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Real Talk for SEC fans
Posted on 10/27/25 at 9:36 am
Posted on 10/27/25 at 9:36 am
It’s time to adjust your expectations for your program… this is literally based on math and nothing else.
At the end of the Bryant era at Alabama, the SEC ushered in a new era of parity that for the most part lasted a generation.
For 44 seasons (1980-2023), the Big 6 split the SEC championships amongst themselves in a relatively equal manner.
SEC Football Titles (1980-2023):
13- Alabama (1 every 3.4 seasons)
8- Florida (1 every 5.5 seasons)
7- Georgia (1 every 6.3 seasons)
7- Auburn (1 every 6.3 seasons)
6- LSU (1 every 7.3 seasons)
5- Tennessee (1 every 8.8 seasons)
*average of 1 every 6.3 seasons
Meanwhile, Oklahoma won 19 and Texas won 8, and A&M won 7 conference titles, respectively, in their little conferences during that time
This has created an expectation that winning titles every few seasons is the standard. And while all of these programs will undoubtedly hold championships as the standard (as they should), the simple math just shows conference titles are not going to come as easy in the future.
The SEC has added three new programs that expect to win titles (Texas and OU mostly due to history, and for A&M based on the amount they have invested to do so).
So if each of these 9 shared titles equally, we’re looking at a conference title once every 9 seasons on average… Some programs will inevitably average more, but some of these 9 will inevitably average fewer. It’s just math.
Then throw in the effects of NIL and even more so the transfer portal, and it gives programs like Ole Miss, Missouri, and even Vandy and actual chance to compete. If and when one of these actually breaks through and wins a conference title, that will make it one less to be won by the historical powers.
Not just Championships, but Games too
Not only have we expanded, but we’re about to go to a 9-game conference schedule + a mandatory OOC Power 4 opponent. Eight additional conference games played equals eight additional conference losses spread out… again, it’s just simple math.
In the past, a 10-win season was considered a good year. Ten win seasons are about to become much more rare.
And again with increased parity brought on by the transfer portal and NIL, there are going to soon be “good” teams that are going 7-5 and maybe even 6-6. That same team would have been good enough to go 9-3 in years past, but the schedule is going to just be enormously more difficult.
I think a lot of people fail to see the reality that we are in, and it’s about to be more real starting next season.
I’m not saying we should expect to have worse teams, but I am saying we should expect to all have more losses and fewer conference titles… because the math literally mandates that is going to be the case.
At the end of the Bryant era at Alabama, the SEC ushered in a new era of parity that for the most part lasted a generation.
For 44 seasons (1980-2023), the Big 6 split the SEC championships amongst themselves in a relatively equal manner.
SEC Football Titles (1980-2023):
13- Alabama (1 every 3.4 seasons)
8- Florida (1 every 5.5 seasons)
7- Georgia (1 every 6.3 seasons)
7- Auburn (1 every 6.3 seasons)
6- LSU (1 every 7.3 seasons)
5- Tennessee (1 every 8.8 seasons)
*average of 1 every 6.3 seasons
Meanwhile, Oklahoma won 19 and Texas won 8, and A&M won 7 conference titles, respectively, in their little conferences during that time
This has created an expectation that winning titles every few seasons is the standard. And while all of these programs will undoubtedly hold championships as the standard (as they should), the simple math just shows conference titles are not going to come as easy in the future.
The SEC has added three new programs that expect to win titles (Texas and OU mostly due to history, and for A&M based on the amount they have invested to do so).
So if each of these 9 shared titles equally, we’re looking at a conference title once every 9 seasons on average… Some programs will inevitably average more, but some of these 9 will inevitably average fewer. It’s just math.
Then throw in the effects of NIL and even more so the transfer portal, and it gives programs like Ole Miss, Missouri, and even Vandy and actual chance to compete. If and when one of these actually breaks through and wins a conference title, that will make it one less to be won by the historical powers.
Not just Championships, but Games too
Not only have we expanded, but we’re about to go to a 9-game conference schedule + a mandatory OOC Power 4 opponent. Eight additional conference games played equals eight additional conference losses spread out… again, it’s just simple math.
In the past, a 10-win season was considered a good year. Ten win seasons are about to become much more rare.
And again with increased parity brought on by the transfer portal and NIL, there are going to soon be “good” teams that are going 7-5 and maybe even 6-6. That same team would have been good enough to go 9-3 in years past, but the schedule is going to just be enormously more difficult.
I think a lot of people fail to see the reality that we are in, and it’s about to be more real starting next season.
I’m not saying we should expect to have worse teams, but I am saying we should expect to all have more losses and fewer conference titles… because the math literally mandates that is going to be the case.
