mortgageman82
| Favorite team: | Texas  |
| Location: | Austin. TX |
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| Interests: | |
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| Number of Posts: | 338 |
| Registered on: | 7/24/2021 |
| Online Status: | Not Online |
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re: Elimination week- Texas at UGA and OU at Bama
Posted by mortgageman82 on 11/9/25 at 2:01 pm to dallastiger55
I understand the premise of the OP, and you have to treat it as such - but 9-3 Texas is likely in splitting the two tough remaining games and ensuring they take care of business against Arkansas.
It’s all there in the analytics. If Big 12 only sends one team, that is where this opens up. If Notre Dame loses well then a second spot opens up as well.
Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon
ACC
GO5
Big 12 - they’d have to get a two loss non champ invited for a second, doubtful
ND
Alabama, Georgia, OM, A&M
That is 11. Make a good argument for a 12th team that isn’t a 9-3 Texas - it won’t be a good argument. Only if OU ran the table at 10-2 perhaps. Maybe Michigan running the table and beating Ohio State. There just aren’t many plausible scenarios. 10-2 Vandy won’t get in over 9-3 Texas. So downvote all you want. It is what it is. Tech losing the Big 12 game MIGHT get them in for a second big to prevent such scenario as well. If ND loses and Big 12 only sends one then you have two spots to fill that aren’t listed with the aforementioned teams that seem to be fairly locked in to the playoff.
That being said they are huge games.
Georgia doesn’t want the pressure of needing to beat GT to make the playoff either.
It’s all there in the analytics. If Big 12 only sends one team, that is where this opens up. If Notre Dame loses well then a second spot opens up as well.
Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon
ACC
GO5
Big 12 - they’d have to get a two loss non champ invited for a second, doubtful
ND
Alabama, Georgia, OM, A&M
That is 11. Make a good argument for a 12th team that isn’t a 9-3 Texas - it won’t be a good argument. Only if OU ran the table at 10-2 perhaps. Maybe Michigan running the table and beating Ohio State. There just aren’t many plausible scenarios. 10-2 Vandy won’t get in over 9-3 Texas. So downvote all you want. It is what it is. Tech losing the Big 12 game MIGHT get them in for a second big to prevent such scenario as well. If ND loses and Big 12 only sends one then you have two spots to fill that aren’t listed with the aforementioned teams that seem to be fairly locked in to the playoff.
That being said they are huge games.
Georgia doesn’t want the pressure of needing to beat GT to make the playoff either.
1
Gameday for weekend of 15th
Posted by mortgageman82 on 11/4/25 at 7:39 am
So…who gets it?
Athens and Tuscaloosa have both hosted already this year.
Georgia has been on more recently and also was on a second time earlier when Tennessee hosted. Oklahoma hosted and Texas was at Ohio State when they did - each have an appearance.
Since Georgia has been on it twice I am going to say they give the nod to OU@Alabama. Of course if Alabama loses to LSU perhaps that moves the pendulum - same could be said for a Georgia loss at MSU. It will have been 3 weeks since they did an SEC game and Texas@Georgia and Oklahoma@Alabama are almost identical games in terms of the brands, eyeballs, W/L records, SEC stakes and CFP stakes. I don’t see another game, SEC or not, that worthies Gameday attention.
Athens and Tuscaloosa have both hosted already this year.
Georgia has been on more recently and also was on a second time earlier when Tennessee hosted. Oklahoma hosted and Texas was at Ohio State when they did - each have an appearance.
Since Georgia has been on it twice I am going to say they give the nod to OU@Alabama. Of course if Alabama loses to LSU perhaps that moves the pendulum - same could be said for a Georgia loss at MSU. It will have been 3 weeks since they did an SEC game and Texas@Georgia and Oklahoma@Alabama are almost identical games in terms of the brands, eyeballs, W/L records, SEC stakes and CFP stakes. I don’t see another game, SEC or not, that worthies Gameday attention.
re: AP Poll / 9 SEC in top 25
Posted by mortgageman82 on 11/2/25 at 1:25 pm to EV
I hate to break it to you but there is a very real chance Texas gets in with 3 losses. This is not bias, it’s not gloating, it is just facts. Take a dive into the analytics and it starts to make sense.
I’m not saying it’s deserved or anything.
