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Bobby Burton on * Ratings
Posted on 5/19/25 at 8:43 pm
Posted on 5/19/25 at 8:43 pm
Bobby Burton's take on Texas taking another 3* DB this early in the cycle.
It's time for the negative ratings bump held against Austin HS players to reset. BOMC and all.
quote:It is worth noting that 3 Austin HS DBs started for Texas last year. Jahdae Barron and Andrew Mukuba were NFL draft picks, and All-American Michael Taaffe (former walk-on) returned for his senior year.
Bobby Burton -
Well, Texas took another three star recruit on Friday. Austin Anderson defensive back Yaheim Riley is not among the top 100 players in the country by any service. Even more, he’s not even ranked among the top 100 players in the state by at least one.
So what in the world are Steve Sarkisian and Brandon Harris thinking? I mean, Texas should only be going after four and five stars. Right?
Wrong.
Just ask Cam Williams, Cole Hutson and Ethan Burke from the 2022 recruiting class. Or ask Tre Wisner and Trevor Goosby from the 2023 class.
How would this Longhorn roster look without Alex January, Parker Livingstone, Ty’Anthony Smith, Nate Kibble and others from the 2024 class?
Heck, even ask three more NFL draft picks from the class of 2021 - Hayden Connor, Gunnar Helm and Barryn Sorrell.
Facts are, “stars” mean little these days when it comes to Texas football. What matters most is a) the eye for talent that Sark and his staff seem to have and b) the development they bestow on the recruits once they arrive on campus.
Look, I was one of the inventors of the star-based ranking system. Literally.
I was in the room when we decided to go with “stars” instead of “chips” or “diamonds”.
I am well aware of the statistical probability that they result in.
But I have long held that 3 star prospects who sign with elite programs, programs like Texas, Ohio State, Georgia, etc., also have a disproportionate chance of making the NFL than 3 stars that sign elsewhere.
Why?
Because certain programs get more of the players they want, no matter where a player is ranked. Sure, there are “hits” and “misses” of three stars. But the exact same could be said for four and five stars.
I feel more confident than ever when Texas adds a three stars recruit. Maybe star chasers will disagree.
But to them, I say look at Sark’s track record at Texas. And look at Yaheim Riley’s film.
If Riley is a three star, then give me all of those I can get.
It's time for the negative ratings bump held against Austin HS players to reset. BOMC and all.
8
Posted on 5/20/25 at 5:01 am to Ptins944
Congrats on your three stars
Posted on 5/21/25 at 10:26 am to Ptins944
quote:
It's time for the negative ratings bump held against Austin HS players to reset. BOMC and all.
You offer three data points to make a case when there are decades of data to actually analyze the trends?
I know 247 ran the data in aggregate and concluded:
quote:
Three-star recruits have a low likelihood of being drafted into the NFL, with only 6% from the 2016-17 class being selected in the 2020 NFL Draft.
Comparatively, four-star recruits had a 23.5% draft rate, and five-star recruits had a much higher rate at 62.3%.
The chances of becoming a first-round NFL draft pick were highest for five-star recruits at 34.3%, followed by four-stars at 3.8% and then three-stars at 0.005%.
And Mukuba and Barron were both very highly ranked recruits so I am not sure what your point is here.
This post was edited on 5/21/25 at 10:29 am
Posted on 5/22/25 at 6:06 am to Ptins944
Yes, three star players can still be really good. That’s true.
Also true: there is an extremely high correlation between teams with the most high 4 and 5 star players and championships won.
Also true: there is an extremely high correlation between teams with the most high 4 and 5 star players and championships won.
This post was edited on 5/22/25 at 6:07 am
Posted on 6/1/25 at 11:32 am to Ptins944
LSU has had better luck with 3 star Louisiana WRs than 5 star OOS WRs
Posted on 6/2/25 at 9:51 am to Ptins944
quote:
Bobby Burton
Posted on 6/4/25 at 9:50 am to Ptins944
That’s a horrible take…3*’s with NFL potential simply have elite traits that have yet to be realized/developed, which may be recognized by scouts depending on how much exposure they get
Posted on 6/4/25 at 1:29 pm to Ptins944
A lot of services adjust star rankings when players commit to powerhouse schools.
I like the star rating, but I also think a lot of people who rate these kids are idiots.
I like the star rating, but I also think a lot of people who rate these kids are idiots.
Posted on 6/8/25 at 1:49 am to TexasOnTop
quote:
A lot of services adjust star rankings when players commit to powerhouse schools.
I like the star rating, but I also think a lot of people who rate these kids are idiots.
^^^
Burton is talking to fans like it's 2005. I am pretty sure folks have caught on to how ratings are made. I have been following these recruiting sites since 2005, and my On3 subscription ends this November. there are better things to pay attention to.
This post was edited on 6/8/25 at 1:50 am
Posted on 6/9/25 at 5:41 pm to tigerbait2010
Bobby owns On3. So recruiting sites he owned were always biased.
Posted on 6/16/25 at 7:56 am to Ptins944
Guy has zero credibility outside the Longhorn fanbase.
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