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Posted on 11/10/25 at 12:53 pm
Posted on 11/10/25 at 12:53 pm
Let’s just pretend that Texas loses at Georgia but beats A&M in Austin… let’s assume Bama beats Oklahoma this weekend… and for fun, let’s assume Vandy beats Tennessee in the season finale. Let’s just assume Bama beats the Aggies in the SEC CG.
LOCKS
Alabama (12-1) SEC Champs
Only loss is NR Florida State
Top 25 wins over Georgia, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, and Missouri
Georgia (11-1)
Only loss would be to Bama by 3 points
Top 25 wins over Ole Miss, Texas, Georgia Tech, and Tennessee
Texas A&M (11-2)
Only losses at Texas and to Bama in the SEC Championship Game
Only Top 25 wins would be Notre Dame and at Missouri
SHOULD BE A LOCK BUT MY GOODNESS A WEAK RESUME
Ole Miss (11-1)
Only loss would be at Georgia
Only Top 25 win would be over Oklahoma
*I think any 11-1 team from the SEC with no bad losses gets in. But this has got to be the weakest resume by a 1-loss playoff contender out of the SEC that’s humanly possible.
THE REMAINING CONTENDERS
Texas (9-3)
Losses to Ohio State, Georgia, and Florida.
Top 25 wins over Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Vanderbilt
Oklahoma (9-3)
Losses to Alabama, Ole Miss, and Texas
Top 25 wins over Michigan, Tennessee, and Missouri
Vanderbilt (10-2)
Only losses at Bama and at Texas
Top 25 wins over Tennessee and Missouri
One likely gets left out. I feel like Texas gets the nod with head to head wins over both OU and Vandy.
Does a 9-3 Oklahoma go ahead of a 10-2 Vanderbilt? The Sooners would have played the more difficult schedule but would have an extra loss.
They both would have losses to Bama and Texas, and they both would have wins over Tennessee and Missouri. OU would have an extra loss but only because they had to play Ole Miss while Vandy didn’t. OU also played and won a tougher OOC game in Michigan rather than Virginia Tech.
Who goes? Oklahoma or Vandy?
LOCKS
Alabama (12-1) SEC Champs
Only loss is NR Florida State
Top 25 wins over Georgia, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, and Missouri
Georgia (11-1)
Only loss would be to Bama by 3 points
Top 25 wins over Ole Miss, Texas, Georgia Tech, and Tennessee
Texas A&M (11-2)
Only losses at Texas and to Bama in the SEC Championship Game
Only Top 25 wins would be Notre Dame and at Missouri
SHOULD BE A LOCK BUT MY GOODNESS A WEAK RESUME
Ole Miss (11-1)
Only loss would be at Georgia
Only Top 25 win would be over Oklahoma
*I think any 11-1 team from the SEC with no bad losses gets in. But this has got to be the weakest resume by a 1-loss playoff contender out of the SEC that’s humanly possible.
THE REMAINING CONTENDERS
Texas (9-3)
Losses to Ohio State, Georgia, and Florida.
Top 25 wins over Texas A&M, Oklahoma, and Vanderbilt
Oklahoma (9-3)
Losses to Alabama, Ole Miss, and Texas
Top 25 wins over Michigan, Tennessee, and Missouri
Vanderbilt (10-2)
Only losses at Bama and at Texas
Top 25 wins over Tennessee and Missouri
One likely gets left out. I feel like Texas gets the nod with head to head wins over both OU and Vandy.
Does a 9-3 Oklahoma go ahead of a 10-2 Vanderbilt? The Sooners would have played the more difficult schedule but would have an extra loss.
They both would have losses to Bama and Texas, and they both would have wins over Tennessee and Missouri. OU would have an extra loss but only because they had to play Ole Miss while Vandy didn’t. OU also played and won a tougher OOC game in Michigan rather than Virginia Tech.
Who goes? Oklahoma or Vandy?
This post was edited on 11/10/25 at 12:54 pm
12
Posted on 11/10/25 at 1:13 pm to AUTiger789
Six teams from the SEC?
Posted on 11/10/25 at 1:14 pm to AUTiger789
Might depend how good OU looks against Bama.
A blowout then Vandy is the pretty choice, a touchdown or less, then it gets tricky, especially since OU could argue Mateer wasn’t 100% for Texas and Ole Miss, but the dagger might be losing to Ole Miss at home whereas Vandy’s losses were both on the road.
A blowout then Vandy is the pretty choice, a touchdown or less, then it gets tricky, especially since OU could argue Mateer wasn’t 100% for Texas and Ole Miss, but the dagger might be losing to Ole Miss at home whereas Vandy’s losses were both on the road.
Posted on 11/10/25 at 1:15 pm to AUTiger789
A&M has to win out to make it to SECCG.
Posted on 11/10/25 at 1:18 pm to AUTiger789
quote:
AUTiger789
Posted on 11/10/25 at 1:23 pm to AUTiger789
3-loss OU would be out.
They kind of showed last year that 3 loss teams who didn't get the loss in a CCG aren't going to be looked at favorably. OU would also be behind Texas who beat them head to head.
They kind of showed last year that 3 loss teams who didn't get the loss in a CCG aren't going to be looked at favorably. OU would also be behind Texas who beat them head to head.
Posted on 11/10/25 at 1:25 pm to DawginSC
Mizzou won’t be a ranked team. They have 1-2 more losses
Posted on 11/10/25 at 1:26 pm to AUTiger789
Tennessee isn't staying ranked if Vandy beats them. They'd be 8-4 at that point.
This post was edited on 11/10/25 at 1:30 pm
Posted on 11/10/25 at 1:26 pm to FootballFrenzy
quote:
Six teams from the SEC?
