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Sev09's CFB Computer Rankings - Week 10 (all 13[1] teams)

Posted on 10/30/17 at 2:59 pm
Posted by Sev09
Nantucket
Member since Feb 2011
15807 posts
Posted on 10/30/17 at 2:59 pm
Some of y'all know I have my own computer power rankings that I crunch every week. It works by comparing team statistics/matchups, and places each team in a hypothetical matchup with every other team in the FBS. This also means that, at the core of the system is a system similar to what Vegas uses to form the starting point of Vegas lines. It also factors in strength of schedule played thus far.

If y'all would like to know the Vegas spreads of any hypothetical matchups, or a preview of any future games, let me know. I'd be happy to explain anything.

Here's the results of this week:

1.) Ohio St. (79.86)
2.) Alabama (79.61)
3.) Penn St. (77.95)
4.) Notre Dame (77.68)
______________________
5.) UCF (76.80)
6.) Clemson (76.39)
7.) Georgia (75.92)
8.) Wisconsin (74.78)
9.) Oklahoma St. (72.11)
10.) Oklahoma (70.92)
11.) TCU (69.39)
12.) Southern California (69.05)
13.) Memphis (68.99)
14.) Washington (68.14)
15.) Miami (FL) (66.97)
16.) Mississippi St. (66.87)
17.) NC State (65.36)
18.) San Diego St. (64.97)
19.) Arizona (64.95)
20.) Auburn (63.54)
21.) Virginia Tech (63.04)
22.) Northwestern (63.00)
23.) Stanford (62.27)
24.) LSU (62.16)
25.) Fla. Atlantic (62.12)
26.) SMU (62.01)
27.) Navy (61.98)
28.) Boise St. (61.75)
29.) Michigan St. (61.29)
30.) Toledo (61.00)
31.) UCLA (60.88)
32.) Washington St. (60.83)
33.) Michigan (59.75)
34.) Boston College (59.64)
35.) South Carolina (59.35)
36.) Arizona St. (58.83)
37.) Iowa (58.65)
38.) Oregon (58.60)
39.) Houston (58.51)
40.) South Fla. (58.25)
41.) Iowa St. (58.10)
42.) Army West Point (58.08)
43.) Georgia Tech (57.54)
44.) North Texas (57.48)
45.) Fresno St. (57.45)
46.) Louisville (57.21)
47.) Texas A&M (57.10)
48.) Colorado St. (56.94)
49.) Kentucky (56.92)
50.) Wake Forest (56.71)
51.) Troy (56.59)
52.) Texas Tech (56.20)
53.) West Virginia (56.12)
54.) Arkansas St. (55.90)
55.) Ohio (54.92)
56.) Maryland (54.43)
57.) Syracuse (53.97)
58.) Appalachian St. (53.31)
59.) Marshall (53.27)
59.) Texas (53.27)
61.) Nebraska (53.25)
62.) Northern Ill. (52.99)
63.) Colorado (52.53)
64.) Tulane (52.11)
65.) Florida (51.76)
66.) Air Force (51.73)
67.) Western Mich. (51.07)
68.) Arkansas (50.72)
69.) UTSA (50.45)
70.) Southern Miss. (49.89)
71.) Purdue (49.88)
72.) Akron (49.81)
73.) California (49.79)
74.) Tennessee (48.74)
75.) Pittsburgh (48.71)
76.) Missouri (48.68)
77.) Utah (48.11)
78.) Indiana (47.45)
79.) Cincinnati (47.42)
80.) FIU (47.14)
80.) Louisiana Tech (47.14)
82.) Georgia St. (46.97)
83.) Utah St. (46.66)
83.) UAB (46.66)
85.) Virginia (46.12)
85.) Wyoming (46.12)
87.) Vanderbilt (45.71)
88.) Ole Miss (45.65)

