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SOGa+ Rankings & Picks for Saturday, 10/5
Posted on 10/4/24 at 11:57 am
Posted on 10/4/24 at 11:57 am
Missouri 22 - Texas A&M 21
Georgia 37 - Auburn 21
Ole Miss 29 - South Carolina 21
Alabama 44 - Vanderbilt 14
Tennessee 35 - Arkansas 14
UCF 37 - Florida 37
This post was edited on 10/4/24 at 1:58 pm
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Posted on 10/4/24 at 11:58 am to SummerOfGeorge
Too early OP.
Good work though.
Good work though.
Posted on 10/4/24 at 12:03 pm to Serraneaux
quote:
Too early OP.
May IMHO
Posted on 10/4/24 at 12:30 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
SOGa+ Rankings & Picks for Saturday, 10/5
Posted on 10/4/24 at 12:36 pm to SummerOfGeorge
You have Iowa's defense much below where other rankings have them
S&P has their defense #1. I think your number looks closer based on what i've seen of them this year. They don't look as good as in year's past
S&P has their defense #1. I think your number looks closer based on what i've seen of them this year. They don't look as good as in year's past
Posted on 10/4/24 at 12:41 pm to Buckeye06
Iowa sux always has suxed that is the most over rated team year over year by far
Posted on 10/4/24 at 12:42 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Sup SoG long time no see
Posted on 10/4/24 at 12:57 pm to Sun God
quote:
Sun God
My man! Hope your kids are still giving you hell!
Posted on 10/4/24 at 1:02 pm to Buckeye06
quote:
You have Iowa's defense much below where other rankings have them
S&P has their defense #1. I think your number looks closer based on what i've seen of them this year. They don't look as good as in year's past
Yea they've shown cracks that they haven't shown in the past - mainly they give up big plays way more often.
So far they are 59th in terms of drives where the opponent averages at least 10 yards per play at 13.9% of drives. And they have not played a good offense yet (Iowa St, Troy, Minnesota).
The past few years
2023 : #1 (3.6%)
2022 : #2 (5.1%)
2021 : #4 (7.0%)
That's a huge difference for a team that plays defense the way they do.
My metrics also play a pretty huge emphasis on big plays (both on offense and defense) combined with pts per drive, because in modern football things like constant success rate just don't matter nearly as much as they did in the past with the way defenses have adjusted to the NFL model.
This post was edited on 10/4/24 at 1:03 pm
Posted on 10/4/24 at 1:11 pm to SummerOfGeorge
You know it 
Posted on 10/4/24 at 1:27 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Aggies will both win and cover.
Posted on 10/4/24 at 1:35 pm to SummerOfGeorge
My man SOG!
I missed last week's thread.
What was your prediction for the Cats/Rebs game?
I missed last week's thread.
What was your prediction for the Cats/Rebs game?
Posted on 10/4/24 at 1:42 pm to Tornado Alley
Was swamped at work and didn't have time to piece it together.
I'd imagine it was probably about where the line was - Ole Miss by 14 or so. And that stats kind of played out that way in general, but 1/10 on 3rd down, Kentucky getting 3 4th downs and 3 trips inside the 35 ending with 3 pts will do that to you.
I'd imagine it was probably about where the line was - Ole Miss by 14 or so. And that stats kind of played out that way in general, but 1/10 on 3rd down, Kentucky getting 3 4th downs and 3 trips inside the 35 ending with 3 pts will do that to you.
Posted on 10/4/24 at 1:47 pm to SummerOfGeorge
PPD is an interesting one this year, especially for a team in the AP Top 5. I'm not really sure what to make of it though..
49 Georgia 0.56 Net PPD
Yes, they played Alabama, but that's ugly.
49 Georgia 0.56 Net PPD
Yes, they played Alabama, but that's ugly.
Posted on 10/4/24 at 1:50 pm to BigBro
quote:
PPD is an interesting one this year, especially for a team in the AP Top 5. I'm not really sure what to make of it though..
49 Georgia 0.56 Net PPD
Yes, they played Alabama, but that's ugly.
It is, but with it being early and some teams playing basically zero good defenses Georgia has played all their FBS games against solid defenses - Clemson, Kentucky, Alabama. They played Tennessee Tech, too, but those numbers aren't even included (I assume you got that from FEI). Per FEI they've played the #1 schedule of defenses to date, and the majority of the Top 25 has played a schedule that ranks #100 or lower.
But yea, I think the numbers are clear that to this point Georgia is solid on offense but they are certainly not great.
This post was edited on 10/4/24 at 1:52 pm
Posted on 10/4/24 at 1:51 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Is this adjusted for opponents?
Posted on 10/4/24 at 1:52 pm to narddogg81
quote:
Is this adjusted for opponents?
Yep - offensive stats adjusted for specific defensive SOS and visa versa for defensive stats.
Posted on 10/4/24 at 1:56 pm to Buckeye06
Other score projections
Oregon 43 - Michigan State 16
UNLV 28 - Syracuse 13
Ohio State 36 - Iowa 9
Indiana 25 - Northwestern 16
North Carolina 31 - Pitt 27
Penn State 37 - UCLA 12
Louisville 29 - SMU 27
Nebraska 21 - Rutgers 14
Clemson 36 - Florida State 19
USC 29 - Minnesota 25
Washington 27 - Michigan 23
Miami 30 - Cal 21
Oregon 43 - Michigan State 16
UNLV 28 - Syracuse 13
Ohio State 36 - Iowa 9
Indiana 25 - Northwestern 16
North Carolina 31 - Pitt 27
Penn State 37 - UCLA 12
Louisville 29 - SMU 27
Nebraska 21 - Rutgers 14
Clemson 36 - Florida State 19
USC 29 - Minnesota 25
Washington 27 - Michigan 23
Miami 30 - Cal 21
This post was edited on 10/4/24 at 1:59 pm
Posted on 10/4/24 at 2:05 pm to SummerOfGeorge
The Champ since 2017 has finished Top 5 in Net PPD.
2023 Michigan 2.50 (2nd)
2022 Georgia 2.43 (1st)
2021 Georgia 2.70 (1st)
2020 Alabama 2.59 (2nd)
2019 LSU 2.43 (4th)
2018 Clemson 2.26 (2nd)
2017 Alabama 1.87 (2nd)
7 years - average finish (2nd)
eta: yes, from bcftoys and you can actually go back to 2011 with only one exception.. Clemson was 7th in 2016
2023 Michigan 2.50 (2nd)
2022 Georgia 2.43 (1st)
2021 Georgia 2.70 (1st)
2020 Alabama 2.59 (2nd)
2019 LSU 2.43 (4th)
2018 Clemson 2.26 (2nd)
2017 Alabama 1.87 (2nd)
7 years - average finish (2nd)
eta: yes, from bcftoys and you can actually go back to 2011 with only one exception.. Clemson was 7th in 2016
This post was edited on 10/4/24 at 2:07 pm
Posted on 10/4/24 at 2:06 pm to BigBro
quote:
The Champ since 2017 has finished Top 5 in Net PPD.
2023 Michigan 2.50 (2nd)
2022 Georgia 2.43 (1st)
2021 Georgia 2.70 (1st)
2020 Alabama 2.59 (2nd)
2019 LSU 2.43 (4th)
2018 Clemson 2.26 (2nd)
2017 Alabama 1.87 (2nd)
7 years - average finish (2nd)
Yep, it's a huge stat for sure. Be interesting to see where things settle in the next 3-4 weeks as other teams play better competition and things settle in.
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