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The Projected 1-seeds
Posted on 2/3/25 at 8:50 am
Posted on 2/3/25 at 8:50 am
1. Auburn
2. Alabama
3. Duke
4. Tennessee
The resumes:
Record:
20-1 Auburn
19-2 Duke
19-3 Alabama
18-4 Tennessee
Quad 1 Record:
12-1 Auburn
6-3 Alabama
5-2 Duke
5-4 Tennessee
Quad 1+2 Record:
14-1 Auburn
14-3 Alabama
9-2 Duke
8-4 Tennessee
Wins Above Bubble
9.21 Auburn (1)
6.78 Alabama (2)
4.90 Duke (3)
4.60 Tennessee (4)
It appears that Auburn could probably absorb at least one loss and stay the #1 overall seed.
It also appears that Auburn could absorb about 4 more losses and still keep a 1-seed.
I think it’s entirely possible we could see a 1-seed this year with a 26-5 or even 25-6 regular season record.
2. Alabama
3. Duke
4. Tennessee
The resumes:
Record:
20-1 Auburn
19-2 Duke
19-3 Alabama
18-4 Tennessee
Quad 1 Record:
12-1 Auburn
6-3 Alabama
5-2 Duke
5-4 Tennessee
Quad 1+2 Record:
14-1 Auburn
14-3 Alabama
9-2 Duke
8-4 Tennessee
Wins Above Bubble
9.21 Auburn (1)
6.78 Alabama (2)
4.90 Duke (3)
4.60 Tennessee (4)
It appears that Auburn could probably absorb at least one loss and stay the #1 overall seed.
It also appears that Auburn could absorb about 4 more losses and still keep a 1-seed.
I think it’s entirely possible we could see a 1-seed this year with a 26-5 or even 25-6 regular season record.
9
Posted on 2/3/25 at 8:51 am to AUTiger789
We basically became the ACC. Dominant in basketball and basically overrated arse in football.
Posted on 2/3/25 at 8:54 am to AUTiger789
I think the top Big 12 team, either Houston or Iowa State, ends up as a 1 seed.
Posted on 2/3/25 at 8:55 am to SEC Doctor
Bama plays alot of quad 2 teams
Posted on 2/3/25 at 9:06 am to FlyDownTheField
quote:
Bama plays alot of quad 2 teams
8 of their last 9 are Q1 games
Posted on 2/3/25 at 9:06 am to FlyDownTheField
quote:
Bama plays alot of quad 2 teams
We've played eight. Five of them were conference games.
ETA: I just checked our schedule to finish out conference play and it is ridiculous. We have nine games left. Eight of them are Quad 1 and the other one is Quad 2.
This post was edited on 2/3/25 at 9:09 am
Posted on 2/3/25 at 9:10 am to AUTiger789
According to KenPom, the chances of Auburn finishing 14-4 or better in conference play is 95.3%. That’s basically what it will take to lock up a 1-seed.
It says Auburn has a 73.2% chance of finishing 16-2 or better. I think that’s what it will take the lock up the overall #1 seed.
It says Auburn has a 73.2% chance of finishing 16-2 or better. I think that’s what it will take the lock up the overall #1 seed.
Posted on 2/3/25 at 9:10 am to AUTiger789
And what happens IF Missouri beats Tennessee Wednesday.
Tough road game for the Tigers and I don't necessarily expect them to win, but I didn't expect a 27 point blowout against Ms State in Starkville either...
Tough road game for the Tigers and I don't necessarily expect them to win, but I didn't expect a 27 point blowout against Ms State in Starkville either...
Posted on 2/3/25 at 9:11 am to FlyDownTheField
quote:
Bama plays alot of quad 2 teams
3 teams within 7 spots of turning into Q1 right now
vs #34 Georgia
vs #36 Creighton
vs #38 Oklahoma
We've played 5 top 20 teams and all of them have been on the road or neutral (Houston, Purdue, Illinois, Texas A&M, Kentucky).
Posted on 2/3/25 at 9:12 am to AUTiger789
I look forward to watching Auburn's inevitable failure in the first 2 rounds of the tourney.
Posted on 2/3/25 at 9:16 am to AUTiger789
quote:That's almost more of a certainty than a possibility.
I think it’s entirely possible we could see a 1-seed this year with a 26-5 or even 25-6 regular season record.
Posted on 2/3/25 at 9:17 am to AUTiger789
The only threat to Auburn getting the #1 overall seed is if they lose 2-3 SEC games and Duke doesn't lose again (which is possible in that horrid league and with Illinois in a funk right now).
