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re: Ole Miss has the widest potential W-L variance.
Posted on 7/15/13 at 6:47 pm to RebelFreeze48
Posted on 7/15/13 at 6:47 pm to RebelFreeze48
quote:
What makes you think LSU is so dominant??? LSU could easily have a 7-5 record this year.
give Ole Miss LSU's schedule and your record would probably be between 4-6 and 7-5
For the sake of demonstration:
Heavy dogs in five games: @ UGA, @ Alabama, vs TCU in Dallas, vs A&M, vs Florida
Dogs in one game: @ Ole Miss
Toss up in three games: vs Arkansas, vs Auburn, @ MSU
Three gimme wins: UAB, Kent State, Furman
I think the over/under for LSU is 9 wins with that schedule. Which would be disappointing considering what I think this team could accomplish.
Posted on 7/15/13 at 7:35 pm to KaiserSoze99
As ridiculous as it sounds, I actually agree.
I watched a lot of Ole Miss football last year, and I must say, that team under Freeze plays with a lot of Piss & Vinegar.
A discussion on another Alabama board brought the Rebels up as a possible 'trap' game for the team. I tend to agree.
In 2010, #1 Alabama seemed unbeatable after totally abusing the #6 in the country (and very overrated), Florida Gators by 30 points. The very next week, they showed up and got beat by the Gamecocks in Columbia, who at the time, had very similar talent to the Rebels of today.
That Ole Miss defense is formidable, and Jeff Scott and Donte Moncrief are as good a duo of weapons as most.
Besides the obvious 3 from last year (Georgia, LSU, A&M) the only team that came close to giving us a game was Ole Miss. It was frustrating from our perspective, because on paper, it was a totally over-matched team. Hugh Freeze gets their players to play above their heads, and with a new infusion of talent, could be a scary team.
I have a strong feeling the "power shift" has already swung to the school up north in Mississippi completely. Freeze has better players, a better scheme, and in my opinion, is just a better coach.
Seriously, do any of y'all realize just HOW BAD the 2011 Rebels were? It was the sorriest SEC football team I've probably ever seen. 2012 Auburn was bad, but they weren't getting knelt on in the 3rd quarter. For that team the very next year to go a convincing 7-6, all while giving LSU & A&M an upset scare, was incredible.
I don't think the Rebels go 11-1... that's just not going to happen. However, there is a very real chance this squad goes 9-3, and plays in a New Years Day Bowl.
For that to happen, they only need to get a W against 1 of these 4: Texas, LSU, A&M, and Alabama. If this team can improve on last system, and the new recruits buy in like the veteran players have, this team will be more than a formidable opponent all season long.
I watched a lot of Ole Miss football last year, and I must say, that team under Freeze plays with a lot of Piss & Vinegar.
A discussion on another Alabama board brought the Rebels up as a possible 'trap' game for the team. I tend to agree.
In 2010, #1 Alabama seemed unbeatable after totally abusing the #6 in the country (and very overrated), Florida Gators by 30 points. The very next week, they showed up and got beat by the Gamecocks in Columbia, who at the time, had very similar talent to the Rebels of today.
That Ole Miss defense is formidable, and Jeff Scott and Donte Moncrief are as good a duo of weapons as most.
Besides the obvious 3 from last year (Georgia, LSU, A&M) the only team that came close to giving us a game was Ole Miss. It was frustrating from our perspective, because on paper, it was a totally over-matched team. Hugh Freeze gets their players to play above their heads, and with a new infusion of talent, could be a scary team.
I have a strong feeling the "power shift" has already swung to the school up north in Mississippi completely. Freeze has better players, a better scheme, and in my opinion, is just a better coach.
Seriously, do any of y'all realize just HOW BAD the 2011 Rebels were? It was the sorriest SEC football team I've probably ever seen. 2012 Auburn was bad, but they weren't getting knelt on in the 3rd quarter. For that team the very next year to go a convincing 7-6, all while giving LSU & A&M an upset scare, was incredible.
I don't think the Rebels go 11-1... that's just not going to happen. However, there is a very real chance this squad goes 9-3, and plays in a New Years Day Bowl.
For that to happen, they only need to get a W against 1 of these 4: Texas, LSU, A&M, and Alabama. If this team can improve on last system, and the new recruits buy in like the veteran players have, this team will be more than a formidable opponent all season long.
This post was edited on 7/15/13 at 7:36 pm
Posted on 7/15/13 at 7:56 pm to ATLabama
I read your post three times.
This post was edited on 7/15/13 at 7:58 pm
Posted on 7/15/13 at 8:33 pm to KaiserSoze99
They replaced arky. They'll have a few decent seasons and a lot of overhyped seasons.
