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The Big Lead posted an article of all teams still alive for a playoff spot. Texas has a 5%
Posted on 11/27/25 at 10:20 pm
Posted on 11/27/25 at 10:20 pm
Chance of sneaking into the playoffs. Where it gets very interesting is if Utah, Michigan, Washington, Auburn and Tennessee wins. The entire CFP will be fast tracked to a 16 team playoff.
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Posted on 11/27/25 at 11:40 pm to Nasty_Canasta
quote:I think that is generous, given all the dominoes which must fall for it to happen.
Texas has a 5% ... chance of sneaking into the playoffs
I think that 0.5% is closer to accurate.
Posted on 11/28/25 at 5:45 am to RelentlessAnalysis
The more "upsets" this weekend, the more the committee can "place" who they want in. Can not wait for the shite show next week. 
Posted on 11/28/25 at 5:56 am to Nasty_Canasta
Garbage numbers. James Madison has almost no chance. That predictor thing lacks common sense in many scenarios.
Posted on 11/28/25 at 5:59 am to RelentlessAnalysis
I do think TX would have priority over Vandy and Miami with an A&M win but would they be in front of a 2 loss Ole Miss. Do they have priority over BYU if they lose to TT in the Big 12 game?
Posted on 11/28/25 at 6:19 am to Gator Fever
Texas would need absolute chaos to ensue.
Posted on 11/28/25 at 6:46 am to Nasty_Canasta
Texas is at 16:
Their path:
Beat Texas A&M
Ohio State beats Michigan. (Up to 15)
Tennessee beats Vanderbilt (Up to 14)
Pitt beat Miami (Up to 13)
They would either hope to jump Utah or if beating A&M isn't enough to do that then they would need Utah to lose to Kansas to get to 12.
They still need to get up to 10 and the most realistic way that happens is LSU to beat Oklahoma and Auburn beat Alabama.
FPI odds on the games above:
Texas win (51.5%)
Ohio State win (78.2%)
Tennessee win (57.6%)
Pitt win (30%)
Auburn win (26.5%)
LSU win (26.2%)
The actual odds of all of these outcomes falling their way is a about 0.5% assuming they could jump Utah. If they have to have Utah lose it drops to 0.08%
So 5% is egregiously optimistic
Their path:
Beat Texas A&M
Ohio State beats Michigan. (Up to 15)
Tennessee beats Vanderbilt (Up to 14)
Pitt beat Miami (Up to 13)
They would either hope to jump Utah or if beating A&M isn't enough to do that then they would need Utah to lose to Kansas to get to 12.
They still need to get up to 10 and the most realistic way that happens is LSU to beat Oklahoma and Auburn beat Alabama.
FPI odds on the games above:
Texas win (51.5%)
Ohio State win (78.2%)
Tennessee win (57.6%)
Pitt win (30%)
Auburn win (26.5%)
LSU win (26.2%)
The actual odds of all of these outcomes falling their way is a about 0.5% assuming they could jump Utah. If they have to have Utah lose it drops to 0.08%
So 5% is egregiously optimistic
Posted on 11/28/25 at 6:48 am to Nasty_Canasta
If Texas wins today they deserve a spot. Is there any doubt they wouldn't beat about half the teams that are in the playoffs.
Hell... does Ohio St want another game with them? I don't think so.
Hell... does Ohio St want another game with them? I don't think so.
Posted on 11/28/25 at 7:36 am to Tridentds
I would play them again in a heartbeat.
Our freshman QB has grown a little since his first start.
Our freshman QB has grown a little since his first start.
Posted on 11/28/25 at 7:38 am to Nasty_Canasta
ESPN changed their odds to 0 earlier this week
Posted on 11/28/25 at 7:40 am to Gator Fever
quote:
Do they have priority over BYU if they lose to TT in the Big 12 game?
BYU shouldn’t be in the discussion.
Posted on 11/28/25 at 7:47 am to Buckeyeholic
Sure he has. I guess you think Arch had had no progression? LOL
Posted on 11/28/25 at 8:40 am to Tridentds
TIL The Big Lead is still a thing.
Posted on 11/28/25 at 9:18 am to Tridentds
quote:
Is there any doubt they wouldn't beat about half the teams that are in the playoffs.
They couldn't even beat 3 win Florida
So yes, there is some doubt.
This post was edited on 11/28/25 at 9:19 am
Posted on 11/28/25 at 9:24 am to vegas-tiger
Committee will do whatever they want and justify it. As they always do
Posted on 11/28/25 at 9:39 am to Nasty_Canasta
There are teams not listed, like Pitt, who has a legitimate path. Articles like this are always lacking.
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