This is why the ESPN has Texas at over 50% to make the CFP, because you can imagine our chances to win the remaining 3 games are not nearly that high of a clip.
Some key pieces fell yesterday with ACC losses and even OU beating Tennessee was a much better outcome if you are Texas versus a Tennessee win.
I’m not saying it’s deserved or anything.
This is why the ESPN has Texas at over 50% to make the CFP, because you can imagine our chances to win the remaining 3 games are not nearly that high of a clip.
Some key pieces fell yesterday with ACC losses and even OU beating Tennessee was a much better outcome if you are Texas versus a Tennessee win.
re: Playoffs (long post)
Posted by mortgageman82 on 10/31/25 at 12:51 pm to SchizoAg
I think you could possibly be right about A&M. I’m not saying it would be right but I think Aggies would be a little nervous in that scenarios. The road win at ND I think is key to help maybe offset something like that.
I do believe a lot of it will work itself out by the time the committee makes these decisions.
I do believe a lot of it will work itself out by the time the committee makes these decisions.
re: Playoffs (long post)
Posted by mortgageman82 on 10/30/25 at 6:42 pm to Safety Blitz
Has close to zero to do with me making a general playoff post about analytics, something I enjoy even outside of my team’s involvement.
Sorry I didn’t mention the tigahs.
Are you aware they suck and got their asses handed to them by Aggy in their own stadium?
Sorry I didn’t mention the tigahs.
Are you aware they suck and got their asses handed to them by Aggy in their own stadium?
Playoffs (long post)
Posted by mortgageman82 on 10/30/25 at 4:51 pm
I feel they are taking pretty good shape already…
List (not seeding)
1. GO5 rep
2. ND if they win out (like it or not I think this is a fairly safe bet, 100% out with a third loss and opens up another playoff spot.). Also could be in jeopardy if we finish with multiple 2 loss SEC teams.
3-5 Big Ten - seems hard to believe the representatives aren’t anything less or more than OSU, IU and Oregon.
6. Big 12 champ - I know there are some ways they could get two but I think when it washes out in the end it’ll be one - but obviously this along with the ACC has more variable to it.
7,8. ACC - as it stands I think the ACC has a better percentage chance of getting two than just one - I think assuming three bids between the two lesser leagues is the best way to guess as I don’t think both will have only one.
9-12 SEC - the SEC is looking pretty clear. A&M and Ole Miss seem like they are near locks at this point - hard to imagine how either would take a third loss that wasn’t in an SEC championship game with their current records and schedule ahead. Bama and Georgia obviously are best positioned for the other two. Texas, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Oklahoma and possibly even Missouri (long shot with QB issues and schedule) would still control their destinies for a playoff spot should they win out (Vandy could potentially lose one). Most of this will take care of itself but if my math is correct the possibility of 6 SEC teams with two overall losses or less still remains. Hard to imagine a 2 loss SEC team being excluded - so that would come at the expense of a Big 12 or ACC second team and/or ND.
I think any chance of a 3 loss team being included is diminishing quite a bit with each week as I look through the landscape and remaining schedules (aside from the inclusion of a possible 2 loss SEC team that loses in the SEC champ game.)
SEC bids - 3 is the floor but extremely unlikely.
4 - most possible number IMO
5 - less possible but very realistic
6 - statistically possible if Big 10 gets theee and ND is excluded - very long shot but could be justified with SEC scenario of 6 1-2 loss teams.
List (not seeding)
1. GO5 rep
2. ND if they win out (like it or not I think this is a fairly safe bet, 100% out with a third loss and opens up another playoff spot.). Also could be in jeopardy if we finish with multiple 2 loss SEC teams.
3-5 Big Ten - seems hard to believe the representatives aren’t anything less or more than OSU, IU and Oregon.
6. Big 12 champ - I know there are some ways they could get two but I think when it washes out in the end it’ll be one - but obviously this along with the ACC has more variable to it.
7,8. ACC - as it stands I think the ACC has a better percentage chance of getting two than just one - I think assuming three bids between the two lesser leagues is the best way to guess as I don’t think both will have only one.