This post was edited on 10/27/25 at 9:48 am
12
Posted on 10/27/25 at 9:43 am to AUTiger789
Texas had 8
But you left of A&M with 7 football conference champ over that same period
But you left of A&M with 7 football conference champ over that same period
Posted on 10/27/25 at 9:47 am to AUTiger789
quote:In pro football, parity reigns supreme. Means more losses, but it makes for some great end of game moments every Saturday.
Real Talk for SEC fans
Posted on 10/27/25 at 9:48 am to Old Sarge
Oversight on my part. Updated now.
Posted on 10/27/25 at 9:49 am to AUTiger789
I've been arguing since OU and Texas to the SEC was announced that an SEC Championship will carry more weight than a National Championship. Because the SEC is absolutely a gauntlet and the Playoff will include schools from weak conferences who haven't played anyone. Really, only the top few schools from the B1G and Notre Dame present comparable challenges to a run-of-the-mill week in the SEC. Especially in this new NIL/Portal era, few schools outside the Southeastern Conference will spend on the level of even a Mizzou or Ole Miss.
Put another way, the B1G currently has five programs that are ranked: Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon, Michigan, and USC. That means there are 13 programs that are unranked. Those top few schools can waltz into the Playoff having only potentially played one or two ranked conference opponents. And not only are 13 of those schools not ranked, most of them are putrid.
By contrast, the SEC currently has nine ranked teams. Meaning there are only seven programs that are unranked. And most of those unranked teams are still good enough to be in the upper echelon of any other conference. I honestly think Kentucky is the only SEC school that would finish with a worse-than .500 record in the B1G this season.
And compared to the ACC or Big 12, the B1G is pretty stout.
Put another way, the B1G currently has five programs that are ranked: Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon, Michigan, and USC. That means there are 13 programs that are unranked. Those top few schools can waltz into the Playoff having only potentially played one or two ranked conference opponents. And not only are 13 of those schools not ranked, most of them are putrid.
By contrast, the SEC currently has nine ranked teams. Meaning there are only seven programs that are unranked. And most of those unranked teams are still good enough to be in the upper echelon of any other conference. I honestly think Kentucky is the only SEC school that would finish with a worse-than .500 record in the B1G this season.
And compared to the ACC or Big 12, the B1G is pretty stout.
Posted on 10/27/25 at 9:49 am to BevoBucks
quote:
In pro football, parity reigns supreme. Means more losses, but it makes for some great end of game moments every Saturday.
I totally agree. I think it’s going to be more fun week-to-week once fans realize one loss isn’t the end of the world… we’ve been so trained to have that mindset it’s going to be hard to break.
Posted on 10/27/25 at 9:50 am to AUTiger789
Plus you are going to have spoilers. We've already seen the impact of Vandy's big money boosters opening up the pocketbook.
Even schools that aren't going to get into an NIL war can screw things up for everyone else. Arkansas, barring a radical change, isn't going to outbid anyone. However there is a very real chance we get a wild hare up our butt and land, say, a good O Lineman who might have been the one missing piece of the puzzle for a potential CFP run.
We are living in a completely new world of college football.
Even schools that aren't going to get into an NIL war can screw things up for everyone else. Arkansas, barring a radical change, isn't going to outbid anyone. However there is a very real chance we get a wild hare up our butt and land, say, a good O Lineman who might have been the one missing piece of the puzzle for a potential CFP run.
We are living in a completely new world of college football.
Posted on 10/27/25 at 9:53 am to AUTiger789
Interesting read, but just curious why you left off the 2024 season.
Posted on 10/27/25 at 9:58 am to AUTiger789
And to be fair the SWC was a solid conference on equal staring with the SEC and so was the BIG 12 until Nebraska, A&M, Colorado and Missouri left
Yes, several Oklahoma titles and one of Texas’s were in the version of the big 12 that was equal to the Conference USA
But most titles were big boy football in a conference equally strong as the SEC
Yes, several Oklahoma titles and one of Texas’s were in the version of the big 12 that was equal to the Conference USA
But most titles were big boy football in a conference equally strong as the SEC
Posted on 10/27/25 at 10:00 am to AUTiger789
With all the unrealistic expectations, imagine how things are going go once we play 9 conference games.
Posted on 10/27/25 at 10:02 am to Crimson K
quote:
curious why you left off the 2024 season
Because 2023 was the last year before Tejas and Oklahoma joined, I assume.
Posted on 10/27/25 at 10:04 am to AUTiger789
Exactly why Auburn should keep freeze. Who wants to be the next Tennessee? Wait auburn is already there
This post was edited on 10/27/25 at 10:05 am
Posted on 10/27/25 at 10:10 am to AUTiger789
The big 4 in the SEC (Alabama, UGA, UT and LSU, in that order) have won 76% of the SEC titles since the conference began. That is not going to change with the addition of anyone.....Alabama and UGA will continue to win conference titles at the same rate they always have (Alabama about every 3 years and UGA about every 6). Unlikely that Tennessee or LSU do not also keep pace with their historical averages. It is not likely that Florida will, they were bottom dwellers historically and appear to be well on their way to sharing real estate with Kentucky and the Mississippi schools once again. Vandy ain't likely to win many, South Carolina and Arkansas are only slightly more likely and Missouri is in the same boat with those 2. Texas and OU will probably outpace Auburn who seems to be heading toward their natural position in the conference which is winning a title about every 8 years or so. No doubt Texas and OU will most likely win a SEC title but they are unlikely to outpace the big 4.
