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S&P+ has this weekend as a pickem
Posted on 10/1/25 at 8:02 am
Posted on 10/1/25 at 8:02 am
Alabama is only a 2.5 point favorite over Vandy at home according to S&P+. One of the largest differences against the Vegas spread this week
It ranks us at 10 and them at 11. With Vandy having the better offense, but worse defense.
This is probably a nail bitter, hopefully Kane did something this week to even try to get them off the field
It ranks us at 10 and them at 11. With Vandy having the better offense, but worse defense.
This is probably a nail bitter, hopefully Kane did something this week to even try to get them off the field
5
Posted on 10/1/25 at 8:06 am to UltimaParadox
A pick'em is, by definition, when neither side is favored.
Posted on 10/1/25 at 8:10 am to UltimaParadox
quote:
Alabama is only a 2.5 point favorite
That essentially means Vandy would be .5 point favorite on a neutral field and 3.5 point favorite in Nashville. That is kind of crazy.
Hope the D is switched on.
Posted on 10/1/25 at 8:14 am to Che Boludo
The defense is going to give up yardage. We need to hope that the chunk plays don't go for touchdowns, and that we can force enough negative or neutral plays to be able to get off the field or force field goals.
I do think our offense will go up and down the field on them, though.
I do think our offense will go up and down the field on them, though.
Posted on 10/1/25 at 8:16 am to UltimaParadox
I tihnk the only way we win is if we win the turnover margin. That was the difference last year and Vandy is a much better team this year playing with a confidence I've never seen them play with before.
Posted on 10/1/25 at 8:21 am to Bham Bammer
I don't disagree. I think it is a 42-35 type of game. Bama is in survive and advance mode, and they advance in a frustratingly close one on Saturday
Posted on 10/1/25 at 8:51 am to Che Boludo
i think they're gonna move the ball on our defense. the key to a win is holding them to field goals rather than td's. conversely, we need to score td's regularly.
Posted on 10/1/25 at 9:01 am to crimsontater
Models are having a hard time with Vandy for a few reasons:
1) Vandy is taking the Indiana scorched approach of last year. They leave all their starters in and run the score up late in blowouts. Probably to help overcome the Vandy perception and for Pavia's heisman hopes. This makes their wins look more dominant than they really are. The models can't differentiate competitive TD drives in the 1st quarter from BS TDs against backups late in the 4th when the game is over and the other team has given up.
2) They beat up on a Virginia Tech team that had completely given up on its head coach. That win looks better in the models because Tech now beat a competent NC State team. But Tech team that NC State played is very different than the Tech team that Vandy played.
3) They beat what is otherwise is a good SC team. But Sellers got hurt and ruled out early in the game. SC's offense is entirely dependent on Sellers - they have ZERO run game, and no backup QB. Their backup QB is a guy that failed at QB and converted to WR. If he was a starter we'd say he's probably the worst starter in FBS, I doubt he could even win a job in D2. God bless him, I live in Columbia and root for SC as a 2nd team after Bama. Great kid. But if he's in the game, and you can't run the ball, you are not going to score more than 10 points in a game without trick plays or D/ST scores. But the models can't account for this. They just think Vandy got a convincing win against a solid SEC team.
All that being said, Vandy is LEGIT GOOD. But, they are overrated by computer models. They have great coaching and veteran experience, but we have a decisive talent advantage. We *should* win and with a fair amount of comfort if we play disciplined and up to our capability. But as we saw last year coming off of a big win in this kind of spot, that's a huge if.
1) Vandy is taking the Indiana scorched approach of last year. They leave all their starters in and run the score up late in blowouts. Probably to help overcome the Vandy perception and for Pavia's heisman hopes. This makes their wins look more dominant than they really are. The models can't differentiate competitive TD drives in the 1st quarter from BS TDs against backups late in the 4th when the game is over and the other team has given up.
2) They beat up on a Virginia Tech team that had completely given up on its head coach. That win looks better in the models because Tech now beat a competent NC State team. But Tech team that NC State played is very different than the Tech team that Vandy played.
3) They beat what is otherwise is a good SC team. But Sellers got hurt and ruled out early in the game. SC's offense is entirely dependent on Sellers - they have ZERO run game, and no backup QB. Their backup QB is a guy that failed at QB and converted to WR. If he was a starter we'd say he's probably the worst starter in FBS, I doubt he could even win a job in D2. God bless him, I live in Columbia and root for SC as a 2nd team after Bama. Great kid. But if he's in the game, and you can't run the ball, you are not going to score more than 10 points in a game without trick plays or D/ST scores. But the models can't account for this. They just think Vandy got a convincing win against a solid SEC team.
All that being said, Vandy is LEGIT GOOD. But, they are overrated by computer models. They have great coaching and veteran experience, but we have a decisive talent advantage. We *should* win and with a fair amount of comfort if we play disciplined and up to our capability. But as we saw last year coming off of a big win in this kind of spot, that's a huge if.