9-12 SEC - the SEC is looking pretty clear. A&M and Ole Miss seem like they are near locks at this point - hard to imagine how either would take a third loss that wasn’t in an SEC championship game with their current records and schedule ahead. Bama and Georgia obviously are best positioned for the other two. Texas, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, Oklahoma and possibly even Missouri (long shot with QB issues and schedule) would still control their destinies for a playoff spot should they win out (Vandy could potentially lose one). Most of this will take care of itself but if my math is correct the possibility of 6 SEC teams with two overall losses or less still remains. Hard to imagine a 2 loss SEC team being excluded - so that would come at the expense of a Big 12 or ACC second team and/or ND.
I think any chance of a 3 loss team being included is diminishing quite a bit with each week as I look through the landscape and remaining schedules (aside from the inclusion of a possible 2 loss SEC team that loses in the SEC champ game.)
SEC bids - 3 is the floor but extremely unlikely.
4 - most possible number IMO
5 - less possible but very realistic
6 - statistically possible if Big 10 gets theee and ND is excluded - very long shot but could be justified with SEC scenario of 6 1-2 loss teams.
re: Is Texas the only school that got all 3 perms that they wanted?
Posted by mortgageman82 on 9/23/25 at 4:01 pm to FAT SEXY
Perhaps, but in Texas’ case it is just so clear cut on who they should be (and shouldn’t be). Certainly no conspiracy.
re: SEC announces nine game conference schedule starting in 2026
Posted by mortgageman82 on 8/21/25 at 5:01 pm to AHM21
One thing I thought of as a result of this is Texas will not play a TBD team in SEC play until 2028. We don’t know who this team is but it would be one of the 7 they would’ve added next year where they essentially change their opponents with OU. If Texas gets the common 3 everybody would expect them to this only allows for 6 games against those 7. So in short Texas won’t play one of Bama, Auburn, LSU, Ole Miss, Tenn, South Carolina or Missouri for first time in league play until 2028.
I am not sure the exact same would be true for OU as my mind hurts to think about it, but it would depend who their 3 rivalry matchups are against and how that compares to which of those they have played already.
Not hugely significant but a detail nonetheless.
I am not sure the exact same would be true for OU as my mind hurts to think about it, but it would depend who their 3 rivalry matchups are against and how that compares to which of those they have played already.
Not hugely significant but a detail nonetheless.
re: Coaches Poll out
Posted by mortgageman82 on 8/4/25 at 12:12 pm to halfadolla50
I was at that game. Technically it wouldn’t count for the statistic as it was the second game of the season. Each team had the gimme win type game slated the week before.
A lot of people do seem to remember it as opening week, even though it was not.
A lot of people do seem to remember it as opening week, even though it was not.
re: Texas will struggle on offensive line
Posted by mortgageman82 on 7/25/25 at 5:10 pm to Soonerd78
OP with a horrible take on the OL and only seeing 4/5 starters gone. Many of these starters were not high caliber, the OL last year was not elite. Williams false started a million times and it wasn’t a good run blocking unit.
One of the non starters from last year is actually pre-season all SEC in Goosby. Campbell is seasoned. Baker and Neto are 5 star OL who should be strong in the running game. Banks was the only huge loss honestly - that and needing to replace a center I will give you is usually important. Is it the unit with the most questions - yes, probably this - but it’s not going to be our undoing.
Team list double digit guys to the draft two years in a row. We were fine last year and will be more than fine this time around. Better RB’s this year with a seasoned Wisner and Baxter returning and a mobile combined with Sark’s playcalling ability will help mitigate weaknesses.
One of the non starters from last year is actually pre-season all SEC in Goosby. Campbell is seasoned. Baker and Neto are 5 star OL who should be strong in the running game. Banks was the only huge loss honestly - that and needing to replace a center I will give you is usually important. Is it the unit with the most questions - yes, probably this - but it’s not going to be our undoing.
Team list double digit guys to the draft two years in a row. We were fine last year and will be more than fine this time around. Better RB’s this year with a seasoned Wisner and Baxter returning and a mobile combined with Sark’s playcalling ability will help mitigate weaknesses.
re: What will Arch Manning need to do to not be considered a failed investment at Texas?
Posted by mortgageman82 on 7/19/25 at 2:19 pm to Cell of Awareness
At least one natty and one Heisman.
To a lesser degree, at least one SEC championship.
Given he has two years, I would take this all day, every day if you offered it to me now. More than anything we need that fifth natty, it’s been 20 years now.