89.) Florida St. (45.63)
90.) Central Mich. (45.36)
91.) Tulsa (45.22)
92.) Middle Tenn. (44.97)
93.) Rutgers (44.89)
94.) Kansas St. (44.67)
95.) Buffalo (44.54)
96.) Eastern Mich. (44.06)
97.) New Mexico St. (43.93)
98.) Duke (43.63)
99.) Minnesota (43.36)
100.) UConn (42.84)
101.) Western Ky. (42.47)
102.) UNLV (42.43)
103.) Temple (42.16)
104.) New Mexico (41.96)
105.) Massachusetts (41.52)
106.) South Ala. (41.29)
107.) Miami (OH) (40.87)
108.) La.-Monroe (40.62)
109.) North Carolina (39.50)
110.) Nevada (39.01)
111.) Hawaii (38.83)
112.) Old Dominion (38.56)
113.) East Carolina (38.45)
114.) Kent St. (38.10)
115.) BYU (38.06)
116.) Illinois (37.68)
117.) Louisiana (37.25)
118.) Oregon St. (36.58)
119.) Idaho (36.17)
120.) Kansas (35.68)
121.) Texas St. (34.27)
122.) Ball St. (33.54)
122.) Baylor (33.54)
124.) Rice (31.91)
125.) Bowling Green (31.06)
126.) UTEP (29.88)
127.) Coastal Caro. (29.52)
128.) Liberty (29.41)
129.) Charlotte (27.90) (Reclassifying)
130.) San Jose St. (25.74)
131.) Ga. Southern (24.07)
This post was edited on 10/30/17 at 3:00 pm
Posted by GameCocky88
Mount Pleasant, SC
Member since Dec 2015
4837 posts
Posted on 10/30/17 at 3:02 pm to
quote:

2.) Alabama (79.61)
7.) Georgia (75.92)
16.) Mississippi St. (66.87)
20.) Auburn (63.54)
24.) LSU (62.16)
35.) South Carolina (59.35)



Big 6. No explanation necessary
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
105802 posts
Posted on 10/30/17 at 3:03 pm to
That's pretty cool Sev, thanks for sharing.

I have to ask, what do you think causes Georgia to be at #7? Everything else looks really good, that one just stuck out to me and I'm curious to see if there is some glaring piece of their profile I've been missing.
This post was edited on 10/30/17 at 3:04 pm
Posted by Vecchio Cane
Ivory Tower
Member since Jul 2016
18639 posts
Posted on 10/30/17 at 3:09 pm to
quote:

2.) Alabama (79.61)7.) Georgia (75.92) 14.) Mississippi St. (66.87) 20.) Auburn (63.54) 24.) LSU (62.16) 25.)(59.64) 35.) South Carolina (59.35) 47.) Texas A&M (57.10) Kentucky (56.92) (52.11) 65.) Florida (51.76) (49.79) 74.) Tennessee (48.74) 76.) Missouri (48.68) 87.) Vanderbilt (45.71) 88.) Ole Miss (45.65)


From these rankings, I'd say that swarthiness and girth are major components of your numerical analysis
Posted by Sev09
Nantucket
Member since Feb 2011
15807 posts
Posted on 10/30/17 at 3:10 pm to
quote:

I have to ask, what do you think causes Georgia to be at #7? Everything else looks really good, that one just stuck out to me and I'm curious to see if there is some glaring piece of their profile I've been missing.


They have an Offense Power Index that's hurting them - 69.25. Meanwhile, Ohio St. has an OPI of 82.34. Georgia is also projected to lose to Auburn by 1.5 points. Super tight game! That projected loss weighs them down slightly, as well. All that said, it's still a pretty slim margin up at the top.
Posted by skrayper
21-0 Asterisk Drive
Member since Nov 2012
34499 posts
Posted on 10/30/17 at 3:11 pm to
Not sure of this logic...

quote:

1.) Ohio St. (79.86)
2.) Alabama (79.61)


quote:

4.) Notre Dame (77.68)

quote:

7.) Georgia (75.92)
This post was edited on 10/30/17 at 3:12 pm
Posted by SummerOfGeorge
Member since Jul 2013
105802 posts
Posted on 10/30/17 at 3:12 pm to
quote:

Georgia is also projected to lose to Auburn by 1.5 points. Super tight game! That projected loss weighs them down slightly, as well. All that said, it's still a pretty slim margin up at the top.


Ah, that makes sense. Projecting out into the future.

Yea, it looks like most of the Top 7 are all pretty even, which seems about right given CFB this year.
Posted by DawgsLife
Ellijay, Ga.
Member since Jun 2013
61838 posts
Posted on 10/30/17 at 3:19 pm to
quote:

Georgia is also projected to lose to Auburn by 1.5 points.


how accurate have the results been up until now? I mean, did it project UGA to beat ND, for instance?
Posted by Sev09
Nantucket
Member since Feb 2011
15807 posts
Posted on 10/30/17 at 3:20 pm to
quote:

Not sure of this logic... quote: 1.) Ohio St. (79.86) 2.) Alabama (79.61) quote: 4.) Notre Dame (77.68) quote: 7.) Georgia (75.92)


SOS for these:
1.) Notre Dame (12.87)
2.) Ohio St. (12.61)
3.) Georgia (10.99)
4.) Alabama (10.67)

Alabama's SOS is hurting them. Both Alabama and LSU should move up in the rankings, regardless of outcome after this weekend.
Posted by Sev09
Nantucket
Member since Feb 2011
15807 posts
Posted on 10/30/17 at 3:24 pm to
quote:

how accurate have the results been up until now? I mean, did it project UGA to beat ND, for instance?


