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The Playoff Race as I See It
Posted on 11/24/24 at 3:39 pm
Posted on 11/24/24 at 3:39 pm
ALREADY CLINCHED A SPOT
1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn St
5. Notre Dame
6. BIG 12 CHAMP (probably Arizona St)
7. MID MAJOR CHAMP (probably Boise St)
The Big 12 and Mid Majors are going to get just one team in, so Arizona St and Boise are just placeholder teams. But we know each of those leagues will get only one team in.
Those other 5 could lose next week and/or their conference title game and still make the playoff, IMO
PROBABLY CLINCHED
8. Georgia
9. Indiana
I think Georgia could lose to GA Tech and then go and lose the SEC title game and they would still probably be in… they just would need to look respectable in each contest.
I think Indiana could lose to Purdue and probably still get in, but they’d be sweating it out for sure.
WIN 1 AND YOU’RE FOR SURE IN
10. Tennessee
Just beat Vandy and you’re in.
WIN 1 AND YOU’RE PROBABLY IN
11. Miami
12. Texas A&M
It’s no guarantee, but I think if Miami beats Syracuse and Texas A&M beats Texas, you’d likely see them make the playoff even if they lost the conference championship game. I just don’t think the committee will punish teams for losing conference title games, especially if they are more of a brand (this does not apply to SMU).
WIN 2 AND YOU’RE IN
13. SMU
Win the ACC and you’re for sure in. Beat Cal and lose the ACC Title Game and you’ve got to probably hope Texas beats Texas A&M and win the beauty pageant against Bama and/or Ole Miss
MUST WIN OUT AND HOPE FOR OTHER GAME OUTCOMES
14. Ole Miss
15. Alabama
16. Clemson
17. S Carolina
All these teams need to win this weekend. The SEC teams also need Texas to beat A&M and need SMU to lose the ACC Title Game.
Clemson needs to win and hope Miami loses to Syracuse to give them a shot to win the ACC. I think they could potentially jump in without playing for the ACC if they destroy S Carolina convincingly and if SMU gets embarrassed by Miami. Also probably need Bama and Ole Miss to struggle this weekend.
1. Oregon
2. Ohio State
3. Texas
4. Penn St
5. Notre Dame
6. BIG 12 CHAMP (probably Arizona St)
7. MID MAJOR CHAMP (probably Boise St)
The Big 12 and Mid Majors are going to get just one team in, so Arizona St and Boise are just placeholder teams. But we know each of those leagues will get only one team in.
Those other 5 could lose next week and/or their conference title game and still make the playoff, IMO
PROBABLY CLINCHED
8. Georgia
9. Indiana
I think Georgia could lose to GA Tech and then go and lose the SEC title game and they would still probably be in… they just would need to look respectable in each contest.
I think Indiana could lose to Purdue and probably still get in, but they’d be sweating it out for sure.
WIN 1 AND YOU’RE FOR SURE IN
10. Tennessee
Just beat Vandy and you’re in.
WIN 1 AND YOU’RE PROBABLY IN
11. Miami
12. Texas A&M
It’s no guarantee, but I think if Miami beats Syracuse and Texas A&M beats Texas, you’d likely see them make the playoff even if they lost the conference championship game. I just don’t think the committee will punish teams for losing conference title games, especially if they are more of a brand (this does not apply to SMU).
WIN 2 AND YOU’RE IN
13. SMU
Win the ACC and you’re for sure in. Beat Cal and lose the ACC Title Game and you’ve got to probably hope Texas beats Texas A&M and win the beauty pageant against Bama and/or Ole Miss
MUST WIN OUT AND HOPE FOR OTHER GAME OUTCOMES
14. Ole Miss
15. Alabama
16. Clemson
17. S Carolina
All these teams need to win this weekend. The SEC teams also need Texas to beat A&M and need SMU to lose the ACC Title Game.
Clemson needs to win and hope Miami loses to Syracuse to give them a shot to win the ACC. I think they could potentially jump in without playing for the ACC if they destroy S Carolina convincingly and if SMU gets embarrassed by Miami. Also probably need Bama and Ole Miss to struggle this weekend.
10
Posted on 11/24/24 at 3:40 pm to AUTiger789
quote:
I think Georgia could lose to GA Tech and then go and lose the SEC title game and they would still probably be in… they just would need to look respectable in each contest.
UGA isn’t getting in with 4 losses. No one is
Posted on 11/24/24 at 3:43 pm to AUTiger789
quote:
I think Georgia could lose to GA Tech and then go and lose the SEC title game and they would still probably be in…
No. They can lose the SEC title but not GT as well. A 9-4 team with back to back losses and head to head losses to Alabama and Ole Miss is not getting in over them.
