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re: Predicted SEC Basketball records according to warrennolan.com
Posted on 12/22/16 at 7:56 am to Hawgeye
Posted on 12/22/16 at 7:56 am to Hawgeye
quote:
Texas will be a good team by seasons end. They have a lot of young guys, but are really talented. They just beat a decent UAB team by 36 points. They'll be in the mix for an NCAA bid in the Big 12.
Oklahoma isn't bad. They have close losses to quality teams and beat Clemson. Like Texas, they're young and will get better as the season moves along. Again, they could be in the mix for an NCAA bid.
The problem is that the Big 12 is not a forgiving league at all, it's #1 again in the metrics. If a team struggles against worse non conference teams because they are young and inexperienced what makes you think they will all of a sudden turn it around in conference play in the best conference
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Posted on 12/22/16 at 8:05 am to goldennugget
quote:
The problem is that the Big 12 is not a forgiving league at all, it's #1 again in the metrics. If a team struggles against worse non conference teams because they are young and inexperienced what makes you think they will all of a sudden turn it around in conference play in the best conference
Because the Big 12 will get 7-8 teams in the tourney again this year. Any win against a tourney team is going to be a quality win.
I feel like OU and Texas are better than Iowa State, Kansas State, and Texas Tech. Just based on that alone if they both finish above those three teams, they will finish 6th and 7th in the league and get an NCAA bid.
I also think TCU is a bit overrated right now. I think they will actually finish in that 6th to 7th range in the Big 12. Two years ago TCU started the season 14-1 and ended up winning just 2 games in league play. If that is the case and OU and Texas improve, like I think they will, then a 5th and 6th place type finish is likely for both of them. Their RPI's will sky rocket just by the Big 12 schedule.
Posted on 12/22/16 at 8:10 am to Hawgeye
quote:
Games against Non D1 teams do not count. So the Morehouse win isn't factored in your record.
So he has us beating Oakland and Texas? That would strengthen our resume even more. If we are beating Texas according to this nut, then we are going better then 10-8 in conference, wihich I don't see happening. According to this dumbass, we are a lock in the tournament.
As for our RPI, we actually have a tough SoS right now according to RPI and we play UK, USC and UF twice this year in the SEC
Posted on 12/22/16 at 8:22 am to AUbagman
quote:
AUbagman
You're a huge homer
Ole Miss isn't going 12-6 in SEC play... We struggle to defend the perimeter and the 3 point shot kills road teams in college basketball.
Posted on 12/22/16 at 8:25 am to IT_Dawg
Not really on Oakland so much. He has them around .500 for the season.
You're not a lock with his predicted 46 RPI. Thats why I listed UGA on the bubble with AU. Nothing about Georgia is a lock. How you interpret that out of what I posted is your issue.
Georgia plays Kentucky x2, Florida x2, South Carolina x2, Auburn x2, Arkansas, all in league play, all with solid RPI's. Add those games to playing Kansas, Marquette, and Clemson OOC and its a nice schedule that will boost UGA's chances of getting in the big dance with just a mediocre record.
quote:
According to this dumbass, we are a lock in the tournament.
You're not a lock with his predicted 46 RPI. Thats why I listed UGA on the bubble with AU. Nothing about Georgia is a lock. How you interpret that out of what I posted is your issue.
quote:
As for our RPI, we actually have a tough SoS right now according to RPI and we play UK, USC and UF twice this year in the SEC
Georgia plays Kentucky x2, Florida x2, South Carolina x2, Auburn x2, Arkansas, all in league play, all with solid RPI's. Add those games to playing Kansas, Marquette, and Clemson OOC and its a nice schedule that will boost UGA's chances of getting in the big dance with just a mediocre record.
Posted on 12/22/16 at 8:30 am to reggierayreb
I think we go 10-8 or 11-7. I feel like this team is NIT bound unless they fix a lot of things in the next week.
Posted on 12/22/16 at 8:37 am to Hawgeye
Auburn dont lose to no Big12 teams. We curbstomping both UConn and TCU bish
Posted on 12/22/16 at 8:38 am to Hawgeye
quote:
I also think TCU is a bit overrated right now. I think they will actually finish in that 6th to 7th range in the Big 12. Two years ago TCU started the season 14-1 and ended up winning just 2 games in league play. If that is the case and OU and Texas improve, like I think they will, then a 5th and 6th place type finish is likely for both of them. Their RPI's will sky rocket just by the Big 12 schedule.
I actually think they are this year's Texas Tech. Led by 4 seniors, coaching change that has them ultra confident.
Posted on 12/22/16 at 8:41 am to goldennugget
quote:
I actually think they are this year's Texas Tech. Led by 4 seniors, coaching change that has them ultra confident.
They just really don't have any good wins outside of Arkansas State though. The best team they've played is SMU, and they lost that game by 15 points. I just don't see it with them going forward once they get into Big 12 play.
Posted on 12/22/16 at 9:52 am to Hawgeye
Here are the projections from KenPom
Kentucky 16-2
Florida 13-5
South Carolina 13-5
Texas A&M 11-7
Arkansas 10-8
Georgia 9-9
Alabama 8-10
Tennessee 8-10
Auburn 7-11
Ole Miss 7-11
LSU 7-11
Vanderbilt 7-11
Mississippi State 6-12
Missouri 4-14
Kentucky 16-2
Florida 13-5
South Carolina 13-5
Texas A&M 11-7
Arkansas 10-8
Georgia 9-9
Alabama 8-10
Tennessee 8-10
Auburn 7-11
Ole Miss 7-11
LSU 7-11
Vanderbilt 7-11
Mississippi State 6-12
Missouri 4-14
Posted on 12/22/16 at 9:58 am to Nukeese
quote:
Tennessee will not be 10-20 at seasons end, the SEC as a whole has looked weak and we've played well against a stacked OOC (albeit not winning anything of note)
Correct. Warren Nolan's predictor is always very wonky, even in to January and February. Parrish was talking about that several years ago in February when bubble talk came up. RPI Forecast is the way to go if you are interested in RPI info/projecting it forward.