To match the hype add to it probably going #1 overall in the draft but that doesn’t have nearly as much to do with his legacy status at Texas.
To a lesser degree, at least one SEC championship.
Given he has two years, I would take this all day, every day if you offered it to me now. More than anything we need that fifth natty, it’s been 20 years now.
To match the hype add to it probably going #1 overall in the draft but that doesn’t have nearly as much to do with his legacy status at Texas.
re: NCAA Softball | Texas Longhorns National Champs!!
Posted by mortgageman82 on 6/6/25 at 9:32 pm to Go Go Gata
So happy for these girls. This really is a team who deserves this.
Well deserved title Horns.
HOOK EM!!!
Well deserved title Horns.
HOOK EM!!!
re: WCWS Final | Thursday - Texas Tech 4 Texas 3
Posted by mortgageman82 on 6/5/25 at 9:18 am to beebefootballfan
Is Glasgo as goofy and clueless as he sounded in that post game presser or was that really just the shock of the moment all over them facing the questions from the media?
His demeanor and answers throughout that entire presser were just bizarre. It felt like some new coach, not a seasoned one. It’s a tough coaching moment but I don’t think he did anything there to instill confidence for his team going forward.
His demeanor and answers throughout that entire presser were just bizarre. It felt like some new coach, not a seasoned one. It’s a tough coaching moment but I don’t think he did anything there to instill confidence for his team going forward.
Sports off season
Posted by mortgageman82 on 6/3/25 at 1:52 pm
So I am beginning to see this is where the Rant insecurities and fears about Texas ratchet up the most. We are on the precipice of the spring sports ending and entering prime football offseason talk and here comes the huge influx of small dick posters about Texas.
Let’s just call it TDS. It’s holding these boards back.
God help the Rant when Texas gets football and or baseball titles - it’s all they can cling to - then they’ll have to recalibrate and figure out how to move the goalposts once more.
Let’s just call it TDS. It’s holding these boards back.
God help the Rant when Texas gets football and or baseball titles - it’s all they can cling to - then they’ll have to recalibrate and figure out how to move the goalposts once more.
re: Is Texas a paper tiger in all sports?
Posted by mortgageman82 on 6/3/25 at 1:17 pm to Landmass
I too have had some stupid takes but I don’t always actually post them, because I then think better of it and realize I’m not a dumbfrick.
And Murray State. Murray State…
And Murray State. Murray State…
re: Women's College World Series | Monday | Oklahoma vs Texas Tech 7 ET | ESPN
Posted by mortgageman82 on 6/2/25 at 1:12 pm to bigDgator
Good game Vols. Everybody will miss seeing Pickens.
re: Women's College World Series | Monday | Oklahoma vs Texas Tech 7 ET | ESPN
Posted by mortgageman82 on 6/2/25 at 1:11 pm to bigDgator
400 acres. lol
re: Women's College World Series | Sunday
Posted by mortgageman82 on 6/1/25 at 4:06 pm to Soonerd78
quote:
Texas fans lol so funny … some just started watching softball because they beat OU for the first time in 14 postseason tries lol… today we welcome in new bandwagon fans! Hello all! I said it from day one it wouldnt shock me if Tenn comes out of loser bracket and makes champ series … they are playing great softball . Texas has played great also should be some good games … can anyone beat Tech with Canaday ?
Stop reaching with these ridiculous posts. You’re clearly melting because of the loss. Texas softball is no way taking on tons of bandwagon fans. These fans have supported the team for several years and have gone through the OU dilemma. You act like we haven’t also been to the championship series twice in the last three years.
re: Women's College World Series | Thursday
Posted by mortgageman82 on 5/29/25 at 4:48 pm to dallastiger55
quote:
OU will run rule Texas like they did earlier this year. Texas was never close to beating them
Just talking out of your arse now. Do some research.
re: NCAA Softball Super Regionals - Sunday
Posted by mortgageman82 on 5/25/25 at 9:33 pm to dallastiger55
quote:
OU of course gets the layup bracket at home. They are going to cruise to a 5th straight
What are you talking about? One bracket is clearly superior and it is the side OU is on. Course the fact that softball brackets crossover in some ways mitigates this. I don’t know why baseball doesn’t crossover (they should). You shouldn’t get eliminated by a team you post a 1-1 record against. But that’s another post…
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