Texas A&M at Arkansas - StatSim

Looks like a blowout on paper... hope that holds.

They had one Kick-Off Return allowed versus an FBS opponent (Arkansas State) and it went for a 98-yard touchdown. I think they'll do everything they can to kick everything through the endzone and not allow Concepcion to return one.
They are also bad a punt return defense... and punt returns.... and kick off returns....
They are also really, really, really bad on all facets of defense; just horrid.
But! they've played 4 top-20 offenses in a row (probably attributable to them being on the defense and their horrid defense showing up on the other team's stat sheets)... but still.
We will be the 2nd best offense they've played and the best defense they've played.
Tennessee is a paper tiger; good offense and really bad defense; it's the only reason Arkansas was within 1 score of winning.
Top 3rd Down Defense (Aggies at 20% allowed) versus Top-5 3rd Down Offense (Arky at 55%); I feel we don't keep the streak up, but they don't achieve more than 40% conversions either.
Officially, I think the score may be tighter than the model indicated. I am personnaly prediction a 38-24 or 38-28 type of game. But We could score ALOT more, if we're clicking. However, it being on the road and Moss being out; I think Vegas is closer than my model; and I would bet the Ags to cover (if I placed wagers, which I don't).

*** This is not betting advice and I take no responsibility if you use this data to place wagers and lose ***



[Note: Just noticed a made a booboo on the QxQ and opponent record section ; Arkansas is 2-4 (0-2); no 2-3 (1-1)... forgot to replace the Florida record from last week.]