What we need is for ND to drop a game and/or the CFP Committee wake up and realize that Oregon hasn’t won a single game against a ranked team, and only two (close) wins over teams above .500.
ETA: Oregon right now has wins against teams with a cumulative record of 26-49. They have some decent opponents down the stretch but as of now they don’t deserve to sniff the top 10.
This post was edited on 11/10/25 at 1:35 pm
Posted on 11/10/25 at 1:27 pm to AUTiger789
A&M will not make the sec champ game with a loss. We have to win out.
Posted on 11/10/25 at 1:28 pm to Dr RC
quote:
Tennessee isn't staying ranked if Vandy beats them. They'd be 8-4 at that point.
Same with Mizzou (loss at Oklahoma to drop to 8-4)
Ranked SEC teams would be Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Texas, Vanderbilt.
Posted on 11/10/25 at 1:28 pm to AUTiger789
It would fascinating if Texas was able to backdoor into the playoff considering all the unnecessary dysfunction that derailed the first half of the season. With a months worth of prep time, Texas would be a handful for any seed who draws them.
Posted on 11/10/25 at 1:29 pm to AUTiger789
quote:
Alabama (12-1) SEC Champs
Only loss is NR Florida State
Top 25 wins over Georgia, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, and Missouri
Georgia (11-1)
Only loss would be to Bama by 3 points
Top 25 wins over Ole Miss, Texas, Georgia Tech, and Tennessee
Texas A&M (11-2)
Only losses at Texas and to Bama in the SEC Championship Game
Only Top 25 wins would be Notre Dame and at Missouri
Nothing about this makes sense. If A&M loses to Texas, Georgia goes to SECCG (assuming they win out).
Posted on 11/10/25 at 1:32 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Ranked SEC teams would be Alabama, Georgia, Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Oklahoma, Texas, Vanderbilt.
I"m not sure that'll hold either.
OU closes out w/Bama, Mizzou, LSU. It will be interesting to see how they react in their last two if Bama beats them down.
This post was edited on 11/10/25 at 1:33 pm
Posted on 11/10/25 at 1:34 pm to Dr RC
quote:
I"m not sure that'll hold either.
OU closes out w/Bama, Mizzou, LSU. It will be interesting to see how they react in their last two if Bama beats them down.
Certainly possible, though I can't imagine Mizzou going into Norman and winning with their QB situation. And then you are just down to LSU, and while they could make that game a rock fight kind of like they did with us, it would be real tough for them to score enough to win in Norman.
Posted on 11/10/25 at 3:00 pm to FootballFrenzy
quote:
Six teams from the SEC?
Notre Dame would need to lose. But if the Irish fall, you’re looking at…
1 Group of 5 champ
1 ACC champ
1 Big 12 champ
And then likely 9 split between the SEC and Big 10.
Ohio State, Indiana, and Oregon seem like locks for the Big 10.
After that, the next best resume from the Big 10 is probably 9-3 USC (who has a loss to Notre Dame)… 9-3 Michigan (who has a loss to Oklahoma)…. And 8-4 Iowa.
I think the SEC gets a sixth in that scenario.
Posted on 11/10/25 at 3:04 pm to AUTiger789
Much like with SMU last year, if BYU/Texas Tech finishes 11-1 and loses in the CCG for their 2nd loss to the other one, the masses are going to rise up and demand they get in over whoever the 9-3 SEC team is out there.
Texas Tech (9-1) (loss @ Arizona St 26-22)
vs UCF (4-5)
@ WVU (4-6)
BYU (8-1) (loss @ Texas Tech 29-7)
vs TCU (6-3)
@ Cincinnati (7-2)
vs UCF (4-5)
Texas Tech (9-1) (loss @ Arizona St 26-22)
vs UCF (4-5)
@ WVU (4-6)
BYU (8-1) (loss @ Texas Tech 29-7)
vs TCU (6-3)
@ Cincinnati (7-2)
vs UCF (4-5)
This post was edited on 11/10/25 at 3:14 pm
Posted on 11/10/25 at 3:27 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Probably… but at the same time, maybe the committee learned its lesson last season with SMU.
I mean Texas Tech lost to Arizona State.
If they beat BYU twice, BYU will be 11-2 with their only losses coming to Texas Tech. BYU’s only ranked win would be Utah.
As for Utah… they’d be sitting at 10-2 with losses only to Texas Tech and BYU… their only ranked win?…. No one. Not a single one.
That does not seem like a conference that deserves two bids.
And the ACC is even worse.
I mean Texas Tech lost to Arizona State.
If they beat BYU twice, BYU will be 11-2 with their only losses coming to Texas Tech. BYU’s only ranked win would be Utah.
As for Utah… they’d be sitting at 10-2 with losses only to Texas Tech and BYU… their only ranked win?…. No one. Not a single one.
That does not seem like a conference that deserves two bids.
And the ACC is even worse.
Posted on 11/10/25 at 3:33 pm to AUTiger789
quote:
That does not seem like a conference that deserves two bids. And the ACC is even worse.
Agree. The ACC makes the Big XII look great. Who is left in the ACC with fewer than 2 losses? Georgia Tech? They could be the only bid. But they have to win the ACC CG. The loser isn’t getting in
Posted on 11/10/25 at 3:45 pm to Nasty_Canasta
quote:
Agree. The ACC makes the Big XII look great. Who is left in the ACC with fewer than 2 losses? Georgia Tech? They could be the only bid. But they have to win the ACC CG. The loser isn’t getting in
If all the favorites win out the last 3 weeks it would be GT vs Duke. Duke winning the ACC would be so hilarious
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