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S&P Projections for this week
Posted on 10/20/16 at 10:00 am
Posted on 10/20/16 at 10:00 am
Alabama 35.2, Texas A&M 21.5
Auburn 36.9, Arkansas 21.8
LSU 32.8, Ole Miss, 28.4
Mississippi St. 28.3, Kentucky 26.0
Percentage Chance of winning outright:
80.9%- Auburn
78.6%- Alabama
60.1%- LSU
55.3%- Mississippi St.
4
Posted on 10/20/16 at 10:02 am to BHMKyle
37-21. Meh. Should beat em worse. I'd be surprised to give up 21.
This post was edited on 10/20/16 at 10:04 am
Posted on 10/20/16 at 10:02 am to BHMKyle
I"m not talking crap at all, but I just don't understand the AU/Ark and LSU/OM lines and predictions. Admittedly I haven't watched much of those teams but for AU to be favored by THAT much (no issue with them being favored, just the margin) and LSU favored over ole miss jsut seems kinda strange.
Posted on 10/20/16 at 10:04 am to WG_Dawg
quote:Ole Miss run defense is comparable to a JV team.
LSU favored over ole miss jsut seems kinda strange.
Posted on 10/20/16 at 10:15 am to WG_Dawg
quote:
I'm not talking crap at all, but I just don't understand the AU/Ark
At first I thought the same thing. But then I started digging into the stats, and I see why the line is where it is.
It probably has to do with Arkansas having the worst Rushing Defense in the SEC (5.57 yards per play) matched up against Auburn who has one of the better rushing offenses in the country.
Plus, when you dig in to see the teams Arkansas has faced, there is no excuse for their run defense to be so bad. Of their 7 opponents, only 2 have a rushing offense ranked in the Top 70, nationally.
And as strong as the Arkansas offense has looked this season, they've only faced one solid defense (#5 Alabama). Their other FBS opponents rank #84, #95, #98, #104, and #124 in total defense.
Statistically, it just appears to be a mismatch.
Posted on 10/20/16 at 10:24 am to BHMKyle
quote:
80.9%- Auburn
Ouch
Posted on 10/20/16 at 10:25 am to BHMKyle
How sad is it when Alabama has a higher chance of beating the #6 team in the country than MSU has of beating Kentucky?
Sheesh.
Sheesh.
Posted on 10/20/16 at 10:25 am to auzach91
quote:
37-21. Meh. Should beat em worse. I'd be surprised to give up 21.
I'd be surprised if we scored 37. Even on that weak arse D
Posted on 10/20/16 at 10:49 am to Weagle25
The stats wont matter on the field. Auburn will not score enough to win. They will however run the ball well between the 20's and have a few runs of 20 yards or more and our defense will still suck, but it wont be enough. Gus should play Franklin if they want to win. Hogs cant stop the running QB.
Posted on 10/20/16 at 10:50 am to Dallashog
quote:
Gus should play Franklin if they want to win. Hogs cant stop the running QB.
We can't stop a running QB who can throw
If Auburn wants to win any game, they won't start Franklin
Posted on 10/20/16 at 10:52 am to auzach91
So now Auburn has a better defense than Alabama 
This is a new level of delusion
This is a new level of delusion
Posted on 10/20/16 at 11:00 am to Porcine Human
quote:
We can't stop a running QB who can throw
You are correct, I haven't seen him play since the 1st season of Last Chance U ended. Has he not improved even a little bit with Gus being the coach and all???
Posted on 10/20/16 at 11:04 am to Weagle25
The biggest problem Arkansas has in their running defense is stopping the QB. They have faced 5 mobile QBs in their first 7 games giving up an average of 55 yards to the QB out of their 176 yards rushing a game. The biggest games that they just flat out failed against the rush was Alabama and Texas A&M who are ranked 10th and 7th respectively in the NCAA in rushing yards per game. Auburn is currently ranked 12th overall in rushing, which worries me, but Arkansas seems to do better when there isn't much of a threat of a running QB. They give up 120 yards a game to opposing RBs and Auburn 117 yards.
So Arkansas's rush defense is bad, but I don't think it's as bad as people are making it out to be, especially since White isn't as big a running threat compared to several QBs we have faced.
If James Franklin comes in, we might be worried about the run, but can load the box as we wouldn't have to worry about the pass as much.
It'll be interesting to see if our defense can slow down the run just enough to force White into longer downs.
So Arkansas's rush defense is bad, but I don't think it's as bad as people are making it out to be, especially since White isn't as big a running threat compared to several QBs we have faced.
If James Franklin comes in, we might be worried about the run, but can load the box as we wouldn't have to worry about the pass as much.
It'll be interesting to see if our defense can slow down the run just enough to force White into longer downs.
Posted on 10/20/16 at 11:08 am to Razorhog23
good post- it probably won't be received well because it doesn't fit the narrative the op wanted. 
Posted on 10/20/16 at 11:08 am to Porcine Human
quote:
So now Auburn has a better defense than Alabama
I for one 100% hope this is the case
Posted on 10/20/16 at 11:13 am to Porcine Human
quote:
So now Auburn has a better defense than Alabama
That's not what he said
And you can't infer that from what he said either
This post was edited on 10/20/16 at 11:14 am
Posted on 10/20/16 at 11:22 am to Razorhog23
quote:I don't think any excuse can cover giving up over 200 yards at 9+ yards per carry to both TA&M and Alabamas runningbacks
The biggest games that they just flat out failed against the rush was Alabama and Texas A&M who are ranked 10th and 7th respectively in the NCAA in rushing yards per game. Auburn is currently ranked 12th overall in rushing, which worries me, but Arkansas seems to do better when there isn't much of a threat of a running QB. They give up 120 yards a game to opposing RBs and Auburn 117 yards.
Posted on 10/20/16 at 11:24 am to Weagle25
quote:
And you can't infer that from what he said either
he can infer whatever he wants, it's not up to you or anyone else what a particular person infers from a comment. you can disagree with what he infers but it's still his call.
the more you know...
Posted on 10/20/16 at 11:45 am to piggilicious
Yeah I don't see how anyone can infer that.
He can take it that way, but to do so would be largely indefensible and stupid.
He can take it that way, but to do so would be largely indefensible and stupid.
Posted on 10/20/16 at 11:48 am to piggilicious
quote:
can infer whatever he wants, it's not up to you or anyone else what a particular person infers from a comment. you can disagree with what he infers but it's still his call.
He can't reasonably infer that
I didn't know we were going to be so technical
This post was edited on 10/20/16 at 11:52 am
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