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Posted on 7/15/13 at 12:34 pm to TxTiger82
quote:
Typically we think of variance in terms of all the cases, not just one case. In this example, Ole Miss would be a single case, and we would have an observed number of wins and losses for them. If we had all of the other cases (all of the other teams) we could calculate the win-loss variance. Obviously, this way of thinking about variance is much different from the way you are using it.
Another way of thinking about variance would be to imagine that we could simulate Ole Miss' season. In this scenario, each sim would be a "case" and we could calculate a variance for those sims.
Of course, that can't happen, as Ole Miss will only play the 2013 season once.
Anyways...it seems a trifling point, but I think what you are REALLY trying to say is that the probability that Ole Miss wins several important games is close to .50. Of course, these probabilities are dependent on various factors including the personnel, coaches, game locations, injuries, and prior performance, and they will change over the course of the season.
In all, I find your claim intriguing, although I think it is a bit more complicated than you make it out to be.
I enjoy a good academic discussion, but holy shite.
I couldn't think of a better way to state it, so "variance" was the word choice. Forgive my misuse.
Posted on 7/15/13 at 12:38 pm to KaiserSoze99
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I enjoy a good academic discussion, but holy shite.
Ha well, this is what I do.
quote:
couldn't think of a better way to state it, so "variance" was the word choice. Forgive my misuse.
No big deal, the way you used it is actually quite fascinating. It would be really cool to simulate seasons and calculate variances based on those simulations.
It would be the same thing as sampling from a posterior distribution to derive asymptotic confidence intervals for effect estimates in a social science survey. We do that all the time.
Very cool.
Posted on 7/15/13 at 12:38 pm to DMagic
quote:
You get his point obviously.
I've said it MANY times; there are 6 tossups that will define the 2013 season:
Vandy
Texas
Auburn
A&M
LSU
State
.500 or above is a good year
I agree.
What percentage of probability would you give to each of those games?
Taking off my Maroon-Colored Jizz-Stained glasses:
Vandy 75%
Texas 48%
Auburn 60%
A&M 60%
LSU 55%
State 52%
Forgot Bama - 45%
This post was edited on 7/15/13 at 12:40 pm
Posted on 7/15/13 at 12:41 pm to KaiserSoze99
quote:
I never said MSU was a sure W for Ole Miss, but Ole Miss is the better team IMO.
(Oh, no he didn't. Grind--ON).
They were better in 2009 too.
Posted on 7/15/13 at 12:41 pm to DMagic
quote:
I've said it MANY times; there are 6 tossups that will define the 2013 season:
Vandy
Texas
Auburn
A&M
LSU
State
.500 or above is a good year
ALL of this. All of it...
Posted on 7/15/13 at 12:42 pm to KaiserSoze99
Im sure your just trolling but tell me how Arkansas is a sure win. Didnt ole miss need a game winning field goal to beat a john l smith coached team last year?
Posted on 7/15/13 at 12:43 pm to TxTiger82
quote:
No big deal, the way you used it is actually quite fascinating. It would be really cool to simulate seasons and calculate variances based on those simulations.
You could use this site. They do simulations based on statistics.
quote:
It would be the same thing as sampling from a posterior distribution to derive asymptotic confidence intervals for effect estimates in a social science survey. We do that all the time.
Holy Austin Millbarge!
Posted on 7/15/13 at 12:43 pm to KaiserSoze99
quote:
Sure wins
quote:
Arkansas
That game is a toss-up.
Posted on 7/15/13 at 12:43 pm to BigRobHog
What took you so fricking long?
Posted on 7/15/13 at 12:44 pm to Arkansasrazorback
You flagshipers are slipping.
Posted on 7/15/13 at 12:44 pm to TxTiger82
quote:
It would be the same thing as sampling from a posterior distribution to derive asymptotic confidence intervals for effect estimates in a social science survey.
gotdamn son. I get halfway through that sentence then have to start over
Posted on 7/15/13 at 12:45 pm to KaiserSoze99
quote:
Vandy 75%
Texas 48%
Auburn 60%
A&M 60%
LSU 55%
State 52%
I think Vandy is at about .6 (don't sleep on them), and the rest are at about .5.
I think these probabilities will change dependent on Ole Miss' early season performance. If the team gels and starts to believe in itself and the system, they could develop their own momentum that increases the chance of victory in any given game.
So a lot hinges on early performances at Vanderbilt and Texas.
Posted on 7/15/13 at 12:45 pm to KaiserSoze99
quote:
What percentage of probability would you give to each of those games?
Taking off my Maroon-Colored Jizz-Stained glasses:
Vandy 75%
Texas 48%
Auburn 60%
A&M 60%
LSU 55%
State 52%
Forgot Bama - 45%
No fricking way.
First, to clarify, if we're assigning % chance of winning, it's more like this...
Vandy 75%
Texas 40%
Auburn 55%
aTm 40%
LSU 55%
State 55%
Bama 15%
No possible way Auburn and aTm are the same win %.
Posted on 7/15/13 at 12:45 pm to KaiserSoze99
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Holy Austin Millbarge!
Thanks for the link.
Posted on 7/15/13 at 12:48 pm to UMRealist
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gotdamn son. I get halfway through that sentence then have to start over
Right?
We've found Austin Millbarge.
quote:
Captain Hefling:
What about that red Chinese radio chatter?
Austin Millbarge:
It's done. Here you go.
Captain Hefling:
Done? That was a static-filled triple-scrambled microwave transmission between two soldiers talking in Mandarin Chinese!
Austin Millbarge:
Well the Chinese were only using a simple polyphonetically-grouped twenty-square-digit key transposed from boustrophedonic form with multiple nulls. I broke it with this.
Captain Hefling:
A Drogan's decoder ring? They put these things into cereal boxes... For kids!
Posted on 7/15/13 at 12:49 pm to UMRealist
quote:
I get halfway through that sentence then have to start over
Asymptotic just means that we become more sure of something as the number of times we do it approaches infinity.
Posted on 7/15/13 at 12:51 pm to TxTiger82
Use that link and run us some "variance" so we can see if it's true.
Posted on 7/15/13 at 12:52 pm to Fipitan
quote:
aTm 40%
LSU 55%
Posted on 7/15/13 at 12:54 pm to Bama Bird
quote:
Making predictions in the West this year is much more difficult than previous years
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