Posted on 7/15/13 at 8:34 pm to DMagic
quote:
Who didn't know we would be terrible in 2011?
Most of your fans and fans of other schools. The party line when I predicted 0-8 was "there is no way Houston Nutt goes 0-8, he ALWAYS beats someone he shouldn't"
Not one person, not a single one, when I predicted 0-8 in 2011 said- "yeah, I agree with that"
Posted on 7/15/13 at 10:27 pm to CoonassBulldog
Most of our fans knew we would be terrible. The Spirit doesn't count.
Posted on 7/15/13 at 10:43 pm to CoonassBulldog
I love when you discuss predictions.
You finished on a roll in 2012.
You finished on a roll in 2012.
Posted on 7/15/13 at 10:49 pm to SwayzeBalla
You are probably scared now that Coon fricking nailed that Brassell prediction. He is about to go on a roll.
Posted on 7/15/13 at 10:54 pm to Eric Nies Grind Time
keys gonna be flying errywhere
Posted on 7/15/13 at 10:56 pm to Eric Nies Grind Time
Blind squirrels and such
Posted on 7/16/13 at 10:19 am to TxTiger82
quote:
Typically we think of variance in terms of all the cases, not just one case. In this example, Ole Miss would be a single case, and we would have an observed number of wins and losses for them. If we had all of the other cases (all of the other teams) we could calculate the win-loss variance. Obviously, this way of thinking about variance is much different from the way you are using it.
Another way of thinking about variance would be to imagine that we could simulate Ole Miss' season. In this scenario, each sim would be a "case" and we could calculate a variance for those sims.
Of course, that can't happen, as Ole Miss will only play the 2013 season once.
Anyways...it seems a trifling point, but I think what you are REALLY trying to say is that the probability that Ole Miss wins several important games is close to .50. Of course, these probabilities are dependent on various factors including the personnel, coaches, game locations, injuries, and prior performance, and they will change over the course of the season.
In all, I find your claim intriguing, although I think it is a bit more complicated than you make it out to be.
The most interesting approach is to set a confidence interval for the probabilities in each game and then run a simple Monte Carlo simulation. That would take a fairly straight-forward series of intuitive guesses (in the form of "I am 95% confident that the probability of Ole Miss beating State is between .65 and .8") and produce a probability for each potential record, from 0-12 to 12-0.
Posted on 7/16/13 at 10:33 am to CoonassBulldog
quote:
How is my Brassell wont play this Fall prediction going to turn out?
Still up in the air, but who the frick didn't predict he wouldn't play this Fall? You'd be less of a joke if you'd just accept the fact that you're a dumbass who doesn't know shite and doesn't have the cognitive capacity to do much with what little he does know and stopped trying to pretend that you've proved your value as a human being by having stated the obvious.
How'd my prediction that Alabama would be really good in 2012 turn out?
Posted on 7/16/13 at 10:34 am to beth(beth(omega))
quote:
Member since Feb 2013
quote:
How'd my prediction that Alabama would be really good in 2012 turn out?
hmmmmmm
Posted on 7/16/13 at 10:37 am to CoonassBulldog
quote:
Not one person, not a single one, when I predicted 0-8 in 2011 said- "yeah, I agree with that"
That has EVERYTHING to do with the fact that you're an a-hole with which no one wants to agree and absolutely NOTHING to do with what people actually thought about OM football. You bring out the worst in people, everywhere, all the time.
Just sayin...
Posted on 7/16/13 at 10:38 am to beth(beth(omega))
quote:
The most interesting approach is to set a confidence interval for the probabilities in each game and then run a simple Monte Carlo simulation. That would take a fairly straight-forward series of intuitive guesses (in the form of "I am 95% confident that the probability of Ole Miss beating State is between .65 and .8") and produce a probability for each potential record, from 0-12 to 12-0.
Peaches just read that and shite himself trying to figure it out.
Posted on 7/16/13 at 10:47 am to TigerBait2008
Did you not get that there was no actual implication that the prediction ever happened? Seemed pretty obvious, considering that the point I was making was that predicting an highly likely outcome is kind of a dumbass thing to do.
You might want to consider the possibility that you aren't very smart.
You might want to consider the possibility that you aren't very smart.
Posted on 7/16/13 at 11:19 am to beth(beth(omega))
quote:
The most interesting approach is to set a confidence interval for the probabilities in each game and then run a simple Monte Carlo simulation. That would take a fairly straight-forward series of intuitive guesses (in the form of "I am 95% confident that the probability of Ole Miss beating State is between .65 and .8") and produce a probability for each potential record, from 0-12 to 12-0.
Yes, but I think the probabilities would change as each game is not an independent event. How would you account for that?
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