Usually in the ball-park. The lines are generally pretty close to Vegas lines.

The UGA - Notre Dame game was tricky to predict, as a computer system, because it so early in the season without much current-year data to go on. I had Notre Dame -4.5 in that game. Vegas had it Notre Dame -6.5.

So based on that discrepancy, I would have taken Georgia +6.5, which would have been a vegas win. I didn't have an outright win, though.
Posted by DawgsLife
Ellijay, Ga.
Member since Jun 2013
61838 posts
Posted on 10/30/17 at 3:29 pm to
quote:

The UGA - Notre Dame game was tricky to predict, as a computer system, because it so early in the season without much current-year data to go on. I had Notre Dame -4.5 in that game. Vegas had it Notre Dame -6.5.



That's true and a good point. taht's a lot of work. Thanks for sharing the results.
Posted by rockiee
Sugar Land, TX
Member since Jan 2015
28553 posts
Posted on 10/30/17 at 3:32 pm to
quote:


The UGA - Notre Dame game was tricky to predict, as a computer system, because it so early in the season without much current-year data to go on.


That is why this time of the year these results are more interesting to look at
Posted by skrayper
21-0 Asterisk Drive
Member since Nov 2012
34499 posts
Posted on 10/30/17 at 3:39 pm to
quote:

SOS for these:
1.) Notre Dame (12.87)
2.) Ohio St. (12.61)
3.) Georgia (10.99)
4.) Alabama (10.67)


Well, while the Alabama one is more of an... "Huh, okay" the Notre Dame over UGA when:
UGA is undefeated and ND is not
UGA won the head-to-head match-up
ND's loss is at home

I'm curious to see those weights, as it makes it apparent that SOS > losing. I'll give OSU's SOS trumping Alabama's 1 less loss, but I have a hard time seeing ND's SOS > 3x factors over UGA.
Posted by MeatPants
Member since Nov 2015
8905 posts
Posted on 10/30/17 at 3:41 pm to
UCF favored over gerogia.

Computers can frick off and that's why the BCS was an abomination to human civilization

Thank god for the playoff
Posted by PlaymakerUGA
Naples, Fl
Member since Oct 2017
44 posts
Posted on 10/30/17 at 3:43 pm to
Wow, you put some time & brain power into this. Kudos and well done. With that said, I stopped reading at UCF being #5
Posted by WG_Dawg
Member since Jun 2004
89671 posts
Posted on 10/30/17 at 3:43 pm to
quote:

That projected loss weighs them down slightly,


good thing in the real world teams are based on what's actually happened instead of dropping them for potential future hypothetical losses.
Posted by TonyMontana
Member since Jul 2017
1169 posts
Posted on 10/30/17 at 3:48 pm to
Am I reading it right? Bama would be around -9 at MSU if they played this week?
This post was edited on 10/30/17 at 3:50 pm
Posted by AgCoug
Houston
Member since Jan 2014
6542 posts
Posted on 10/30/17 at 4:26 pm to
Hmm. We suck and all, but I'm sure we could beat the Mean Green of North Texas. Pretty sure at least.
Posted by Sev09
Nantucket
Member since Feb 2011
15807 posts
Posted on 10/30/17 at 10:31 pm to
quote:

UCF favored over gerogia


UCF isn’t favored over Georgia... if you want me to run the hypothetical Vegas line for that, I can do that. But the rankings don’t mean they would beat all teams below them.
Posted by Sev09
Nantucket
Member since Feb 2011
15807 posts
Posted on 10/30/17 at 10:32 pm to
quote:

Am I reading it right? Bama would be around -9 at MSU if they played this week?


Thanks for asking. No, the difference between the two index values doesn’t necessarily mean they’ll be favored by that much. I’ll pull that matchup for you real quick, though.

ETA: Bama -15
This post was edited on 10/30/17 at 10:44 pm
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