Posted on 11/24/24 at 3:45 pm to AUTiger789
What is sc beats tf out of Clem
Posted on 11/24/24 at 3:48 pm to theRealJesseD
quote:
UGA isn’t getting in with 4 losses. No one is
The SEC is getting a MINIMUM of 3 teams. We know Texas is one.
A 9-4 Georgia who split games with Texas would not be jumped by a 10-2 Tennessee who they soundly defeated. They might would both get in if Aggie won the SEC but Georgia would for sure be ahead of the Vols in that scenario barring like 40 point losses in both the next 2 games.
I also think if A&M beats Texas and then loses to Georgia, they would be in with 4 losses barring a 40-point blowout.
SEC and BIG 10 title game losses are not going to be viewed as losses by the committee.
This post was edited on 11/24/24 at 3:49 pm
Posted on 11/24/24 at 3:51 pm to AUTiger789
From what I’ve heard from talking heads, South Carolina is higher on the pecking order than Bama or Ole Miss if they beat Clemson.
Posted on 11/24/24 at 3:51 pm to U_south_cack
quote:
What is sc beats tf out of Clem
S Car needs to beat Clemson and hope for the following:
Texas beats A&M
Auburn beats Bama
Miss St beats Ole Miss
At that point, Texas, Georgia, and Tennessee are likely in and the last spot comes down to S Carolina and the ACC loser.
I think S Car goes in that scenario.
Posted on 11/24/24 at 3:52 pm to Auburn80
quote:
From what I’ve heard from talking heads, South Carolina is higher on the pecking order than Bama or Ole Miss if they beat Clemson.
I doubt it. Bama and Ole Miss both beat S Carolina head to head. I think the Gamecocks need to hope those teams lose this weekend.
Posted on 11/24/24 at 3:53 pm to AUTiger789
frick Auburn and all that but I'd rather lose to Auburn to avoid the slight possibility of watching us get our dick hairs waxed by Indiana...
Posted on 11/24/24 at 3:54 pm to theRealJesseD
quote:
UGA isn’t getting in with 4 losses. No one is
Could not agree more and this also blows a hole in your contention that A&M could beat Texas and lose to Georgia in SECCG. That would put A&M at 4 losses. They have to beat both Texas & Georgia to make the show.
Posted on 11/24/24 at 3:56 pm to AUTiger789
What sucks is a team like Miami getting in who struggled with freakin Wake Forest.
Ole Miss absolutely murdered Wake.
Also Indiana getting in is weak arse shite
Ole Miss absolutely murdered Wake.
Also Indiana getting in is weak arse shite
Posted on 11/24/24 at 4:19 pm to AUTiger789
This is all pretty spot on but Georgia can not lose to GT and the SEC title game. They must win at least one of those.
Posted on 11/24/24 at 4:22 pm to AUTiger789
quote:
WIN 1 AND YOU’RE PROBABLY IN
11. Miami
12. Texas A&M
No chance a 4-loss A&M team gets in.
Posted on 11/24/24 at 5:03 pm to AUTiger789
No team is getting in this year with 4 losses. 3 losses yes, 4 it wont happen even if its Georgia. Same with ATM.
Posted on 11/24/24 at 5:06 pm to AUTiger789
I know the committee sees it differently but Notre Dame losing to Northern Illinois should keep the Irish out.
Posted on 11/24/24 at 5:11 pm to GreyReb
I’d stop short on calling out Indiana. You lost to 3 teams currently receiving approximately 6 votes in the ap poll. Your coach’s inability to take 3 points this season has cost you a chance to play for a national championship
This post was edited on 11/24/24 at 5:13 pm
Posted on 11/24/24 at 5:13 pm to AUTiger789
quote:
MUST WIN OUT AND HOPE FOR ANOTHER QB
FIFY
Posted on 11/24/24 at 5:26 pm to AUTiger789
Some weird frickery could technically keep Ohio State out.
-lose at home to Michigan
-both IU and Penn St lose
-lose again to Oregon in the B10 title game (10-3)
-lose at home to Michigan
-both IU and Penn St lose
-lose again to Oregon in the B10 title game (10-3)
Posted on 11/24/24 at 5:34 pm to Oklahomey
quote:
I know the committee sees it differently but Notre Dame losing to Northern Illinois should keep the Irish out.
And Indiana's OOC being FIU, Western Illinois, and Charlotte?
Posted on 11/24/24 at 5:43 pm to AUTiger789
quote:
I doubt it. Bama and Ole Miss both beat S Carolina head to head. I think the Gamecocks need to hope those teams lose this weekend.
Not only did USCe lose to both of them, of the 3, USCe is the only one without a win vs the top 16. That's going to be a very hard sell.
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