preseason.
Still, you can chalk up Bama's low offensive productivity against the Seminoles as a rusty Week 1 performance.
But then there is the Texas A&M game. Against Power 5 Opponents, here are how Texas A&M's opponents' offenses have fared against them this year:
Texas A&M Opponents' Yards/Play:
6.60- UCLA
6.34- Arkansas
5.45- Florida
5.37- Alabama
5.26- South Carolina
5.05- Mississippi State
Is it not a bit concerning that Florida and Arkansas had more success moving the ball per play against Texas A&M than Bama did?
Texas A&M Opponents Yards/Game:
554- UCLA
457- Arkansas
371- Florida
369- Mississippi State
355- Alabama
279- South Carolina
Again, considering what other opponents have done against the Texas A&M Defense, Bama's lack of productivity against the Aggies is a bit alarming. When it's coupled with what happened in the Florida State game, you realize that its not really a huge coincidence.
Bama has played 2 "decent" opponents; Bama's offense struggled in both games.
Maybe this weekend will be different. I expect Bama to beat LSU. The talent and coaching are obviously there at Bama to beat every single team in the country. In fact, it shouldn't even be close. But considering neither Florida State or Texas A&M are even close to being "great" teams, any reasonable person should at least be able to admit that Bama's offense against decent teams this year has been a bit lackluster.
Posted on 11/2/17 at 11:23 am to BHMKyle
Weird coming to the SECr and finding an intellectually sound post with lots of good data.
Wish this happened more.
Wish this happened more.
Posted on 11/2/17 at 11:24 am to BHMKyle
We were at 5.14 YPP vs FSU until we went up 14 pts in the 3rd.
We were at 6.17 YPP vs Texas A&M before we went up 21 pts in the 3rd.
No, I'm not concerned. If we come out and struggle to put together drives against LSU and State? Yea, I'll start being a bit concerned. But 2 games in which we put together lots of good drives and had solid offensive output (especially A&M) while jumping out to big leads are not going to make me clutch my pearls.
Georgia has played 1 defense that is in the Top 50 in YPP vs the P5, Notre Dame (#21). They averaged 4.53 YPP against them, 0.21 less than ND's average YPP against P5 teams. Temple, Boston College, Michigan State and USC averaged more YPP than Georgia did.
Alabama has played 1 defense that is in the Top 50 in YPP vs the P5, Florida State (#30). We averaged 4.48 YPP against them, 0.64 less than FSU's average YPP against P5 teams. NC State, Wake Forest, Miami, Duke and Louisville averaged more YPP than Alabama did.
Both were early season games and slow moving defensive slugfests.
Does that concern you? It doesn't/wouldn't concern me.
We were at 6.17 YPP vs Texas A&M before we went up 21 pts in the 3rd.
No, I'm not concerned. If we come out and struggle to put together drives against LSU and State? Yea, I'll start being a bit concerned. But 2 games in which we put together lots of good drives and had solid offensive output (especially A&M) while jumping out to big leads are not going to make me clutch my pearls.
Georgia has played 1 defense that is in the Top 50 in YPP vs the P5, Notre Dame (#21). They averaged 4.53 YPP against them, 0.21 less than ND's average YPP against P5 teams. Temple, Boston College, Michigan State and USC averaged more YPP than Georgia did.
Alabama has played 1 defense that is in the Top 50 in YPP vs the P5, Florida State (#30). We averaged 4.48 YPP against them, 0.64 less than FSU's average YPP against P5 teams. NC State, Wake Forest, Miami, Duke and Louisville averaged more YPP than Alabama did.
Both were early season games and slow moving defensive slugfests.
Does that concern you? It doesn't/wouldn't concern me.
This post was edited on 11/2/17 at 11:40 am
Posted on 11/2/17 at 11:24 am to BHMKyle
quote:
#22 Florida State
Posted on 11/2/17 at 11:39 am to WW
quote:
It's almost as if FSU wasn't a top ranked team before we broke their quarterback.
Here it is... the Legend of Deondre Francois.
2016 ACC Average Passing Yards/Game:
1. Deshaun Watson, Clemson- 306.2
2. Eric Dungey, Syracuse- 297.7
3. Mitch Trubinsky, N. Carolina- 288.3
4. Lamar Jackson, Louisville- 272.5
5. Brad Kaaya, Miami- 271.7
6. Deondre Francois, Florida State- 257.7
7. Jerod Evans, Virginia Tech- 253.7
2016 ACC QB Rating:
1. Nathan Peterman, Pittsburgh- 163.37
2. Mitch Trubinsky, N. Carolina- 157.91
3. Jerod Evans, Virginia Tech- 153.1
4. Deshaun Watson, Clemson- 151.15
5. Brad Kaaya, Miami- 150.31
6. Lamar Jackson, Louisville- 148.82
7. Deondre Francois, Florida State- 142.1
8. Eric Dungey, Syracuse- 138.18
Touchdown Passes
1. Deshaun Watson, Clemson- 41
2. Mitch Trubinsky, N. Carolina- 30
2. Lamar Jackson, Louisville- 30
4. Jerod Evans, Virginia Tech- 29
5. Nathan Peterman, Pittsburgh- 27
5. Brad Kaaya, Miami- 27
7. Kurt Benkert, Virginia- 21
8. Deondre Francois, Florida State- 20
I'm sorry, but losing a QB who was 6th in the ACC in Passing Yards... 7th in QB Rating... 8th in Touchdown Passes... and 9th in Completion Percentage does not derail a team from Preseason #3 to a losing record and no bowl game.
Francois has never been good enough for Florida State to get the benefit of the doubt that had he stayed healthy, things would have been much different this year.
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