This post was edited on 10/1/25 at 9:03 am
Posted on 10/1/25 at 9:20 am to Crimson77
Sure they can beat us, but this same team finished 7-6 last year. Total O @ 123rd, Total D @74. They dominated TOP because they could run on us and Bama could not do anything on offense. There is no reason, assuming a comparable effort to last week's that Bama doesn't win comfortably. Milroe ain't playing Saturday.
Posted on 10/1/25 at 9:26 am to Bamadiver
quote:
They dominated TOP because they could run on us and Bama could not do anything on offense.
That’s not true at all. Bama avg 8.76 yards per play which was the 2nd highest avg of the season after the Western Kentucky opener. The problem was Bama had just 45 plays all game which was easily the fewest plays in a game not just all season but the fewest plays ran in several years
The only problem specifically attributed to the offense was 2 turnovers.
Also the defensive side it wasn’t just them running all over us, they threw well too. It was the 3rd most passing yards allowed and by far the highest passer rating allowed all season.
This post was edited on 10/1/25 at 9:30 am
Posted on 10/1/25 at 9:30 am to Bamadiver
quote:
Bama could not do anything on offense.
400 yards on offense and 35 points should be enough to win any game.
Posted on 10/1/25 at 9:30 am to 1BamaRTR
quote:Correct. And Vandy went up quick and we went into the stitter. So let me clairify. Long, sustained drives was not a thing in last year's game. Better? I stand by my assessment. We dominate Saturday.
The only problem specifically attributed to the offense was 2 turnovers.
Posted on 10/1/25 at 9:33 am to jchamil
quote:
400 yards on offense and 35 points should be enough to win any game.
On 9 drives
Posted on 10/1/25 at 9:36 am to Bamadiver
The offense was by no means perfect but the defense was the shittier of the two. And I do think a big part of it was them overlooking Vandy. They’re definitely not overlooking them this year
Posted on 10/1/25 at 9:36 am to Bamadiver
quote:
Sure they can beat us, but this same team finished 7-6 last year. Total O @ 123rd, Total D @74.
Well this isn’t the “same” team as last year, just as we, nor any other team out there, are exactly the same team as last year. If nothing else, they have more experience in their system.
quote:
They dominated TOP because they could run on us
This could very likely happen again this year. Our DC and defense have shown no improvement or effectiveness in defending Vandy’s style of offense. And we lost Jihaad Campbell off of last year’s squad and replaced him with a 5th year senior out of JUCO.
quote:
There is no reason, assuming a comparable effort to last week's that Bama doesn't win comfortably.
For me, it is too early to assume we will get a comparable effort to last week’s game. This is actually one of the biggest questions I have regarding DeBoer and how successful he can be here. We know he can get the guys up for prime time games; but how our guys respond the following week against a team perceived as weaker is really what needs to be answered. So far in the DeBoer era, the evidence is not favorable.
quote:
Milroe ain't playing Saturday.
This is true and good for us.
Posted on 10/1/25 at 10:08 am to Hawaiian Punch
Vandy was 54 for 166 on the ground last year. I'd take that YPC in a heartbeat, but allowing them to have the ball long enough to run it 54 times was the big problem last year.
What we can't do is throw a pick six or have a strip-sack fumble in a game where possessions are at a premium. And their style of play is probably going to put possessions at a premium.
I also think if we can jump out on them with a quick start they'll have to come out of their desired gameplan of ball control with 3 and 4 yard runs.
Get off the field on third down.
What we can't do is throw a pick six or have a strip-sack fumble in a game where possessions are at a premium. And their style of play is probably going to put possessions at a premium.
I also think if we can jump out on them with a quick start they'll have to come out of their desired gameplan of ball control with 3 and 4 yard runs.
Get off the field on third down.
This post was edited on 10/1/25 at 10:12 am
Posted on 10/1/25 at 11:10 am to 1BamaRTR
The main weakness, setting the edge, imho hasn't been fixed. We need a couple stops or turnovers with scores to go up. Force them to respond through the air. Ballgame. I almost think we will flip the script from last year on them. If the oline from the UGA game shows up. 
Posted on 10/1/25 at 11:20 am to UltimaParadox
I think it has to be a bend but dont break game. I think they will move the ball, but can we hold them to field goals or not.
Posted on 10/1/25 at 11:33 am to Bamadiver
The spread opened at Bama - 121/2 and is now - 101/2. If you believe the model you would bet the ranch on Vandy. In my opinion that would be folly. If you bet this game Bama is the bet. This reason I say this is our offense should control the tempo of the game. Our defense should play much better than they did last year because of this alone. Is there such a thing as a revenge game against Vanderbilt? There are a lot of nervous Nellie's here so I am betting Bama.
Posted on 10/1/25 at 11:46 am to stewieie
If I had $100 to bet on the Vandy game I'd bet $60 on Vandy to cover, $30 on the over, and $10 on Vandy straight up.
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