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Auburn fans.. it's time for an honest discussion
Posted on 11/18/13 at 12:03 pm
Posted on 11/18/13 at 12:03 pm
We'll begin this week by discussing the offenses of each team.
Auburn
15th ranked scoring offense at 39 ppg
Alabama
17th ranked scoring offense at 38.8 ppg
At first glance, these two offenses look pretty similar in points production. But looking deeper, you can see it's a little deceiving.
Auburn vs unranked opponents 41.3 ppg
Auburn vs ranked opponents 32 ppg
Both, still impressive compared to previous seasons, but a fairly large margin between good competition and below par competition.
Alabama vs unranked opponents 39.4 ppg
Alabama vs ranked opponents 37.3 ppg
Pretty similar results, less than a fg difference between high end and lower competition. Efficiency and the ability to produce consistently seems to be a strength of this offense.
Auburn vs BCS AQ schools 35.5 ppg
Alabama vs BCS AQ schools 39 ppg
Both schools have been efficient, slight edge to Bama here.
Auburn Rushing 3523 yds 6.41 ypr 320.27 ypg
Alabama Rushing 2075 yds 5.78 ypr 207.50 ypg
It appears Auburn has a much more dominant rushing game. At first glance, that is. Let's look a little deeper though.
Auburn rushing vs BCS AQ schools
398 rushes 2289 yds 5.75 ypr
Alabama rushing vs BCS AQ schools
308 rushes 1828 yds 5.94 ypr
While Auburn has more total yds, it has been less effective against good competition, gaining less yards per play than Alabama has achieved against good competition.
While Auburn is a predominately rush heavy team, one would think their TOP would be at the top of the conference, however, another misleading assumption.
Auburn TOP 29:49 per game average
Alabama TOP 33:02 per game average
As you can see, Auburn is much improved over previous years, and expectedly so, with the level of talent accrued by Trooper's questionable tactics in the past. However, as talented as Gus is and has been, it appears that it's still 2nd best in the state at this time. Defensive comparisons will be made, later in the week.
Remember..
Auburn
15th ranked scoring offense at 39 ppg
Alabama
17th ranked scoring offense at 38.8 ppg
At first glance, these two offenses look pretty similar in points production. But looking deeper, you can see it's a little deceiving.
Auburn vs unranked opponents 41.3 ppg
Auburn vs ranked opponents 32 ppg
Both, still impressive compared to previous seasons, but a fairly large margin between good competition and below par competition.
Alabama vs unranked opponents 39.4 ppg
Alabama vs ranked opponents 37.3 ppg
Pretty similar results, less than a fg difference between high end and lower competition. Efficiency and the ability to produce consistently seems to be a strength of this offense.
Auburn vs BCS AQ schools 35.5 ppg
Alabama vs BCS AQ schools 39 ppg
Both schools have been efficient, slight edge to Bama here.
Auburn Rushing 3523 yds 6.41 ypr 320.27 ypg
Alabama Rushing 2075 yds 5.78 ypr 207.50 ypg
It appears Auburn has a much more dominant rushing game. At first glance, that is. Let's look a little deeper though.
Auburn rushing vs BCS AQ schools
398 rushes 2289 yds 5.75 ypr
Alabama rushing vs BCS AQ schools
308 rushes 1828 yds 5.94 ypr
While Auburn has more total yds, it has been less effective against good competition, gaining less yards per play than Alabama has achieved against good competition.
While Auburn is a predominately rush heavy team, one would think their TOP would be at the top of the conference, however, another misleading assumption.
Auburn TOP 29:49 per game average
Alabama TOP 33:02 per game average
As you can see, Auburn is much improved over previous years, and expectedly so, with the level of talent accrued by Trooper's questionable tactics in the past. However, as talented as Gus is and has been, it appears that it's still 2nd best in the state at this time. Defensive comparisons will be made, later in the week.
Remember..
Posted on 11/18/13 at 12:05 pm to Alahunter
Thanks for the discussion. Auburn by 7+ War Eagle
Posted on 11/18/13 at 12:05 pm to Alahunter
Rankings don't mean a fricking thing. What some gum bumper says doesn't mean a fricking thing. What some fan says doesn't mean a fricking thing. This is THE IB for EVERYTHING.
Posted on 11/18/13 at 12:06 pm to Alahunter
This will be a fun game to watch.
Posted on 11/18/13 at 12:06 pm to Chadaristic
quote:
This will be a fun game to watch.
Agreed. Been looking forward to this one since we got thumped by Bama.
Posted on 11/18/13 at 12:07 pm to Alahunter
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
Posted on 11/18/13 at 12:08 pm to Alahunter
quote:nuh uh.
it's time for an honest discussion
Posted on 11/18/13 at 12:10 pm to Dice410
quote:
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
Of course it is, if we're talking about THIS year. What are you smoking?
Posted on 11/18/13 at 12:10 pm to Alahunter
I'm sorry but there should be no iron bowl discussion until after your game against UTC. Don't be looking ahead.
Posted on 11/18/13 at 12:10 pm to Alahunter
quote:
it's time for an honest discussion
My bad hunter, I didn't see the honest part. I would like to add my honest opinion now.