Posted on 10/27/25 at 10:12 am to Crimson K
quote:
Interesting read, but just curious why you left off the 2024 season
Post-expansion. IMO, 2024 was the start of the new era…. Evidenced by Texas playing for the SEC title in their first season.
Posted on 10/27/25 at 10:19 am to AUTiger789
This is thoughtful, concise and well reasoned.
Who are you, and why are you on the Rant?
Who are you, and why are you on the Rant?
Posted on 10/27/25 at 10:21 am to Mizz-SEC
quote:
With all the unrealistic expectations, imagine how things are going go once we play 9 conference games.
Alabama, UGA, Tennessee and LSU will continue to win SEC titles at their historical pace playing 9 or 15 conference games because everyone will be playing the same number. There is nearly 100 years of data....the jury is in. Alabama is clearly the historically best program in the conference with UGA, LSU and Tennessee all pretty close to being second to Alabama....then there is Auburn who has been pretty good historically and that's it. Florida had a spectacular run but historically they were closer to Kentucky and the Mississippi schools than they were the big 4. Then you have the "Johny come before the most recent expansion latelies" who were never much count in whatever the frick conference they called home and OU and Texas who won piles of conference titles playing in conferences where Auburn and Florida would have historically been the best teams in those conferences. OU and Texas will deny this but the fact that they have changed conferences like some folks change underwear while there are still 10 charter members of the SEC in the SEC speaks volumes about the quality of product those conferences presented historically.
Posted on 10/27/25 at 10:28 am to AUTiger789
Good stuff. Thanks.
Posted on 10/27/25 at 10:28 am to AwgustaDawg
Wanna bet? You are stuck in 2010 - 2020 if you think Texas is going to be begging tennessee and lsu in co defense titles but I guess we will see. So far we are 0-1.
The point of what the OP posted is very true and those 4 teams you listed are not going to win 76% like they use to but I guess time will tell. Empirically theres too much parity, changes with NIL and transfer portal, and like it or not adding Texas and OU makes it harder for everyone else to win in the SEC, period
The point of what the OP posted is very true and those 4 teams you listed are not going to win 76% like they use to but I guess time will tell. Empirically theres too much parity, changes with NIL and transfer portal, and like it or not adding Texas and OU makes it harder for everyone else to win in the SEC, period
Posted on 10/27/25 at 10:30 am to Arksulli
quote:
Plus you are going to have spoilers. We've already seen the impact of Vandy's big money boosters opening up the pocketbook.
Even schools that aren't going to get into an NIL war can screw things up for everyone else. Arkansas, barring a radical change, isn't going to outbid anyone. However there is a very real chance we get a wild hare up our butt and land, say, a good O Lineman who might have been the one missing piece of the puzzle for a potential CFP run.
We are living in a completely new world of college football.
Far more likely that in another 2-3 seasons the same culprits who have dominated college football over the last 50 years or so will prove to have a better handle on NIL and the portal and will eliminate the parity that seems to be present today. There is a reason Alabama is the best program in college football history....and it ain't the water in Tuscaloosa. It's the expectations of everyone connected to the program. When that goofy bastard calls up Feinbaum calling for the coaches head when they give up more points that he thinks they should have the rest of CFB laughs and says "Alabama fans have unrealistic expectations"...but those expectations make a HUGE difference. CFB has been changing since the 1980s and the same list of schools who were winning then are pretty much still winning...its unlikely that Vandy or GT, as fun as it is to see, will continue to compete because historically they have not done so, at least in the modern era. There may be 30 schools who realistically have the resources AND the willingness to do what it takes to win national titles. Of those 30 only about 10 actually do so on a consistent basis and it is far more likely those 10 and the total of 30 will figure out NIL and the portal before everyone else and navigate it better because they have always been better at managing whatever was going on in CFB and the data is clear in the number of wins and nattys those schools have.
Posted on 10/27/25 at 10:30 am to AUTiger789
Great post and I 100% agree, post expansion is a whole new world.
It will be a lot of fun in the new sec era and something Texas fans are super excited to be a part of but going to be super difficult to win as there's only so many Ws to go around. There will be a trickle down of previous powers not winning as much and fanbases not use to that
It will be a lot of fun in the new sec era and something Texas fans are super excited to be a part of but going to be super difficult to win as there's only so many Ws to go around. There will be a trickle down of previous powers not winning as much and fanbases not use to that
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