If Duke goes 32-2 and has the home win over Auburn they are going to get the #1 overall seed if Auburn has 3-4 losses. Even though Auburn will have a massive advantage in all the metrics.
Duke's schedule left
@ Syracuse (132)
@ Clemson (30)
Cal (130)
Stanford (72)
@ Virginia (134)
vs Illinois (MSG) (12)
@ Miami (229)
FSU (88)
Wake (69)
@ Carolina (45)
There are only 2 reasonably losable games left there (@ Clemson, Illinois). Any other loss would be a massive upset. Just a horrid league.
And it will be stupid, but it will happen.
If Duke goes 32-2 and has the home win over Auburn they are going to get the #1 overall seed if Auburn has 3-4 losses. Even though Auburn will have a massive advantage in all the metrics.
Duke's schedule left
@ Syracuse (132)
@ Clemson (30)
Cal (130)
Stanford (72)
@ Virginia (134)
vs Illinois (MSG) (12)
@ Miami (229)
FSU (88)
Wake (69)
@ Carolina (45)
There are only 2 reasonably losable games left there (@ Clemson, Illinois). Any other loss would be a massive upset. Just a horrid league.
And it will be stupid, but it will happen.
Posted on 2/3/25 at 9:18 am to Monsieur Morrel
quote:
Tough road game
It could happen but playing at Knoxville is a hard ask for any team.
Posted on 2/3/25 at 9:18 am to FlyDownTheField
quote:
Bama plays alot of quad 2 teams
He says, having played 100% moar q4 teams
This post was edited on 2/3/25 at 9:19 am
Posted on 2/3/25 at 9:20 am to Monsieur Morrel
quote:
And what happens IF Missouri beats Tennessee Wednesday.
For whatever reason, Missouri hasn’t been getting much credit from the bracketologists…. Going into this weekend:
Lunardi: 7-seed (#26)
JBR: 7-seed (#25)
T3: 7-seed (#25)
NKY: 8-seed (#29)
NKY Bracket Guy is the only one of these to update since Saturday, and he has Mizzou at a 6-seed now (#21).
I imagine most will have Mizzou on the 5/6 line. A win over Tennessee would probably move Mizzou up to a 4-seed.
Posted on 2/3/25 at 9:26 am to Simple Solution
Not gonna happen unless there is an injury or random and unwarranted flagrant ejection like there was last year
Posted on 2/3/25 at 9:31 am to MoarKilometers
quote:
He says, having played 100% moar q4 teams ?
Quad 4 games:
Auburn. -4
Alabama -2
Quad 2+3 games:
Auburn. -4
Alabama -11
Not sure the "100% moar q4" comment is the burn you think it is.
Posted on 2/3/25 at 9:34 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
The only threat to Auburn getting the #1 overall seed is if they lose 2-3 SEC games and Duke doesn't lose again
Agree. I think 28-3 (16-2) probably still keeps Auburn #1 overall ahead of Duke if Duke wins out…. Anything worse probably moves Duke ahead which is ridiculous considering their mid-major-esq schedule.
I think Bama winning out would also be a scenario where Auburn drops off from #1 overall.
If Auburn and Alabama split and both win out otherwise, you’d get this:
30-2 Auburn (17-1)
30-2 Duke
27-4 Alabama (16-2)
I think there would be a very decent shot Bama would get the #2 overall ahead of Duke considering the schedule. Though it wouldn’t matter because whichever SEC team doesn’t get the South (Atlanta) would want Indianapolis next, so Duke would go to Newark regardless.
Posted on 2/3/25 at 9:35 am to AUTiger789
Hey Alabama/Auburn fans, our two teams have been waffling back and forth between #1/#2 schedule strength on KenPom for a couple weeks now. Let's not try and act like either one isn't running through murderer's row this year.
Posted on 2/3/25 at 9:38 am to AUTiger789
quote:
I think there would be a very decent shot Bama would get the #2 overall ahead of Duke considering the schedule. Though it wouldn’t matter because whichever SEC team doesn’t get the South (Atlanta) would want Indianapolis next, so Duke would go to Newark regardless.
Yep - not sure it really matters a ton. The bigger thing is which of us is ahead of the other for Atlanta, but I think that considering Auburn's schedule (and just being very good) and what we have left while working from behind the odds of us jumping Auburn on the seed line are very, very slim. And Indianapolis is a pretty easy trip, too (especially for Central/Northern Alabama folks where a lot of our basketball fanbase is). We had a pretty solid turnout in Louisville a few years ago and Indianapolis isn't much further.
Auburn in Atlanta will be a zoo.
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