Auburn by 7+ War Eagle
Posted on 11/18/13 at 12:11 pm to Dice410
quote:
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
1. No need to get excited and yell.
2. Past performance, over an extended period, can help one gauge the performance in the future, when faced with similar competition.
3. You're probably right in this instance though, as Auburn has yet to face as good a defense, and their numbers will likely fall below the averages in the original post, while Alabama's remain close to the same. But that, is about defense, and will be up for discussion at a later time.
Posted on 11/18/13 at 12:13 pm to Dice410
quote:
PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS
You haven't taken a statistics class, which actually DO matter in sporting.
Try this:
Posted on 11/18/13 at 12:13 pm to AUCatfish
I'm good to discuss. Saban is at his presser and has this week covered:
quote:
Saban: "It was probably good that we were in a close game ... where we had to make some stops in the game."
Posted on 11/18/13 at 12:14 pm to Alahunter
quote:
honest discussion
Best of luck to you on that.
Posted on 11/18/13 at 12:16 pm to Alahunter
Good information. So far, people don't seem to want to really discuss the game unfortunately so you are going to get a lot of "Iron Bowl - stats don't matter," "might as well not even play the game," etc throw away responses.
I'll be looking at two things I think will be huge factors.
1st - Alabama tackling in one on one situations. Auburn's offense is so good at spreading defenders out and making every defender responsible for different assignments. Therefore, even when the defense makes the right read they are often faced with needing to make one on one tackles. I think this Alabama team is a very good one on one tackling team, but they are going to have to be at their absolute best to stop Auburn's run game. There is so much pressure to get that first tackle on every play because you are usually without help against Auburn's option running attack. Auburn has made a killing off getting people out of position and then even when the defense makes the right read they haven't won the one on one situations with Auburn's runners.
2nd - Alabama pass protection against Dee Ford and others. Dee Ford was a machine against Georgia and I think the crowd noise has a lot to do with it. The Georgia tackles were late off the snap a lot, and I'm sure having to go on motion rather Murray's snap signal was a large part of it. This will be true for Alabama's tackles as well and I think Ford and the other Auburn defenders can have similar success. Therefore, Alabama needs to do a better job of countering the Auburn D's agressive attack (kind of like Georgia started doing in the second half). Alabama's RB draw play, screen game, play action, and quick slants will need to all be mixed in on any down to keep Ford and the others guessing.
I'll be looking at two things I think will be huge factors.
1st - Alabama tackling in one on one situations. Auburn's offense is so good at spreading defenders out and making every defender responsible for different assignments. Therefore, even when the defense makes the right read they are often faced with needing to make one on one tackles. I think this Alabama team is a very good one on one tackling team, but they are going to have to be at their absolute best to stop Auburn's run game. There is so much pressure to get that first tackle on every play because you are usually without help against Auburn's option running attack. Auburn has made a killing off getting people out of position and then even when the defense makes the right read they haven't won the one on one situations with Auburn's runners.
2nd - Alabama pass protection against Dee Ford and others. Dee Ford was a machine against Georgia and I think the crowd noise has a lot to do with it. The Georgia tackles were late off the snap a lot, and I'm sure having to go on motion rather Murray's snap signal was a large part of it. This will be true for Alabama's tackles as well and I think Ford and the other Auburn defenders can have similar success. Therefore, Alabama needs to do a better job of countering the Auburn D's agressive attack (kind of like Georgia started doing in the second half). Alabama's RB draw play, screen game, play action, and quick slants will need to all be mixed in on any down to keep Ford and the others guessing.
Posted on 11/18/13 at 12:18 pm to Alahunter
offensively, it shouldn't surprise anyone that the team with the slightly better numbers is the team that returned a senior at QB with two seasons and 27 starts under his belt.
look, no question on paper who the better team is... the defensive numbers will be even more lopsided... that's why bama is a 15+ point favorite on the road after all... but obviously numbers don't win games.
no doubt who SHOULD win the game...
look, no question on paper who the better team is... the defensive numbers will be even more lopsided... that's why bama is a 15+ point favorite on the road after all... but obviously numbers don't win games.
no doubt who SHOULD win the game...
Posted on 11/18/13 at 12:19 pm to FreeWillie
I will add in the following information as well, as I left it out of the original post:
Auburn rushing vs SEC competition
352 rushes 1994 yds 5.66 ypr
Alabama rushing vs SEC competition
270 rushes 1732 yds 6.41 ypr
Again, not exactly what one would have thought at first. The more in depth one looks at each offense, the more one realizes, that one is and has been more productive than the other.
Auburn rushing vs SEC competition
352 rushes 1994 yds 5.66 ypr
Alabama rushing vs SEC competition
270 rushes 1732 yds 6.41 ypr
Again, not exactly what one would have thought at first. The more in depth one looks at each offense, the more one realizes, that one is and has been more productive than the other.
Posted on 11/18/13 at 12:19 pm to lowspark12
quote:
no doubt who SHOULD win the game..
Yes, Auburn by 14+...#posiplainsman#posibarner
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