It is not that relevant anymore though it doesn't seem outside of the committee using it to judge the schedule and good wins/bad losses.
Posted on 12/22/16 at 10:09 am to Hawgeye
quote:
Arkansas: 24-7, 13-5 RPI 25
i would do cartwheels if we end with that record. i don't really care too much the level of opponents because in years past that didn't matter anyway- we'd play piss poor against piss poor teams and play good against good teams. this would show a level of consistent play that we haven't had in a while (somewhat excluding the 14-15 season which wasn't bad but not that 'good' imo).
Posted on 12/22/16 at 10:25 am to volfan30
quote:
Arkansas 10-8
I would expect something in the middle of this and 13-5. I would be pleasantly surprised if we win 13 games in league play.
Posted on 12/22/16 at 10:59 am to piggilicious
That is the same exact regular season record as the 14-15 season though
Posted on 12/22/16 at 11:01 am to reggierayreb
quote:
You're a huge homer
A huge homer? I suppose we'll see, but it's been a decade since I have murmured the possibility of AU making the tournament. I'd honestly say I'm usually pessimistic and a realist.
This post was edited on 12/22/16 at 11:02 am
Posted on 12/22/16 at 11:10 am to Hawgeye
Here's teamrankings.com
Team - conf win/loss - ovr win/loss
Kentucky 15.8 2.2---- 26.5 4.5
Florida 13.5 4.5---- 23.2 7.8
S Carolina 11.2 6.8---- 21.8 9.2
Texas A&M 10.4 7.6---- 18.4 11.6
Arkansas 10.0 8.0---- 21.1 9.9
Auburn 9.0 9.0---- 18.6 12.4
Alabama 8.6 9.4---- 15.6 14.4
Georgia 8.1 9.9---- 17.2 13.8
Vanderbilt 7.6 10.4---- 14.0 17.0
Tennessee 7.2 10.8---- 14.1 16.9
Mississippi 7.0 11.0---- 16.0 15.0
LSU 6.4 11.6---- 14.7 15.3
Miss State 6.4 11.6---- 15.1 14.9
Missouri 4.7 13.3---- 10.5 19.5
Team - conf win/loss - ovr win/loss
Kentucky 15.8 2.2---- 26.5 4.5
Florida 13.5 4.5---- 23.2 7.8
S Carolina 11.2 6.8---- 21.8 9.2
Texas A&M 10.4 7.6---- 18.4 11.6
Arkansas 10.0 8.0---- 21.1 9.9
Auburn 9.0 9.0---- 18.6 12.4
Alabama 8.6 9.4---- 15.6 14.4
Georgia 8.1 9.9---- 17.2 13.8
Vanderbilt 7.6 10.4---- 14.0 17.0
Tennessee 7.2 10.8---- 14.1 16.9
Mississippi 7.0 11.0---- 16.0 15.0
LSU 6.4 11.6---- 14.7 15.3
Miss State 6.4 11.6---- 15.1 14.9
Missouri 4.7 13.3---- 10.5 19.5
Posted on 12/22/16 at 11:23 am to LittleRockHog501
quote:
That is the same exact regular season record as the 14-15 season though
i thought we lost just a couple more that season but i could very well be wrong. i loved that team and expected more which was truly my disappointment with them. plus, i never promised i was 100% rational.
Posted on 12/22/16 at 11:53 am to lowspark12
quote:
The league is more evenly balanced than years past.... there's not a ton of separation between 2 through 12. State and Mizzou are junk... But everybody else is pretty even (except for UK).
Yeah, I tend to agree.
What will hurt the amount of overall NCAA bids is teams like Tennessee and Alabama that haven't looked great in non-conference play will likely get a couple of more wins in conference play than what warrennolan predicts (especially at home) and end up closer to .500, taking couple of wins away from bubble teams.
Not sure anyone outside of Kentucky will really be a consistently good enough to even go 5-3 on the road and avoid 1 or 2 home losses.
This post was edited on 12/22/16 at 11:57 am
Posted on 12/22/16 at 12:20 pm to Hawgeye
What predictor does nolan use? Wondering because both KenPom and Sagarin's predictor hate Ole Miss and LSU (Sagarin has Ole Miss going 7-11 and LSU 6-12). Nolan is way lower on A&M than every site I've seen.
Also -- no way an 18-12 LSU has an RPI of 108, a 20-11 Auburn has an RPI of 90, or a 21-10 Ole Miss has an RPI of 66.
Also -- no way an 18-12 LSU has an RPI of 108, a 20-11 Auburn has an RPI of 90, or a 21-10 Ole Miss has an RPI of 66.
Posted on 12/22/16 at 12:42 pm to Hawgeye
quote:OU and Texas are both around .500. If they're finishing 6th or 7th in a 10 team conference, they might be below .500 on the season.
I feel like OU and Texas are better than Iowa State, Kansas State, and Texas Tech.
They're not tournament teams unless they go 12-6ish in Big XII play. And I don't know what you've seen from either team to lead to believe that either team is capable of that. Maybe Texas has the talent to do it. Oklahoma hasn't shown shite.
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